Underdog MLB Top Plays: Yu Darvish Racking Up K's

Published: Apr 07, 2022
What an offseason it has been, but today is a beautiful day, as it is 2022 MLB Opening Day! We have a nice board over at Underdog Fantasy for Major League Baseball’s Opening Day slate, and I am feeling confident with these MLB prop bets today. Over at Underdog, we just have to pick player props correctly, and the more you pick and get right, your multiplier intensifies. Fun, right? Let’s start the season on a high note with a couple of winners over at Underdog Fantasy for Major League Baseball’s Opening Day slate.
MLB Opening Day Top Underdog Plays
OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Yu Darvish can rack up strikeouts in bunches and he faces an Arizona squad that dealt with strikeout issues last season. Darvish allowed a 6.65 ERA in five outings against Arizona last year, but his 3.74 FIP and 2.83 xFIP paint a much different picture. Plus, he posted a 30.5-percent strikeout rate against Arizona in 2021. This line at 5.5 strikeouts seems low for a pitcher of Darvish’s caliber in this matchup.
OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Patrick Corbin had a very good spring, don’t get me wrong. However, I’m trusting Pete Alonso’s numbers over 30 career at-bats against Corbin compared to two good spring outings from a pitcher who had a disastrous 2021 season. Alonso has four home runs in 30 at-bats against Corbin for his career, not to mention a 1.210 OPS and .471 wOBA. For Alonso’s career, he’s posted an .886 OPS against southpaws, a .957 OPS on the road, a .931 OPS in March/April, and a 1.161 OPS against the Nationals.
OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Tylor Megill is getting the nod for the Mets and that should be music to Juan Soto’s ears. Last year, righties had just a .250 wOBA against Megill while left-handed hitters posted a lofty .418 wOBA and .315 batting average. For his career, Soto has posted a .307 batting average and .426 wOBA against right-handed pitching and, for what it’s worth, he’s killed the Mets throughout his career to the tune of a .311 batting average and .995 OPS. Soto tends to really heat up as the weather gets warmer, but he’s heading into the 2022 season coming off a productive spring (.308 AVG, 1.086 OPS).
OVER 0.5 Runs
There are quite a few props for players for Milwaukee that are enticing today, but with Wong leading off, taking the over on 0.5 runs is my play of the game. Kyle Hendricks was brutal this spring, allowing six home runs in 11.1 innings (four starts), alongside a .347 BAA, 1.76 WHIP and 9.53 ERA. Lefties hit .287 against Hendricks last season and Wong posted a .310 batting average through 29 spring at-bats. Oh, I almost forgot, Wong has a .423 wOBA for his career against Hendricks.
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.