With the 2025 NASCAR season underway after a thrilling race last weekend, we head to Atlanta Motor Speedway for our next edition of NASCAR picks. 

The 2025 Ambetter Health 400 is on tap for this weekend at the Georgia speedway. While the track is a bit different than last week’s Daytona, it’s the same style of racing.

 

 

 

Ambetter Health 400 Betting Trends & Strategy

We’re expecting some more big wrecks, just spread out more throughout the race. Don’t forget the finish of the 2024 race was one of the closest in NASCAR history.

With that in mind, let’s see what our NASCAR picks look like for Atlanta Motor Speedway and the Ambetter Health 400.

 

 

 

Ambetter Health 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Ryan Blaney (+950 at FanDuel)

It’s a plate race and he’s in a Penske Ford. That combo is already good, then add to that his track history here in this layout and we can see how Blaney is the favorite. 

The 12-car hasn’t finished outside the top-9 at Atlanta since March of ’22 and has back-to-back top-3 finishes here. Blaney ran really well at Daytona last week and should run well again this week.

Austin Cindric (+1500 at FanDuel)

Cindric started P2 and finished P8 last week at Daytona and now comes to a track where he’s posted 5 straight top-12 finishes. While he doesn’t have a win in that time, the consistency is what we’re loving. 

That, and him being the biggest return of the Penske trio. If the speed and teamwork we saw from that garage last week shows up again in Atlanta, we could see Cindric snag his first win at the venue where he finished P4 last February.

Chase Elliott (+1600 at BetMGM)

It’s the home track for Elliott and that’s usually a good weekend to bet a driver. For Elliott especially who’s won here and ran really well when he’s not winning as well. The Hendrick cars tend to bring a lot of speed to plate tracks. 

Elliott has taken full advantage of that speed at Atlanta with a win and three top-10s in 5 races here since 2022, as well as the third-best average finish. All of that makes him a threat to win Sunday.

 

 

 

Ambetter Health 400 Predictions: Mid-Range Picks

Bubba Wallace (+2500 at Caesars)

Wallace is easily the best plate racer in the Toyota camp and that alone makes him worth a bet. Then we see these odds and it’s even more appealing.  While it’s been an up-and-down run at Atlanta since the redesign, Wallace did finish P5 in this race last year and has gotten stage points in two of the last three years. 

The 23-car has led laps each of the last three races here which means he’s capable of running up front. Now if only he leads the last one, this bet will hit.

Ross Chastain (+2600 at FanDuel)

Chastain has two runners-up finishes to his credit since Atlanta became a plate track. He’s also finished P13 or better in 5-of-the-6 races since 2022. 

That’s a lot of racing near the front of the pack where his aggressiveness pays off in plate races. If he can capture the speed he showed here previously, we could be seeing another watermelon being smashed Sunday afternoon.

Daniel Suarez (+2700 at FanDuel)

Suarez is simply too good here to be at these odds. One of just two drivers with five top-10s in the six plate races here, his average finish is also second-best in that span. 

Why is he at 27-1 then? Who knows. He moved up 23 spots last week and has three straight P2 or better finishes here. This smells like too good of a bet not to sprinkle some money on.

Alex Bowman (+2800 at BetRivers)

Bowman had a spectacular drive last week and has gotten better in nearly every race in the last six at Atlanta. Last Fall, Bowman finished P5 here after starting P11. 

Getting the touch of a track  is key to having a shot of winning at it and Bowman has clearly done that with Atlanta. Knowing the speed in the Hendrick stable at his style of race doesn’t hurt either at these odds.

 

 

 

Ambetter Health 400 Predictions: Long Shot Winners

Todd Gilliland (+4000 at BetMGM)

Gilliland has a bit of a reverse good thing going at Atlanta. He’s posted fastest enough times to start in the top-10 each of the last three trips to the Georgia track. 

However, he’s not yet finished inside the top-10. With a fast car last week at Daytona and his prior speed at Atlanta, Gilliland is in the running for a good finish, and perhaps a win after 400 miles.

Justin Haley (+6000 at DraftKings)

Haley has been known for his prowess in plate racing throughout his NASCAR career. With wins in all three series and three top-12 finishes at Atlanta since 2022, he’s a threat on Sunday. 

Not a huge threat, but a threat. Add to his history that the #7 car has nabbed top-5s the last 2 Ambetter Health 400s, Haley is looking interesting.

 

 

 

NASCAR Picks: Ambetter Health 400 Props - Atlanta Motor Speedway

Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish (+130 at BetRivers)

A hedge! We’re starting the props with a hedge on Suarez with the assumption that if he’s got a shot to win, he’ll be fighting for a top-10 finish. Considering he’s finished in the top-10 in 5-of-the-last-6 Atlanta races, it’s hard to turn down this value. 

The odds suggest about a 45% of this happening while history shows an 83% shot. Value… and a hedge? That’s the type of bet we like.

Chase Elliott Top-10 Finish (+100 at BetRivers)

The home track for Elliott has been good for him previously. Elliott has finished in the top-8 thrice in the last 5 races with an average finish of 8.6 — third best in the field. 

All of that, plus his strong run at Daytona last week, suggests that he should be a threat for another top-10 finish at track he’s shined at prior. 

Ross Chastain Top-10 Finish (+130 at BetRivers)

The art of hedging is strong this week. A third hedge with this bet on Chastain. If he doesn’t win, he should still be a threat to finish in the front of the pack. 

History has shown Chastain finishing in the top-10 half the time in this layout. The implied odds of this prop line are 43.5% which means there’s value in this line where it sits.

Todd Gilliland Top-10 Finish (+200 at Caesars)

Gilliland is perhaps the riskiest prop bet on this list, hence the longest odds. There’s a reason for that as he’s yet to finish in the top-10 in this format of Atlanta. 

However, that said, he has started in the top-10 each of the last three races here. If he can hang on to those starting spots for the end of the race, this is a nice return on a guy who clearly has speed in this style of racing.