MLB DFS Value Vault July 23: Max Meyer To Sink The Pirate Ship
Tonight’s main slate begins at 7:05pm EST and MLB DFS lineups aren’t always won on the backs of superstar players and high-priced options. You’ll need value options to round out your lineups, and when looking at the main slate on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo DFS, I’ve uncovered some hidden gems on the slate. Without spoiling everything in the article, I keep coming back to Tampa Bay left-handed hitters and believe it or not, the Oakland Athletics are a sneaky MLB DFS stack for your GPPs if you’re feeling dangerous. Mother nature might get involved this evening, so make sure to keep up with our MLB weather center leading up to lineup lock and first pitch. Lastly, we have a ton of MLB DFS content to help your DFS lineups, including the MLB DFS playbook, daily projections, and Vegas Odds. Without further ado, let’s take a look at my favorite value plays and MLB DFS top picks for Saturday, July 23.
MLB DFS Pitchers
Max Meyer (FanDuel - $8100 / DraftKings - $6100 / Yahoo - $30) - The Pirates are tied with the Braves for the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and overall in the month of July, versus lefties and righties, the Pirates have the fourth-highest strikeout rate. The Pirates have the fifth-lowest batting average in the month of July, and in his MLB debut, he registered five strikeouts against Philadelphia. He should fare better against a weaker Pittsburgh lineup, and the outlook on Meyer’s debut would likely be drastically different heading into this start if Richard Bleier wouldn’t have allowed all of his inherited runners to score, taking onto Meyer’s earned run tab for the afternoon.
Julio Urías (FanDuel - $9200) - Urias is priced up a bit on DraftKings and Yahoo, but he actually comes in at a decent value on FanDuel, where he isn’t one of the top two or three highest priced pitchers on the slate. He has a 3.40 ERA in eight home starts this season, and in two starts against the Giants this year, he’s allowed just two earned runs on seven hits with a 14:0 K/BB ratio. Outside of his blowup against the Cubs on July 10th, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start dating back to his first start in the month of June.
MLB DFS Hitters
Josh Donaldson (FanDuel - $2600 / Yahoo - $14) - Jordan Lyles does pitch better at home, so that’s something I’m considering here, but Donaldson is 7-for-13 in his career against Lyles, and the New York third baseman has been far better away from Yankee Stadium this compared to within it. On the year road this year, he’s hitting .281 with an .861 OPS and 143 wRC+. Lyles is better at home, but he’s allowed a ton of hard contact lately, and that can be dangerous against a potent Yankee lineup.
Brandon Lowe (FanDuel - $2900) - You beat Brady Singer with lefty bats, and Lowe has been solid against righties for the most part, posting a .406 slugging percentage and 123 wRC+ against them in 2022. As for Singer, he’s allowed a .271 average and .365 wOBA to left-handed hitters this year. What further attracts me to Lowe on FanDuel today is the generous price point given his recent production. He has multiple hits in three straight games and in his three games since returning to the lineup, he’s 8-for-14 with two doubles and four runs scored.
Sean Murphy (FanDuel - $2500 / DraftKings - $4000) - Murphy may be 0-for-4 in his career against Taylor Hearn (likely bulk guy today), but for this price point on FanDuel and DraftKings, his .798 OPS, .220 ISO, and 131 wRC+ against all lefties trumps a couple of at-bats against this particular Texas southpaw. Murphy is hitting .333 with a 158 wRC+ and .913 OPS in the month of July, whereas Taylor Hearn has allowed a 6.41 ERA over his last six appearances, and in all of 2022, he has an 8.61 ERA on the road. Lastly, righties have a .296 batting average and .858 OPS against Hearn in 2022.
Leody Taveras (FanDuel - $2900 / DraftKings - $2900) - If you get funky with an Oakland stack, Taveras is the player to bring back on the other side. He’s been better against lefties, but he’s still hitting .294 with an .814 OPS and 129 wRC+ against righties. Taveras is hitting .370 in the month of July with two home runs, four stolen bases, 12 runs scored and 14 RBI. In six starts at home this season, James Kaprielian has a 5.40 ERA alongside a 2.22 HR/9 and 1.45 WHIP.
Maikel Franco (FanDuel - $2100 / DraftKings - $2200 / Yahoo - $7) - Franco is super cheap, but he has good BvP numbers (6-for-15, HR) against Madison Bumgarner in his career. The veteran southpaw has a 4.76 ERA in the month of July and Franco is hitting .294 with a .471 slugging percentage over his last five contests. Franco’s upside is capped for sure, but if you need a punt play at a position that offers extreme salary relief across the board, you could do worse than Franco’s BvP numbers.
