Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks - Best Picks & Plays for July 6: Freddie Freeman Continues Hot Streak
We now have over three full months of Major League Baseball data to dig through and that just means more confidence as we look over the MLB player props board at Underdog Fantasy. Wednesday, July 6th brings us a split MLB slate with some good pitching options along with strong offensive props. Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola has a strikeout prop against the Washington Nationals that is way too low. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman and Corey Seager are both in smash spots against below-average pitchers. All players should also be considered MLB DFS top plays tonight. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers, led by Freeman and Seager, could be popular MLB DFS stacks as well for daily fantasy baseball lineups. Before locking in MLB player props or MLB daily fantasy lineups, check out the latest MLB weather report with plenty of rain concerns for tonight's games. To get all the confirmed starting lineups make sure to go to the MLB Lineups page as well. Also, use the MLB daily projections and keep track of the latest fantasy baseball news before tonight's games. Now let’s take a look at my favorite MLB player props on Underdog Fantasy for Wednesday night’s baseball action.
MLB Player Props Underdog Fantasy July 6
Freddie Freeman – OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Freeman comes into tonight’s game against the Rockies slashing .302/.382/.489 with an OPS of .871. He is on fire and has posted a 1.108 OPS with 10 extra-base hits and 16 RBI over his last 16 games. The Dodgers' first baseman is a righty masher and over the last two seasons has a .208 ISO/.394 wOBA with a 48.1% hard contact rate vs. righties. At home this year, he's carrying a .337 average with a .42 4wOBA and 170 wRC+ in the split. Freeman is facing José Ureña, who has just not been a good pitcher. Urena has a 7.05 xFIP, is not missing batters (8.3% strikeout rate), and is issuing plenty of walks (13.9% BB rate) to go along with a .308 average to lefty hitters.
Aaron Nola – OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
This prop is just too low and I would go up to 7.5 strikeouts for the Phillies ace. Nola is striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. which is actually down from 11.1 in 2021 – so positive regression is expected. He has struck out 18 batters over his last two starts combined. The right-hander tied for fourth in the MLB with 117 strikeouts on the season and has 157 career K's against the Nationals. Nola also struck out eight Washington batters in a win just a couple of weeks ago when he went eight innings and allowed only four hits, one walk, and zero earned runs.
Corey Seager – OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Seager is in a smash spot tonight facing right-handed Spenser Watkins. First, the Rangers' shortstop is a righty-killer with a .230 ISO,.372 wOBA, and 20 of his 32 home runs coming against PHP over the last two seasons vs. righties. Seager is also swinging a hot bat with a .290 average, .387 OBP, and .851 OPS over his last seven games. Watkins, Baltimore's starter tonight, does not exactly instill fear in opposing hitters as he has a 6.59 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in nearly 100 career innings. He also has a below-average xFIP (6.39) and strikeout rate (12.6%) – and it even gets worse against left-handed bats with a 9.9% K rate and 36% hard contact allowed.
Other Favorite MLB Props:
- Luis Severino OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
- David Peterson OVER 5.0 Strikeouts
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Rhys Hoskins went 4-for-4 with a homer, a double, five RBI and a walk in powering the Brewers past the Guardians 9-5 on Wednesday.
Hoskins was batting .182 and slugging .205 on this day a month ago. He’s since hit .349 with five homers, six doubles, 20 RBI and 13 walks in 26 games. He’s even stolen two bases. It looked like Hoskins might have been done as a mixed-league first baseman after his mediocre 2024, but he’s definitely worth playing now.
Logan Henderson struck out seven while allowing two runs over five innings Wednesday against the Guardians.
Henderson has a 2.45 ERA and 16 strikeouts between his two spot starts for the Brewers. There’s a good chance he’ll be sent back down now, but he seems like a better bet than Quinn Priester at the end of the rotation. That said, Priester did help his cause by allowing one run in five innings against the same lineup last night.
Gavin Williams yielded two runs in five innings Wednesday in a no-decision against the Brewers.
Williams struck out six. He gave up a homer to Sal Frelick on a ball that would have left only eight of the 30 ballparks, according to Statcast. Williams, who is 3-2 with a 4.29 ERA for the season, will pitch in Minnesota next time out.
William Contreras went 3-for-4 with a double, a walk and four runs scored versus the Guardians on Wednesday.
It’s the first time in his career that he’s scored four runs. Contreras’s exit velocity numbers have been off as he plays through a fractured finger, but he had three hard-hit balls today and all of them found grass. He came into the day with a .128/.209/.205 line this month.
Jhonkensy Noel struck out all three times he was up before being replaced by a pinch-hitter Wednesday against the Brewers.
Noel got some extra playing time a couple of weeks ago, but he didn’t do much with it, and the start today was only his second in 10 games. Just 23 years old, he’d seem in line to benefit from extra at-bats in Triple-A, and there’s a good chance that he’ll be sent down when Lane Thomas is activated.
Harrison Bader made an early exit from the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Orioles.
Bader was 1-for-2 with an RBI before being replaced by DaShawn Keirsey Jr. in center field after grounding out in the third inning. He managed to remain in the opening contest of the twin bill after a collision with the outfield wall in foul territory, but it’s possible his early exit is related to that incident. There should be an update on his status shortly.