New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

Total: 8.5

Philadelphia -185

Game Play Predictions

New York

  • The six innings Jason Vargas threw his last time out was the most innings he’s thrown in any start this season.

  • In eight road starts this season, Vargas has an 8.91 ERA and has allowed his opponents to bat .331.

  • Brandon Nimmo , the Mets hottest hitter, comes into this one hitting .429 with an OPS over 1.300 over his last two games. The only problem is he’s sat out the last two games with an injured finger.

  • Michael Conforto is hitting .296 with a .902 OPS since the All-Star break.

  • Todd Frazier has five multi-hit games over his last 10 and is hitting .378 over that span. He’s also averaged a run driven in per game over that same timeframe.

  • Jeff McNeil has performed well against right-handed pitching this season hitting .296 with a .371 wOBA. Nick Pivetta has struggled vs. LHH allowing a .303 AVG with a .364 wOBA.

  • The Mets plan on calling up Dominic Smith prior to Sunday’s game. He’s hitting .255 at Triple-A this year.

  • José Bautista is hitting .151 with a .591 OPS in the month of August. He also has only posted a .277 wOBA this month.

 

Philadelphia

  • Nick Pivetta has three consecutive starts of six innings of two earned runs or fewer and six plus strikeouts.

  • Pivetta has an ugly looking 4.37 ERA but has an impressive xFIP of 3.21 and a 3.22 SIERA.

  • The Phillies rank 15th in the league since the All-Star break versus left-handed pitching.

  • Asdrubal Cabrera is 7-for-16 with a home run but is only hitting .235 over his last 10 games.

  • Wilson Ramos is hitting .326 with a .422 wOBA against left-handed pitching on the year.

  • Maikel Franco is riding a five-game hit streak with at least one hit in eight of his last nine games.

  • Carlos Santana has the deepest history with Vargas going 9-for-41 against him, which only translates to a .220 AVG.

  • After hitting .311 in July, Nick Williams is hitting .296 in August. He’s hitting .308 since the All-Star break.

 

Pregame Props

1. Either team scores in the 1st Inning

Since the All-Star break there have only been FOUR teams to score more runs than the Mets. WinView is heavily favoring the NO side here, but the Phillies are facing arguably the worst pitcher in baseball right now in Jason Vargas . I’m thinking we take a shot against Jason Vargas and his 8.92 road ERA and say YES, a team (Philly) scores here.

2. Either team has a 3 up, 3 down inning (No one reaches base)

I’m on the fence about this one. Depending on if Brandon Nimmo plays could make a big difference. I’m going to go with NO because I don’t think highly of Vargas and I think Nimmo does play, which presents Pivetta with an issue.

3. Both teams combine for 30 or more pitches in the 1st Inning 3.5 2

Jason Vargas might throw 30 pitches himself in the first. Two starts ago it took him 14 pitches to allow three runs and get just one out before being pulled. And that’s just one pitcher. We’re being asked for a COMBINED pitch count. I’m going YES with ease here.

4. PHI records the first 2 outs of the 1st Inning in 10 pitches or fewer 3 2

I mentioned above it likely depends on Brandon Nimmo ’s health. Nimmo sees a lot of pitches (51 BB/118 K) so if he’s in the lineup, he could stretch out a pretty long at-bat. I’m going NO thinking Nimmo does in fact play.

5. A NYM batter reaches a full count 4 1.7

Nick Pivetta throws A LOT of strikes, which is why he’s really good at times and really bad others. He has a 10.96 K/9 compared to a 2.44 BB/9. He also has an elite 12.1-percent swinging strike rate, so that obviously helps him limit his pitch count the more his opponent swings. I’m going to go with NO here.

6. NYM batters combine to swing and miss 3 or more times in the 1st Inning 3.8 1.9

As I just mentioned in the question prior, Pivetta is striking people out at a high clip (10.96) and inducing a lot of swings and misses as well (12.1-percent). I’m going YES here and would almost be willing to use my 1000 point one shot guess on this one.

7. NYM leadoff batter reaches base 4.6 1.7

If it’s not Brandon Nimmo , Randy Jackson said it best… “it’s a NO from me dawg”