MLB DFS Value Vault September 25: Matt Olson Breaks out of Slump Today Against Kyle Gibson
While everyone worries about what star running back or top wide receiver they want to fit in their NFL DFS lineups today, let’s take advantage of those not dedicating their full attention to today’s Major League Baseball slate! I don’t love the pitching on the mound, especially from a value perspective, but there are a couple of players you can look at to be your second starter for a fair price point in your MLB DFS lineups. Offensively speaking, from a value perspective, I found myself coming back to three teams over and over again: Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, and Cleveland Guardians. There are some potential weather concerns on today’s main slate, including with some of the teams above, so leading up to lineup lock, I’d recommend keeping a close eye on our weather center for the most up to date information concerning Mother Nature around the ballpark. Here are my favorite value plays for your daily fantasy baseball lineups for Sunday, September 25.
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
José Suarez, LAA (8,400 FD/$7,900 DK/$37 Yahoo) - Suarez isn’t a big time strikeout guy, but he does have an 8.50 K/9 for the season, and he gets to face a Minnesota lineup today that has the eighth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws over the last two weeks. To the Twins’ credit, they have a decent batting average against lefties during that span, but Suarez has a 3.83 ERA on the road this year, and the Twins should play up his strikeouts a bit. I don’t like him as much on FanDuel where you only start one pitcher, but I’m fine taking a flier on him as my second starter on DraftKings or Yahoo.
Nick Lodolo, CIN ($9,000 DK/$37 Yahoo) - Alright, so this one is a bit risky, because Milwaukee has hit left-handers really well of late. In fact, they have been damn good against lefties. However, there are some instances where you have to bet on talent, and Lodolo has a boatload of it. He has seven or more strikeouts in four straight starts, and he’s been a beast at home this year, posting a 2.98 ERA and 31.8 percent strikeout rate while at home. I’m betting on talent here over the situation/matchup.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
AJ Pollock, CWS ($2,400 FD/$3,500 DK) - I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. When a lefty is on the mound facing the White Sox, you must consider Pollock. He’s hitting lefties at a .287 clip this season, not to mention an impressive .963 OPS and .357 ISO. The veteran outfielder has three home runs in his last 28 at-bats, while sporting a .286 average, .643 SLG, and 167 wRC+ during his last seven contests. Detroit’s Tyler Alexander struggles on the road and against right-handers, while Pollock crushes lefties. See the appeal here?
Matt Olson, ATL ($2,800 FD/$9 Yahoo) - Olson is struggling mightily of late, and I won’t deny that. However, he’s 9-for-21 with four home runs in his career against Kyle Gibson, good for a .429 average and .609 wOBA. Kyle Gibson has been putrid in September, allowing a 9.68 ERA and 2.04 HR/9 this month, but more specifically, he’s allowed left-handed hitters to hit .360 with an .800 SLG and 4.8 HR/9 against him! Yes, Olson has been bad this month, but hopefully a recent day off cleared his mind a bit, and he’ll have a big day against a familiar opponent.
Dansby Swanson, ATL ($13 Yahoo) - BvP typically stands for batter versus pitcher, but I feel like today it might mean Braves versus Phillies. Swanson is 6-for-8 in his career against Kyle Gibson, and as you read above, Gibson is struggling of late, posting a 9.68 ERA and 2.04 HR/9 over his last four starts. Swanson may be struggling a bit in September, but he has six hits over his last five games, and a matchup against a familiar foe could be just what the doctor ordered. He’s too cheap to simply ignore on Yahoo today. Much like with Olson today, keep an eye on the weather for this game. They should be able to get it in, but it’s worth monitoring leading up to lineup lock.
Oscar Gonzalez, CLE ($2,500 FD/$4,000 DK/$13 Yahoo) - It’s hard to fade Gonzalez against lefties. The Cleveland outfielder has a .505 SLG and .846 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, and he just hit two home runs last night! He’s hitting .303 in the month of September with six home runs, five doubles, 12 runs scored, and 18 RBI, and I’m not sure if Texas’ Cole Ragans, who has struggled against right-handers, is going to be the one that slows down Gonzalez.
Amed Rosario, CLE ($3,100 FD/$15 Yahoo) - During his six game hit streak, Rosario is hitting .308, and has put up fantasy points all across the board, as he’s homered once, has one double, one triple, six runs scored, four RBI, and three stolen bases! He gets to face lefty Cole Ragans today, who has allowed right-handed hitters to hit .300 with a .405 wOBA against him this season, and Rosario has a .289 average, .347 wOBA, and .805 OPS against southpaws in 2022.
Honorable Mentions:
- Jon Berti ($2,700 FD/$12 Yahoo)
- Mike Yastrzemski ($10 Yahoo)
- Luis Rengifo ($2,500 FD/$4,300 DK)
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