Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

Houston Astros -190

Games Total: 7.5

 

Game Play Predictions

Seattle Mariners

  • The Mariners face Astros righty Charlie Morton , who is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts against Seattle this season.
  • Morton has a 48.9 percent groundball rate this season, good for 13th among qualified starters.
  • Morton’s 11.44 K/9 ranks sixth among qualified starters. His 3.63 BB/9 is 14th highest among qualified starters.
  • Morton has a 1.57 ERA the first time through the order, a 2.11 ERA the second time through and a 5.23 ERA the third time through the order.
  • The Mariners have the lowest walk rate in the majors against right-handed pitchers at 6.6 percent. They make up for it to some degree by striking out just 19.9 percent of the time against righties.
  • The Mariners have taken the first two games in this series thanks to a lineup shakeup. Mitch Haniger has moved into the leadoff spot with Denard Span batting second and Jean Segura moving down to third.
  • Haniger has been great of late, going 8-for-12 with a home run over his last three games.
  • Denard Span enters Saturday with three consecutive multi-hit games, and he is 10-for-22 with one strikeout during his six-game hitting streak. Span is 5-for-11 with two walks and zero strikeouts against Charlie Morton .
  • Nelson Cruz is 9-for-28 with two home runs over the last seven days. Cruz has 21 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season, good for ninth in MLB.
  • Jean Segura is 10-for-39 with zero walks against Charlie Morton .
  • Dee Gordon is 2-for-20 over the past seven days.

 

Houston Astros

  • The Houston Astros are finally starting to get healthy, with Carlos Correa coming off the disabled list and going 0-for-3 with a walk Friday.
  • For as good as Wade LeBlanc has been this season, he has struggled against Houston. LeBlanc is 0-1 with a 10.22 ERA in four appearances (two starts) against Houston this season.
  • LeBlanc has gotten by with a 19.4 percent strikeout rate thanks to his 5.5 percent walk rate.
  • LeBlanc has been pretty fly ball prone this season, as his 37.7 percent groundball rate is the 14th lowest among players with at least 110 innings.
  • LeBlanc has struggled in August, with a 6.75 ERA in two starts.
  • LeBlanc has been a bit shaky to start games, but he usually settles down in the middle innings. LeBlanc has a 4.50 ERA the first time through the order, a 1.99 ERA the second time through the order and a 5.68 ERA the third time through the order.
  • The Astros have crushed lefties this season. Their .339 wOBA against lefties is the third highest in MLB.
  • Houston’s 20.0 percent strikeout rate against lefties is the third lowest in MLB, and their 8.8 percent walk rate against lefties ranks 14th.
  • Marwin González is 10-for-22 with four walks and two strikeouts over the last seven days.
  • Tyler White is 5-for-12 with two home runs in his last three games.
  • Yuli Gurriel has struggled of late, going 1-for-17 over his last five games.
  • Houston has gotten very little from their catchers with Brian McCann out. Martin Maldonado , Max Stassi and Evan Gattis are a combined 4-for-31 over the last seven days.
  • Evan Gattis is 6-for-11 with three home runs against Wade LeBlanc .
  • Josh Reddick is 5-for-10 with a homer against Wade LeBlanc .
  • Alex Bregman has a .961 OPS against lefties this season. His strikeout rate against lefties is just 10.6 percent.

 

Pre-Game Props

  1. Either team scores in the 1st Inning. YES.

Wade LeBlanc has struggled a bit the first time through the order, and he is probably going to face Alex Bregman , the red-hot Marwin González and Carlos Correa in the first inning. Charlie Morton is less likely to give up a run in the first, but the top of Seattle’s lineup has been great since they moved Mitch Haniger into the leadoff spot.

  1. Both teams record a strikeout in the 1st Inning. NO.

The Astros have the third lowest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties, and Wade LeBlanc has just an 18.6 percent strikeout rate against righties this season. Charlie Morton is a near-lock for a strikeout in the first, but I am confident the Astros will put the ball in play.

  1. Either team reaches scoring position in the 1st inning. YES.

The payout for Yes is pretty good, and perhaps more importantly, the payout for No is pretty low. If you said Yes for the first question, I think you pretty much have to say yes to this as well.

  1. A SEA batter reaches a full count in the 1st inning. YES.

When you get a starting pitcher with a walk rate as high as Charlie Morton ’s, you are going to get a lot of full counts. Jean Segura has never met a pitch he didn’t want to swing at, which is a problem, but Mitch Haniger and Denard Span are quite capable of going deep into a count.

  1. Charlie Morton throws 17 or fewer pitches in the 1st inning. NO.

Morton has averaged 16.1 pitches per plate appearance this season, so he has gone 18+ in plenty of innings. If a Mariner reaches a full count as I am predicting, Morton will be well on his way to topping 17 pitches.

  1. A SEA batter fouls off 3 or more. YES.

Denard Span and Jean Segura are pretty good at fouling off pitches and staying alive in at-bats. Also, if Yes is correct, that probably means I’m getting questions 4 and 5 correct as well.