Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks September 28: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Against Gerrit Cole in Toronto
We have a nice slate of major league baseball tonight and that means Underdog Fantasy props! We are now deep into September and have an entire season of MLB data to pore through so let’s check out the MLB props board at Underdog Fantasy for Wednesday night. Tonight, we are looking at two sluggers- a red-hot Anthony Santander, who has six home runs since Saturday, against a struggling pitcher in Fenway and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. against an ace that he has had success against over his career.
Check our MLB Weather center to make sure that all games will be dry and that there are no surprising pop-up storms during roster lock. To get all the confirmed starting lineups make sure to go to the MLB Lineups page. We also have an MLB DFS Lineup Generator and MLB Player Projections to make all of your fantasy baseball lineups plus an MLB Tools page that features batter vs. pitcher and advanced metrics. Now let’s take a look at my three favorite props on Underdog Fantasy for Wednesday’s baseball action.
Underdog Fantasy MLB Player Pick'Ems September 28
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 6.5 Fantasy Points
Call me crazy but I will be taking the over on Vlad Guerrero Jr tonight in his matchup with Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. The Jays slugger obviously sees Cole well as he is 9-for-24 (.375) lifetime with two bombs off the right-hander. Vlad has always been more of reverse splits hitter over his career and this season has been no different as he is slashing .283/.344/.496 (.840 OPS) against right-handers compared to .245/.320/.391 (.711 OPS) against southpaws. Over the last three seasons combined he has a .238 ISO/.385wOBA on the split with a 42.5% hard contact rate and he crushes Cole’s two main pitches to right-handers (fastball/slider which he throws over 80% of the time). Gerrit Cole certainly is not immune to the big blast, and we could very well see one tonight in a playoff atmosphere in hitter-friendly Rogers Center.
Anthony Santander OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Since Saturday, Anthony Santander is hitting .400/.400/1.350 with a double, nine RBIs, and six homers -- including two last night in Boston. Tonight, he faces Rich Hill, a match made in heaven as Santander seems to have a swing built for Fenway Park with six bombs in 39 at-bats this season. On the other hand, the saying “there is no place like home” sure does not fit the Red Sox lefty Hill who is 2-4 with a 5.87 ERA/1.52 WHIP at Fenway compared to 5-3 with a 3.80 ERA1.22 WHIP on the road. Santander is a switch-hitter that rakes left-handed pitching with a .263 ISO/.390wOBA plus a .303/.372/.566 slash with .938 OPS. He also has had success with the knuckle-curve (.369wOBA) which is one of Hill’s two main pitches to right-handed bats. Take the over here on the red-hot Anthony Santander.
Hunter Dozier OVER 0.5 Hits
Hunter Dozier is on a hot streak as the season winds down. Over his last seven games, he has gone 9-for-26 (.346) with two homers, five RBI, and a pair of doubles in that span. Dozier faces Matt Manning tonight who has a 4.66 xFIP and a sub 20% strikeout rate on the season. Over his last five starts, Manning has a low 6.1 K/9 and a 5.04 ERA/4.71 FIP which will feed right into Dozier who has six hits in his last three games. With the way, Dozier has been hitting and Manning pitching there is a pretty good chance that he gets at least another single tonight.
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.