Nick Pratto (FanDuel - $2000 / DraftKings - $2000 / Yahoo - $12) - The Royals need to leave Pratto’s bat in the lineup, and it will likely be at first base. He’s hit safely in three of five games this season, and he has multiple hits in each game that he’s hit safely in. He doubled twice last night and homered in the game before the break. Pratto is 4-for-15 with two XBH (1 HR) against righties this year and if he cracks the lineup tonight, he offers nice upside against Luis Patiño at an incredibly affordable price point on all three sites.
Josh Lowe (DraftKings - $2700 / Yahoo - $11) - Our projections love Lowe today, and likely for good reason. In July, he’s hitting .271 with seven doubles, one home run, eight runs scored and six RBI against right-handed pitchers. As mentioned above with his teammate Brandon Lowe, lefties have given Brady Singer some fits this season, and Lowe is rocking a modest five-game hit streak where he’s hitting an even .300 with a 151 wRC+. His price point on DraftKings and Yahoo is far too low.
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Player News
A.J. Puk (elbow) will not require season-ending elbow surgery and will be re-evaluated in 2-3 weeks.
It’s arguably the best-case scenario after Puk sought multiple opinions after undergoing an MRI on his injured left elbow. The 30-year-old southpaw closer, who has been diagnosed with a flexor strain, will be shut down until at least mid-May before he’s potentially cleared to start a throwing program. There is no definitive return timetable at this juncture, but it certainly sounds like he’s going to pitch again this season. It’ll be Justin Martinez continuing to handle the closing duties in his absence.
Trea Turner went 4-for-4 with an RBI double Tuesday in the Phillies 7-6 win over the Nationals.
Turner was hoping to make it 5-for-5 in the ninth, but the game ended on a wild pitch while he was at the plate. Turner’s offensive effort barely made up for a couple of late misplays on defense. José Alvarado bailed him out after the first, and the rest of the offense picked him up in the ninth after his error preceded three unearned runs. Turner has seven hits the last two days, raising his average from .245 to .290.
Zack Wheeler pitched 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball Tuesday in a no-decision against the Nationals.
Wheeler struck out seven and walked one against his old nemesis, and he was in line to move to 15-15 against the Nationals in his career before a blown save in the ninth (he doesn’t have more than eight losses against any other team). Wheeler has allowed exactly two runs in each of his last three starts and is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA overall. It’s unclear right now whether he’ll make his next start Sunday against the Diamondbacks or get pushed back to Tuesday versus the Rays.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. will undergo further testing on his right oblique during Thursday’s off-day.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters there’s some level of concern it could be an injured list situation, but added that Chisholm told him that he feels fine. The 27-year-old fantasy stalwart was lifted from Tuesday’s game against the Orioles with right flank discomfort. He’s unlikely to play in Wednesday afternoon’s matinee in Baltimore. There should be some clarity on his status heading into Friday’s series opener against the Rays once he’s undergone an MRI to rule out any structural damage.
Going for his first career save in the ninth inning Tuesday, Orion Kerkering gave up four runs — one earned — against the Nationals.
Truly unfortunate for Kerkering, though he did wind up with the win after the Phillies came back with two in the bottom of the ninth. It took two misplays to cause Kerkering’s blown save. After a one-out single by CJ Abrams, James Wood ripped a ball to center. Johan Rojas was in fine position to catch it, but he misjudged the distance, and it went over his head for a double. After that, Kerkering got what should have been a routine groundout, but Trea Turner botched the throw for an error. Kerkering went on to strike out Keibert Ruiz for what could have been the fourth out of the inning, but he then gave up a three-run homer to Nathaniel Lowe. With José Alvarado working the eighth tonight, Kerkering was pitching in the ninth for the first time since last July 26. Even though what happened wasn’t his fault, he might not get another chance anytime soon.
MacKenzie Gore yielded three runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Tuesday.
Gore avoided falling to 2-4 after a late comeback, though the Nationals went on to lose anyway. He obviously deserves a better record for being 5-for-7 in quality starts, with both of his misses falling only a little short (3 ER in 5 IP and 4 ER in 6 IP). With six strikeouts and no walks tonight, his K/BB stands an at exceptional 59/9 through 41 innings. If he could keep that up, it’d be the third-highest K:BB in ExpoNats history behind a pair of Max Scherzer seasons.