MLB DFS Value Vault August 20: Joc Pederson Is Too Cheap At Coors Field
Depending on where you play, you’re looking at an eight or nine game main slate that is full of intriguing options. Joe Musgrove gets to face Washington, Dustin May makes his return to the mound for the Dodgers, and Coors Field is on the slate, albeit with more value options that we are typically accustomed to seeing. Without giving too many spoilers away, Yahoo Fantasy is giving us a gift with Joc Pederson, while DraftKings has Logan Gilbert priced significantly better than FanDuel and Yahoo. Check out our daily projections and weather report for all things MLB DFS leading up to the start of tonight’s main slate. Also, check out our MLB DFS lineup generator, and projected ownership forecaster to uncover the chalk and hidden gems for tonight’s slate. Here are my favorite value options for your MLB DFS lineups for the main slate on Saturday, August 20.
Value Pitchers
Logan Gilbert, SEA ($8,000 DK) - In terms of coming to the Value Vault, Gilbert’s price on DraftKings is the only spot he applies, but the price point is just too good to pass up. Sure, Oakland hasn’t struck out a ton against righties over the last two weeks, coming in at just 20 percent, but they have just a .197 batting average and .275 wOBA to show for it, both of which rank in the bottom five in Major League Baseball. Gilbert has a 3.12 ERA on the road this season and a matchup against a weak Oakland lineup is just the turnaround that Gilbert needs following a couple of rough starts.
Chris Archer, MIN ($6,700 FD/$32 Yahoo) - On FanDuel and Yahoo, Gilbert is priced a bit too high for the sake of the Value Vault, so a cheaper arm that intrigues me tonight is Chris Archer. The Rangers have the 10th-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, not to mention the fourth-lowest ISO (.099). Archer has a 4.07 ERA at home this year with a .283 wOBA allowed, and a 3.31 FIP. He’s not a prolific strikeout arm, so his upside may be capped, but he does have a 10.29 K/9 and 10.1 percent swinging strike rate over his last five starts, and as mentioned, Texas has been prone to the strikeout of late.
Value Hitters
Joc Pederson, SFG ($13 Yahoo) - Holy moly, thank you, Yahoo, for this! Ryan Feltner has been abused by left-handed hitters this year, to the tune of a .294 average, .382 wOBA, and .900 OPS. Furthermore, he has a 6.56 ERA at home in 2022, and over his last five appearances, he has a 7.71 ERA. Pederson just homered last night, and he’s hitting .316 with a .632 SLG over his last seven contests.
Carlos Correa, MIN ($3,200 FD/$13 Yahoo) - Especially on Yahoo, it’s going to be tough to not play Corra at this price point. He’s 2-for-4 with a home run in his career against Glen Otto, and despite having a 4.54 ERA over his last seven starts, Otto has a 5.78 FIP, 1.67 HR/9, and an 8.9 percent barrel rate allowed. Correa is hitting .348 over his last seven games, and he has a .284 average and .806 OPS at home this season.
Darin Ruf, NYM ($2,400 FD/$3,300 DK) - When a lefty is on the mound, you look at Ruf, who has hit southpaws at a .252 clip this year with an .863 OPS. He’s homered once every 14.1 at-bats against lefties, and Bailey Falter has struggled in his home park this year, allowing a 5.89 ERA and 2.45 HR/9. Right-handed hitters have hit him at a .278 clip with a .617 SLG and .404 wOBA, so look to New York right-handed bats in the second game of today’s doubleheader.
Jake McCarthy, ARI ($2,400 FD/$3,100 DK) - Could Arizona be a sneaky stack tonight? Perhaps! Christian Walker leads the way, but he’s too expensive for the Value Vault, so we look to Jake McCarthy, who is hitting .320 with a .440 SLG over his last seven games. He’s hit righties at a .269 clip this season, and Dakota Hudson has a 5.10 ERA over his last six starts. Hudson has been better against left-handed hitters this season, but what he’s done for the season looks better than what he’s done of late. In July and August, lefties have hit Hudson at a .261 clip with a .360 wOBA. Overall, Hudson is struggling of late, has struggled on the road all season, and the Diamondbacks as a team have the eighth-highest wOBA and ninth-highest OPS against righties over the last two weeks.
Brandon Belt, SFG ($3,000 FD/$3,000 DK/$15 Yahoo) - Belt is mired in a slump, I get that, but he still shouldn’t be priced this low at Coors Field against a pitcher, who as you read above, struggles mightily against left-handed hitters. Belt has a .713 OPS against righties this year, and this is an upside play at a relatively cheap price given the ballpark and matchup.
Randal Grichuk, COL ($3,100 FD) - Not one, not two, but three guys from this game. I’m rather surprised with the value we are getting at the game’s best offensive park, but alas, here we are. Alex Cobb has a 5.95 ERA on the road this season, and while Grichuk is in a slump, he has Cobb’s number. In his career, Grichuk is 9-for-17 with two home runs and eight RBI, good for a .529 average and .647 wOBA. The veteran outfielder has a .324 batting average at home this season, and on FanDuel, he is too cheap at Coors Field against a pitcher that he’s crushed in his career.
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