MLB DFS Value Vault August 6: Aaron Ashby Strikes Down The Reds
While we enjoy some Saturday night baseball, lets also win some cash at the same time. It feels like a weekday with a ten (or eight depending) game MLB DFS main slate to work with, so that means lots of options at our disposal. Make sure to stay up to date with all of the latest MLB lineups, MLB weather, and MLB news throughout the day in the quest for some winning MLB DFS value picks.
DFS Value Pitchers
Dane Dunning (TEX); DraftKings - $7,100; FanDuel - $7,400; Yahoo - $28
Dunning only has one victory on the season so while that might not be the most attractive, chasing wins in DFS has become increasingly difficult. Instead, I would prefer to focus on his solid 7.85 strikeouts per nine innings as well as a 4.30 ERA that we can work with. In each of his last two starts, Dunning has held opponents to just two runs each, but more importantly are his splits. Dunning is seemingly a different pitcher at home, where he takes the mound tonight, with a 3.42 ERA and .228 opponent batting average compared to 5.08 ERA and .301 opponent batting average on the road. If the former were his seasonal stats, Dunning would likely be a little more costly tonight.
Aaron Ashby (MIL); DraftKings - $8,000; FanDuel - $8,400; Yahoo – $34
Facing Cincinnati is one of the more favorable matchups from a pitching perspective on tonight’s slate, and Ashby is the starter in position to take advantage of it. All five of the runs Ashby allowed in his last start were unearned and thanks to six strikeouts, he still finished with 18 DK points as his ERA fell to 4.13 on the season. All of Ashby’s ERA metrics (3.54 xERA) suggest he is pitching better than that though as he looks for some positive regression on his .335 BABIP and 69.8% strand rate. Between a 55.5% ground ball rate and 10.93 strikeouts per nine innings, Ashby has the ability to get out trouble and the latter is also a DFS asset.
DFS Value Hitters
Tommy La Stella, 2B/3B (SF); DraftKings - $2,600; FanDuel - $2,200; Yahoo - $10
The Giants are one of the best teams at platooning, and that also helps to keep La Stella’s DFS salary in the value territory. In each of his last two starts, La Stella picked up two hits, and it is a favorable matchup tonight for both the utility player and the Giants as a whole as they face Adam Oller. La Stella is hitting .242 in 141 plate appearances this season and if he bats atop San Francisco’s order as expected, it should be a busy game for him as a solid, low-cost, piece of any Giants’ stack.
Jaylin Davis, OF (BOS); DraftKings - $2,600; FanDuel - $2,000; Yahoo - $10
Staying at the top of the order, Davis appears to have settled into that role for Boston. The sample size is still quite small, 21 plate appearances, but Davis is hitting .333 for Boston. Boston is expected to score about five runs tonight per their implied total, and I would expect their lead-off to be involved. This is especially true with a cost that fits nicely in any stack and/or lineup.
Alek Thomas, OF (ARI); DraftKings - $3,300; FanDuel - $2,400; Yahoo - $12
Thomas has seven hits in his last 17 at bats and tonight he gets a favorable matchup at home against Antonio Senzatela. The Colorado hurler has also struggled on the road this season so that makes him ripe to be targeted. Through 74 games, the rookie is hitting a solid .258 with eight home runs, 29 RBI, 34 runs scored and four stolen bases. With a .272 batting average and seven of his home runs against right-handed pitching, Thomas has a clear platoon advantage tonight as well.
Brandon Belt, 1B (SF); DraftKings - $3,000; FanDuel - $2,500; Yahoo - $17
Let’s go back to targeting Oller as Belt has been decidedly better against right-handed pitching both so far this season (seven of his eight home runs and a .255 batting average compared to .204) and in his career. With a 7.68 ERA on the season, Oller is ripe to be targeted and the fact that he allows 2.56 home runs per nine innings as well also makes things more attractive.
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Player News
Willi Castro (oblique) went through a workout on Tuesday at Target Field.
Castro finally hit the injured list last Thursday with a right oblique strain after missing five consecutive games. All signs point to the versatile 28-year-old being ready to return at some point later this week.
The Reds are promoting pitching prospect Chase Petty for Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Cardinals.
Petty broke the news himself on his Instagram account, so it looks like he’s coming up to take the ball at some point during Wednesday’s twin bill against the Cardinals. The 22-year-old was a first-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft and holds a solid 3.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 27/9 K/BB ratio across 23 innings (five starts) this season for Triple-A Louisville. His strikeout upside gives him some long-term fantasy appeal, but we’re hesitant to recommend him as a streaming option right out of the gate.
Ben Rice went 3-for-5 with two solo homers and four runs scored as the Yankees crushed the Orioles 15-3 on Tuesday.
Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge and Rice hit consecutive homers to open the top of the first, and Cody Bellinger added the Yankees’ fourth homer off Kyle Gibson before the inning concluded. Rice then took Gibson deep again in the second. Rice seemingly was slowing down, having come into this one 3-for-25 in his previous eight games. He’ll probably be in danger of losing at-bats against lefties with any sort of extended slump, but as is, he figures to retain mixed-league value for the foreseeable future.
Carlos Rodón allowed two runs and two hits over six innings Tuesday in a victory over the Orioles.
One of the easiest wins of Rodón’s career saw him given six runs in the first and 12 runs through five. He took a no-hitter into the sixth before losing that on a Jorge Mateo double. Gunnar Henderson later homered. Rodón finished with seven strikeouts for the sixth time in seven starts this season. He’ll take a 4-3 record and a 3.43 ERA into his next outing against the Padres.
Kyle Gibson was pounded for nine runs in 3 2/3 innings by the Yankees in his 2025 debut.
Maybe throwing Gibson into the fire like this after just 12 innings in the minors was a bad idea. The 37-year-old righty gave up four homers in the first and one more in the second and became the first Orioles pitcher to give up nine runs since he did so in his previous stint with the team in 2023. It’s the first time he’s ever given up five homers. He’ll likely face the Twins next.
Pitching on two days’ rest after making his first bullpen appearance Saturday, Charlie Morton allowed one unearned run over 2 1/3 innings against the Yankees on Tuesday.
Morton threw 80 pitches as a bulk guy on Saturday, so this was a big ask from the Orioles, especially given that he’s so completely unaccustomed to relieving. Still, he gave the team some much-needed innings after Kyle Gibson was lit up for nine runs. The outing probably rules him out as a starter Friday, though with off days Thursday and Monday, the Orioles have quite a bit of flexibility for the next several days.