Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks - Best Picks & Plays for August 31: Paul Goldschmidt Strengthens NL MVP Case
With some bad pitchers on the mound in Major League Baseball today, I’m loving quite a few MLB player props that involve some of the game’s best hitters. NL MVP Contenders Paul Goldschmidt and Austin Riley top my list today, and while those two are my favorite MLB player props, Underdog Fantasy has ample props that you can add in to increase your multiplier today. Christian Walker finds himself in a good spot, and taking the under on some props involving Triston McKenzie and Mike Minor seem to be in play today. I love using the data on our lineups page, along with our daily projections and MLB vegas odds to construct my slips for today’s action. Here are my favorite MLB player props and plays of the day over on Underdog Fantasy for Wednesday, August 31.
Underdog Fantasy MLB Player Props August 31
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases
It feels like cheating picking Goldschmidt all the time, but the numbers don’t lie! He’s 8-for-14 with three home runs in his career against Mike Minor, and he’s hitting southpaws at a .414 clip with a 1.333 OPS and .414 ISO this season. Minor has allowed a 6.37 ERA, .554 SLG, and 2.41 HR/9 at home this season, and he has a 5.97 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over his last seven starts. On the best side of his splits, there’s no reason not to target Goldschmidt today.
Austin Riley OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Colorado’s Ryan Feltner has allowed a 6.19 ERA, .369 wOBA, and .308 batting average on the road this season, and over his last five starts, he’s served up a 6.29 ERA and a 1.85 HR/9. How do you get to Feltner? Right-handed hitters. Righties are hitting Feltner at a .291 clip with a .367 wOBA and an .859 OPS. Riley’s numbers look better against lefties, but he’s still posted an .817 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, alongside a .353 wOBA and .225 ISO. Riley has a .959 OPS at home this season, and he’s hitting .381 with a .476 SLG, and .429 wOBA over his last six games.
Other MLB Player Prop Leans:
- Mike Minor UNDER 17.5 Pitching Outs (STL has .866 OPS vs. LHP over last 14 days, and Minor has completed 6 IP in just one of his last eight starts)
- Christian Walker OVER 1.5 Total Bases (1.123 OPS over L15, .928 OPS vs LHP in 2022)
- Triston McKenzie UNDER 94.5 Pitch Count (Under in seven of last 10 starts)
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Elias Díaz went 2-for-4 with a homer in the Padres’ 5-3 takedown of the Giants on Wednesday.
Díaz made a second straight start today for the first time since Apr. 5-7. While probably not truly a quality starting catcher, Diaz has to be a better option than Martín Maldonado, who continues to handle Dylan Cease and Randy Vásquez when they pitch. Díaz is catching Michael King and Nick Pivetta, both of whom are off to outstanding starts. Díaz also has a .652 to .506 OPS advantage on Maldonado.
Michael King pitched 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball and struck out six in Wednesday’s win over the Giants.
Par for the course for King so far this year. The one oddity for him in starting off 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA is that he’s never pitched six, seven or eight innings; his lone “quality start” was his complete-game shutout of the Rockies on Apr. 13. King’s next start will be his first against the Yankees since his inclusion in the Juan Soto deal.
Robert Suarez turned in a hitless ninth for his 12th save Wednesday against the Giants.
Just like last night, the Padres ran through Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam and Suarez to hold on to a lead today. In the team’s last three games, those four have all made three appearances and no other reliever has faced a single batter, a strategy made easier by the off-day Monday and another one tomorrow. Suarez is now 12-for-12 in save chances.
Landen Roupp yielded four runs in 4 1/3 innings Wednesday in a loss to the Padres.
Roupp would certainly seem to have the stuff to be a quality starter, but this is the third time this season that he’s failed to complete five innings, and he currently has a 5.10 ERA. It’s the .383 BABIP that’s killing him, but there’s nothing much backing it up; his exit velocity numbers are all considerably better than average. There’s definitely a chance he’ll prove useful in mixed leagues as the goes on. He’s due to face the Cubs next time out.
Wilmer Flores went 0-for-4 and struck out twice against the Padres on Wednesday.
The Flores renaissance seems to have come to a conclusion. He’s 0-for-15 in his last four games, and he’s hitting .190 with one homer in his last 17 games. In spite of that, though, he’s still tied for third in the majors with his 28 RBI. We wouldn’t expect him to offer mixed-league value the rest of the way.
Tyler Glasnow (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for 10-14 days before being re-evaluated.
Glasnow hit the injured list earlier this week with right shoulder inflammation. The Dodgers are going to give him at least a couple weeks to rest before he’s potentially cleared to resume a throwing program. It seems highly unlikely he’ll make it back to Los Angeles’ rotation until sometime in June since he’ll need at least a couple minor league rehab starts to build up his stamina and pitch count again. He remains without an official return timetable for the moment.