Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
Total: 7
Cubs -140
Gameplay Predictions
Rockies
Nolan Arenado belted a home run in Game 163 yesterday against the Dodgers. It was his 38th of year which led the entire National League.
Kyle Freeland has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 consecutive outings and in 19 of his final 20 starts of the year.
Freeland faced the Cubs earlier this year and picked up a win, going seven innings while allowing three runs and striking out five.
Freeland actually struggled MORE on the road posting a 3.23 ERA compared to a 2.40 mark at home.
Against left-handed pitching this year, the Rockies ranked 3rd in OPS, 2nd in ISO and 2nd in wOBA.
Five guys on the Rockies roster have taken Jon Lester deep; Nolan Arenado , Matt Holliday , Chris Iannetta , DJ LeMahieu and Carlos González
Holliday has the best numbers in terms of BvP off of Lester as he’s gone 10-for-27 with the homer and four runs batted in.
Trevor Story , Nolan Arenado and DJ LeMahieu all ended the year hitting .325 or better and with wOBA’s at .389-plus against left-handed pitching.
The season series between these two teams are knotted at three wins a piece.
Cubs
Anthony Rizzo finished the season with 101 runs batted in. That was the fourth consecutive season he’s accomplished that feat.
Jon Lester comes into this start winning three consecutive starts and four of his last five.
Lester, much like Freeland, comes into this game hot, allowing three earned runs or fewer in eight straight games. He’s thrown two shutouts over his last three games.
Lester faced the Rockies earlier in the year and won his start, just like Freeland did, throwing 5.2 innings allowing two runs (zero earned) while striking out five.
Javier Báez , Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist are the three Cubs hitters with numbers that stand out against left-handed pitching. Baez hit .306 with a .395 wOBA, Bryant notched .372 AVG and .473 wOBA while Zobrist batted a cool .333 with a .352 wOBA.
Daniel Murphy comes into this game really hot, hitting .381 with a .910 OPS over his last 10 contests.
The Cubs ranked 6th in AVG vs. LHP, but everything else was league average - 13th in OPS, 14th in wOBA.
Willson Contreras has only hit one home run since August 1st and has just three since the All-Star break.
Pregame Props
1. Either team scores in the 1st Inning YES 4 / NO 1.7
NO. Everything in this one feels like a pitchers dual. Both pitchers have faced today’s opponent and both picked up a win and looked really good in doing so. Also, we only have a seven run implied total, so I don’t expect there to be a lot of offense in this one.
2. Either team has a 3 up, 3 down Inning YES 3.4 / NO 2.1
YES. With the amount of playoff experience Jon Lester has, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest bit to see him come out and shut the door right away.
3. A COL batter reaches a full count in the 1st Inning YES 3.8 / NO 1.8
NO. Because I answered YES in question two, this is kind of contingent on the answer to that one. I expect a quick, efficient inning for the veteran southpaw and a young, anxious Rockies team could be up there hacking.
4. COL leadoff batter reaches base YES 5 / NO 1.5
NO. Charlie Blackmon is really, really good, and he even hits lefties well, but I’m going all in with Lester here and going with the answer to question two as I expect him to have a 1-2-3 inning.