Zack Wheeler Underdog MLB Picks Today, 4/18: Baseball Projections + More
It’s Friday at Fantasy Alarm and we have your Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks for April 18th.
With the baseball season in full swing, we’re highlighting two players poised to make an impact in today’s matchups featuring Philadelphia Phillies “ace” Zack Wheeler taking on the Miami Marlins and the Toronto Blue Jays righty Bowden Francis who may have his hands full with a surging Seattle Mariners offense.
Here’s why these two could be difference-makers for your fantasy roster tonight!
MLB Underdog Picks: Friday, 4/18 - MLB Projections
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Zack Wheeler Underdog MLB Pick: Lower Than 1.5 Earned Runs
It has been a rough last two starts for Wheeler who has allowed nine earned runs over his last 11.1 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Cardinals and Diamondbacks this season rank among the top offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching so to see Wheeler struggle, while surprising, can at least be understood given the opponent.
Today he takes the mound against a Miami Marlins offense however that is not among the top offenses in baseball, in fact, they rank towards the bottom of the league in team average, ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching with a near 27% strikeout rate.
This is the perfect time to jump on the lower than 1.5 earned run mark for Wheeler as we project a dominant performance.
Bowden Francis Underdog MLB Pick: Higher Than 2.5 Earned Runs
We really want to like Bowden Francis as a prospect but the numbers this season through his first few starts have not been great with the righty owning a xERA of 6.01 and FIP of 5.70 suggesting some luck in play with his 3.71 ERA.
Francis has a 21% HR/FB rate and his 7.9 K/9 along with a 3.7 BB/9 is not a good combo here today as he faces a Mariners offense that is really starting to hit, especially catcher Cal Raleigh who has been a home run machine.
I think the Mariners get to Francis early here today as we see him finish with more than 2.5 earned runs allowed.
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Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.