Welcome to chaos. Talladega Superspeedway. The track where dreams are made — and wrecked — in one lap.

We know how this works: Draft. Dodge wrecks. Dodge heartbreak. Cross the line.

I dug into the stats, history, and 2025 trends to build the card you want this Sunday. Favorites, value plays, longshots — plus three high-value props you can feel good about. Let’s ride!

 

 

 

Jack Link's 500 at Talladega Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Ryan Blaney (+1000 DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you’re betting Talladega, Blaney has to be at the top of your list. Three wins here since 2019. Second-place finishes in both Talladega races before last fall's win. He’s led laps in 12 of the last 14 here — and Ford power should shine again. The best pure superspeedway driver in the field.

Brad Keselowski (+1400 Caesars Sportsbook)

Six career wins at Talladega — tied with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon for second all-time. He finished second in both Dega races last year. RFK Racing needs a lift, and nobody knows how to control the pack here better than Keselowski.

 

 

 

Jack Link's 500 Mid-Range Picks

Chase Elliott (+1600 BetMGM)

Two wins at Talladega. Quietly stacking top-10s this year (five already) and sitting fifth in points. Started midpack and still grabbed points at Daytona. If anyone’s undervalued to survive the wrecks and be there at the end — it’s Elliott.

Tyler Reddick (+2500 BetMGM)

Defending Jack Link’s 500 winner. 23XI Racing brings Toyota speed, and Reddick has the rare ability to pick runs and avoid chaos. Don’t sleep on the Toyotas — they’re overdue to steal one from Ford country.

 

 

 

Jack Link's 500 Long Shot Picks

Ryan Preece (+5000 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Still criminally undervalued. Finished third here in his first-ever Cup start. Now in RFK equipment with serious Ford superspeedway speed. Smart in the draft. Aggressive late when it matters.

John Hunter Nemechek (+8500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

He’s a survivor in chaos. Two top-10s at superspeedways already this year. Legacy Motor Club showed real speed at Daytona, and JHN can flat-out drive. At +8500? Absolutely worth a sprinkle.

 

 

 

Jack Link's 500 – Prop Bets

Ford Winning Manufacturer (+150 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Since 2023, Ford drivers have led 65.7% of superspeedway laps. They’ve dominated stage after stage — the finishes haven’t always caught up yet. That script is due to flip. Bet the Blue Ovals.

John Hunter Nemechek Top-5 Finish (+1200 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Longshot? Sure. But JHN has already proven he can climb through the chaos this year. Another top-5 hit would not shock — and at +1200, the payout is beautiful.

Tyler Reddick Top-3 Finish (+700 Bet365)

Reddick showed last year he can win here. If he survives the first two stages, he has the closing speed to rip a win — or easily sneak into a top 3. Toyota speed + Reddick's instincts = big value at +700.