MLB DFS Value Vault August 13: Finding Savings With Lucas Giolito And His K-Rate

Tonight, provides us with an absolutely loaded 12 game MLB DFS main slate that also includes some ace pitchers taking the mound. Two of those pitchers, Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola, are facing each other and you certainly will not be lacking for options tonight. We do have to deal with Coors Field on tonight’s slate as well, but 12 games to work with, there should be a fair amount of differentiation in lineups. Do not forget to utilize all of our tools and to stay up to date on the latest MLB news, MLB Weather, and MLB Lineups. Now, lets take a look at some MLB DFS value picks for tonight.
DFS Value Pitchers
Matt Manning (DET); DraftKings - $6,000; FanDuel - $6,800; Yahoo - $33
The big thing here for Manning, well aside from his cost, is the upside we get in the strikeout department. After striking out just one batter in five innings in his first start back with Detroit, Manning struck out seven in his last start against Tampa while keeping the Rays off the scoreboard and scattering four hits and three walks. Manning has historically struck out more than a batter per inning in the minor leagues, and while he has yet to consistently put anything together at the major league level, the talent is there and I feel comfortable targeting him against the White Sox.
Lucas Giolito (CWS): DraftKings - $7,500; FanDuel - $8,500; Yahoo - $41
You likely are not going to roll with both value pitchers in the same lineup, but it might not be the worst strategy if you are fading the aces as it gives a better chance at leaving with one victory. It truly has been a disappointing season for Giolito with a 4.91 ERA but if we go down to his 4.38 xERA and then keep on going to his 3.75 xFIP, it is easier to feel at least a little better about the right-hander. The fact that Giolito is facing the Tigers tonight does allow those good feelings to continue. It also helps that Giolito is striking out 10.16 batters per nine innings so we pick up the upside there. In his last two starts, the right-hander has allowed three earned runs in 10 innings while picking up 20.5 and 17.9 DK points, respectively. At this price, I would be perfectly fine with a repeat performance.
DFS Value Hitters
Yulieski Gurriel, 1B (HOU); DraftKings - $3,300; FanDuel - $2,400; Yahoo - $14
Gurriel is position to feast tonight, as is the entire Houston lineup against left-hander Zach Logue as their implied run total has them pushing six. Despite a down season, Gurriel is notably better against southpaws (.265 compared to .229) and the move to the second spot in the batting order has also benefited him; .278 with seven runs scored and four RBI in 13 games. If you are looking to stack Houston batters, Gurriel is a cost-effective piece.
Brandon Crawford, SS (SF); DraftKings - $2,000; FanDuel - $2,300; Yahoo - $9
Crawford is essentially free tonight and the fact that he is facing Tyler Beede makes it that much more attractive. With a .219 batting average through 77 games, it has not been the best of seasons for the shortstop, but he does have 34 RBI after driving in 90 runs last year, so I still have some level of confidence in his abilities as a run producer. Through five games in August, Crawford is hitting .278 so perhaps this is the start of him beginning to turn a slight corner?
JJ Bleday, OF (MIA); DraftKings - $2,000; FanDuel - $2,300
A clean-up hitter at near minimum or minimum price against a starter (Ian Anderson) who has struggled this season? Sign me up. In 19 games with the Marlins since his promotion, Bleday is still looking to breakout as he is batting .227 with two home runs and seven runs scored, but it will not take much to turn that around. Prior to his promotion, Bleday showed some power with 20 home runs in Triple-A this year, and that is all we are looking for here.
Alex Verdugo, OF (BOS); DraftKings - $3,000; FanDuel - $3,000; Yahoo - $12
Verdugo has hits in six of his last seven games, and we do not know what version of Frankie Montas we will see tonight, so that puts Boston’s cleanup hitter on our radar. In 11 games so far this month, Verdugo is hitting .316, and while there is not much here other than a strong batting average that jumps off the page, the outfielder is in a solid place in Boston’s lineup and is priced fairly.
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Player News
Triston Casas, who was dropped to fourth to sixth in the Boston lineup Sunday, is down to seventh for Tuesday’s game.
Kristian Campbell is batting sixth ahead of him tonight. Casas is batting just .175/.242/.281 in 62 plate appearances, and the Red Sox have been benching him against lefties despite saying he wouldn’t be a platoon player this year. One imagines he’ll get it turned around soon; his bat speed hasn’t gone anywhere and he’s not striking out much more than usual.
José Caballero is on the bench for the Rays for a second straight game Tuesday.
Caballero, hitting .333/.455/.557 in 33 plate appearances, started four out of five games going into Monday, but then the Rays scored 16 runs without him last night and decided that, yeah, it might be a good idea to trot out that same lineup again. The one exception tonight is that Ben Rortvedt is giving Danny Jansen a day off behind the plate.
Victor Scott II is out of the Cardinals lineup in favor of Michael Siani on Tuesday.
Scott started against a lefty last night but isn’t playing against a righty tonight. Of course, that’s part of the problem when you’re top two options at a position are both left-handers. Scott has cooled recently, but he’s still hitting a solid .259/.328/.389 through 62 plate appearances.
Brandon Marsh is back in center field and batting ninth Tuesday against the Giants.
Phillies manager Rob Thomson said yesterday that he was planning to give Marsh three straight days off, but that’s obviously changed. Johan Rojas is back on the bench tonight after starting over Marsh last night.
Ryan Weathers, on the IL with a strained left forearm, is throwing a bullpen session on the field Tuesday.
It seems ambition, but Weathers is hoping to rejoin the Marlins rotation in the first week of May. He’s due to throw a couple of more bullpens before facing hitters and going on a rehab assignment.
George Springer, who injured his left wrist Sunday, is again out of the Jays lineup on Tuesday.
The Jays are going with an Alen Roden-Myles Straw-Addison Barger outfield tonight against the Braves. Anthony Santander is DHing.