Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks July 4: Kodai Senga & Lucas Giolito Strikeout Props for Fourth of July
Happy Fourth of July! As you grill out during the day and enjoy some fireworks tonight, let's find MLB player props and MLB Underdog picks to cash in on for Tuesday's Major League Baseball schedule. Is there a better way to celebrate Independence Day than tracking some MLB betting picks throughout the day?! Our top MLB picks on Underdog Fantasy feature New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga and Chicago White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito. Check out these free MLB player props and MLB daily picks on Underdog Fantasy for “Pick'Em” contests tonight. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props and MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Tuesday, July 4th.
MLB Underdog Fantasy Top Picks July 4
Kodai Senga, New York Mets – UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts
If you took a look at Kodai Senga’s recent game logs, you’d think we’d go over on this strikeout prop today. Yes, the New York Mets right-hander has 6+ strikeouts in four straight starts and eight of the last nine outings. Heck, he’s even gone over 5.5 K’s in 12 of 15 starts this season with an impressive 28.5% strikeout rate. Even so, we’re going under because of the tough matchup on the road. The Arizona Diamondbacks have one of the lowest K rates vs right-handed pitching this season at 19.6% (3rd-lowest in MLB). The D-backs also boast a strong .336 wOBA and 9.0% walk rate vs righties (both top 10 marks). Over the past month, Arizona’s offense has a .351 wOBA, 19.5% K rate, and 9.3% walk rate against right-handers. The Diamondbacks also boast one of the best strikeout rates at home at 20.1% (fourth-lowest). Meanwhile, Senga has had some issues on the road this year with a 4.58 ERA and .247 BAA on the road compared to a 2.64 ERA and .175 BAA at home. Although his game log trends tell a different story, Senga’s strikeouts should be limited today.
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox – OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Let’s roll with a strikeout prop over for a Fourth of July nightcap while you enjoy those fireworks. Lucas Giolito boasts strong home numbers this season with a 2.36 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .199 BAA at home compared to a 4.71 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .264 BAA on the road. He’s also gone over 5.5 strikeouts in six of eight home starts so far while averaging 6.6 K’s per home outing. Plus, the Chicago White Sox right-hander struck out at least seven batters in four of five June starts while putting up a 2.32 ERA in the month. Giolito now faces a Toronto Blue Jays offense that has a high 27.8% strikeout rate over the past two weeks vs righties. Over the past week, the Jays’ K rate vs right-handers is up to 29.1% as well. This is a good spot for Giolito to rack up the strikeouts at home against an offense that’s been prone to plenty of K’s lately.
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Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.