MLB DFS Value Vault July 24: Mitch Keller in a Groove
Happy Sunday and no better way to end your weekend than with some major league baseball! Sunday baseball has a reputation for being out of the ordinary, so fantasy baseball managers must be on their toes as they build their MLB DFS lineups. Today’s DFS slate starts at 1:35p ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo Fantasy. DraftKings and FanDuel will both cover nine games while Yahoo brings us 14 games throughout the afternoon. The weather forecast looks pretty good besides some questions in the Twins/Tigers game, so far but make sure to check our MLB Weather Center before lock. We also have MLB Lineups, MLB Vegas Odds plus projections and a lineup builder in our DFS Alarm MLB Tools page. To get the big arms and bats in your lineups you will need to find some value plays and that’s where we come in. I have spent the morning researching and coming up with the best point per dollar plays on the slate. So let’s get right into it and open Sunday’s MLB DFS Value Vault..
DFS PITCHING VALUE
Ian Anderson (ATL) $6.5K DK/$36 Yahoo
On FanDuel Ian Anderson is overpriced but he comes in as a value on the other two sites today. I am not in love with pitching value on this slate, but Anderson does have one of the best matchups of the day against the struggling Angels. This is an offense that is missing Mike Trout and is striking out a league worst 27.4% to right-handed pitching. Anderson came up a few years ago labeled as one of the top young pitchers in the game but has really had bad command and will implode if he is not on his game, no matter what team he is facing. He has two games this season where he scored over 20 DKFP, one was in early April (Padres) and then in June he had a big outing against the Cubs. Anderson could very well have a huge game today facing a projected Angels lineup that is striking out 30%+ to righties but with a 4.79 ERA/1.51 WHIP and 7.73 K/9 rate on the season he does cause me much intrepidation.
Mitch Keller (PIT) $6.8K DK/$7.5K FD/$33 Yahoo
Mitch Keller is very affordable today and offers upside in a matchup against the Marlins. He doesn’t have a huge upside but he his coming off two solid starts of 24 and 21 DKFP and one of those was against this same Marlins offense. He pitched seven innings and struck out five while only allowing one earned run in a quality start in that game. In four of his last six starts Keller has allowed five hits or less and has struck out 31 batters in 34 innings. Keller has always had the talent, but he is a young volatile pitcher that is still learning how to throw in the big leagues and will have his ups and downs. The Marlins lineup is a trainwreck at the moment and Keller rarely gets blown up making the righty viable in tournament formats.
DFS HITTING VALUE
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) $3.8K DK/$2.7K FD/$14 Yahoo
The Brewers will be facing mediocre Chad Kuhl who struggles against left-handed bats. Kuhl is allowing a .215 ISO/.355wOBA and 45.7% hard contact to the left side and this puts Tellez in a perfect spot for a home run call. Tellez has a .259 ISO against right-handers with a 43% flyball and hard contact rate and crushes the sinker- a pitch that Kuhl throws 44% of the time to lefties. He is struggling a bit at the plate but Chad Kuhl could be exactly what Rowdy Tellez needs to get started back up again.
Alex Kirilloff (MIN) $3.1K DK/$2.2K FD/$12 Yahoo
Akex Kirilloff is a free square on Fan Duel today and is still way too cheap on the other two sites. He is projected to be in the middle of the order today and is currently on an eight game hit streak where he is slashing .370/.452/.407 during that span. Quietly the young slugger is hitting .343 over his last 20 games with a .396wOBA and 154.0 wRC+ and gets the platoon advantage today over right-hander Rony García of the Tigers. Garcia is allowing a 54% flyball rate this season with 47% hard contact to left-handed bats which means Kirilloff could be going yard if he gets into one this afternoon.
Other Top Values:
Yoán Moncada (CWS) $3.1K DK/$2.9K FD/$12 Yahoo
Luke Raley (TAM) $2.0K DK/$2.0K FD/$7 Yahoo
Joey Votto (CIN) $3.1K DK/$2.8K FD/$10 Yahoo
Max Kepler (MIN) $2.4K FD/$13 Yahoo
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) $2.1K DK/$2.1K FD/$7 Yahoo
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Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.