MLB DFS Value Vault May 3: Tyler Mahle Set to Blank the Brewers
Welcome to another edition of the DFS Alarm Value Vault where we bring you the top MLB daily fantasy value plays for your DFS lineups. Today, we have a huge night of DFS baseball on tap as DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo Fantasy all bring us 11-game slates starting 7:05p EST. There will be a large player pool to choose from as well as a matchup in Coors Field, so it’s our job to find the top point-per-dollar plays as well as minimum-priced punts to vault you past the competition. Don't forget to use the fantasy baseball lineup generator when building your DFS lineups! So, let’s get the vault open and see the top MLB value plays of Tuesday night.
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
$6100 - DraftKings / $9500 - FanDuel / $36 - Yahoo
Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann is drawing comparisons to a 2019 John Means in Baltimore. Just like Means did, he is fooling batters with a changeup-heavy arsenal en route to an amazing start to the season where he is 1-1 with a 0.93 ERA. He has also allowed zero runs in three of his first four games, with a 21:6 K:B across 19.1 innings. Tonight, he will be facing a Twins offense that is striking out 24.7% to left-handers with a .146 ISO and 107 wRC+. At $6100, Zimmerman is a steal on DraftKings.
$6600 - DraftKings / $7500 - FanDuel / $36 - Yahoo
Tyler Mahle was an extreme splits pitcher last year but not in the conventional righties vs. lefties way. He was a much better pitcher away from Great American Ballpark. At home, he was 5-4 with a 5.63 ERA; 1.48 WHIP and allowed 19 home runs. On the road, Mahle was 8-2 with a 2.30 ERA; 1.04 WHIP and only allowed five home runs. In this small 2022 season, it’s the same stadium (besides a hiccup at Dodger Stadium) where his best game of the year has been at Atlanta when he struck out seven in five innings with no earned runs.
Tonight, Mahle will be in Milwaukee facing a Brewers team that is striking out 23% to right-handers with one of the worst swinging strike rates in the game (12.7%). With a 27% strikeout rate and 4.17xFIP of his own, Mahle is worth a shot in GPPs as low-owned value.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
$2900 - DraftKings / $2800 - FanDuel / $10 - Yahoo
Don’t look now but the phenom Bobby Witt Jr. is heating up. The #1 prospect in the game struggled a bit out of the gate but has quietly put together a 10-game hitting streak. During this streak, he is batting .316 (12-for-38) with three doubles and two RBIs.
Tonight, he faces Dakota Hudson who has a 4.85 xFIP, walks batters (10%), and doesn’t miss many bats (18% K rate). With the way Witt Jr. is hitting, we should see the streak continue and his first MLB long ball is only around the corner.
$2800 - DraftKings / $2900 - FanDuel / $18 - Yahoo
Yadiel Hernandez is quietly one of the hottest hitters in baseball. The Nationals outfielder is slashing .340/.368/.509 with an OPS of .877. Over the last 7 days, he is hitting .350 and ruthlessly crushing the strong side of the platoon with a .366 wOBA and 40% hard contact against right-handers.
Tonight, he travels to Coors - the #1 hitter-friendly park in all of baseball. The matchup is not the greatest as Germán Márquez is a good pitcher but at the near-minimum price on all sites, Hernandez is worth a shot as a punt play in all formats.
$3900 - DraftKings / $2800 - FanDuel / $20 - Yahoo
Austin Meadows a value play? If he is under $4000, I consider it a value and Meadows is at one of his lowest price points of the year. The salary is a head-scratcher because Meadows has been solid at the plate slashing .319/.420/.406 with an OPS of .826.
Known as a righty-smasher in Tampa, the matchup doesn’t get much better tonight for Meadows. He has a near-elite .275 ISO/.369 wOBA with a 41.5% contact and 49% flyball rate while right-hander Bryse Wilson has been terrible for the Pirates. Wilson has a 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.46xFIP and isn’t missing many bats (14.1% K rate). Lock and load Austin Meadows tonight.
$2000 - DraftKings / $2500 - FanDuel / $15 - Yahoo
Chad Pinder is sitting at bare-minimum price tonight and you could do a lot worse, especially when he has the splits advantage over left-handed Ryan Yarborough who will be making his 2022 debut tonight for the Rays.
Pinder should be leading off and has solid platoon numbers against southpaws- .236 ISO/.345 wOBA with a 52.6% hard-hit rate. He is also on a little hot streak with three hits over his last six at-bats and has gone 5-for-11 with a home run, two RBIs and a run in the three days since returning from the COVID-19 list. Pinder is slashing .290/.283/.500 with a .783 OPS on the season.
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.