MLB DFS Value Vault October 5: Javier Baez Against A Southpaw In Regular Season Finale
Good afternoon, #FAmily! It’s the last day of the Major League Baseball regular season and we have a packed early slate for MLB DFS lineups. First of all, thank you to our readers and the FA Discord crew – it’s been a great ride this year so far, but there is much more to come with the MLB DFS postseason! This afternoon’s DFS slate starts at 4:00p ET on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo Fantasy with every MLB team in action. Be sure to check our MLB Weather Center before lock for MLB weather report updates. Plus we have MLB Lineups, MLB daily projections, and an MLB DFS lineup builder in our Fantasy Alarm MLB Tools page. To get the big arms and bats in your daily fantasy baseball lineups you will need to find some value plays and that’s where we come in. I have spent the morning researching and coming up with the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate. So, let’s get right into it and open Wednesday’s MLB DFS Value Vault for October 5th.
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
Johan Oviedo (PIT) – $5.7K DK/$6.3K FD/$33 Yahoo
This is a very tricky slate after the top four arms of Ohtani, Valdez, Burnes and Kershaw. Johan Oviedo has shown some decent stuff the past couple of weeks and seems to be fully stretched out with 103 pitches in his last start and 84 in his start before that. The young right-hander will be facing a Cardinals offense that may be resting key hitters and he faced this same team in his last start. He was fairly effective in that start and earned a quality start by only allowing two earned runs while striking out four at Busch Stadium. He was even better at home against the Cubs in his start before the Cardinals when he put up 32 DK fantasy points when he allowed no earned runs and struck out seven over seven innings. Since the beginning of September, Oviedo has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.60 FIP plus he has struck out 27 batters in 26.2 innings.
Elieser Hernandez (MIA) – $6.3K DK/$5.5K FD/$27 Yahoo
Elieser Hernandez has actually shown major league ability with solid games earlier this season against the Phillies and Braves (21 DKFP/17 DKFP). The right-hander was called up from Triple-A Jacksonville on Monday and will start today’s the final game of the season against Atlanta. Hernandez has been at a full workload as a Triple-A starter and had 68 strikeouts in 57 innings (4-4/4.11 ERA) at Jacksonville. The Braves strikeout 24% to right-handed pitching and if Hernandez gets to face a watered-down lineup, he has a chance for a double-digit fantasy point game.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
Javier Báez (DET) – $3.9K DK/$2.8K FD
Javier Báez has struggled in his first season in Detroit (.240 BA with 17 HR/66 RBIs) but he has woken up down the stretch with 5 HR/11 RBI over his last 20 games with a .241 ISO. He has always had an issue with strikeouts and pitch selection but one thing that Baez continues to be good at is hitting left-handed pitching. On the season he is slashing .301/.326/.511 with a .837 OPS on the split compared to .217/.262/.356 and a.618 OPS to righties. Tonight he gets to face a very hittable southpaw in Marco Gonzales and his 5.37 xFIP. Gonzales allows a .199 ISO to right-handed bats and a 35% hard contact. Baez is my home run call of the slate.
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT) – $3.4K DK/$2.7K FD/$11 Yahoo
Ke’Bryan Hayes has had a mediocre season. He is hitting .250 with 7 HR/41 RBI with a.317 OBP. He is, though, on a mini hot streak with three multi-hit games out of his last eight played and today will face southpaw Matthew Liberatore of the Cardinals. Liberatore was called up from Triple-A so that they could rest their key arms for the postseason, and he was not very successful in his earlier major league appearances as he went 2-1 with a 5.46 ERA/1.69 WHIP. He struggled especially against right-handed bats allowing .338 ISO/.414wOBA with a 37% hard contact and 49% flyball rate. Hayes is a better hitter against lefties, especially at home where he hit for a .290 average, .807 OPS and 130 wRC+ on the split.
Other Top MLB DFS Values:
- Rodolfo Castro (PIT) – $3.3K DK/$2.6K FD/$13 Yahoo
- Mark Canha (NYM) – $3.7K DK/$2.2K FD/$11 Yahoo
- Gavin Sheets (CWS) – $2.5K DK/$2.4K FD/$9 yahoo
- Franmil Reyes (CHI) – $2.7K DK/$2.5K FD/$8 Yahoo
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Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.