Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks - Best Picks & Plays for August 18: Manny Machado & Aaron Judge Have Great Matchups
There are five games in MLB tonight that start at 7 p.m. ET or later. One of the props that stand out is a strikeout prop for Padres pitcher Yu Darvish. Two other props are on Manny Machado and Aaron Judge. Always keep an eye on our weather center to see how things look closer to first pitch. If you want to add more MLB player props to increase your multiplier, check out our MLB daily projections and MLB Vegas odds to find the lines to exploit. Check out confirmed MLB lineups before you lock in any daily fantasy baseball lineups or MLB betting picks. Here are my MLB best bets and favorite MLB player props over at Underdog Fantasy for Thursday, August 18th.
MLB Player Props Underdog Fantasy August 18
Yu Darvish over 6.5 strikeouts
Darvish faced the Nationals in his last start on Saturday and struck out nine over six innings. Darvish has at least seven strikeouts in five of his last six games and seven of the last nine games. The Padres right-hander has a 25-percent strikeout rate and tends to go deep into games. He has pitched at least six innings in 15 consecutive starts. The Nationals haven't struck out a lot this season, but the strikeouts have increased over the last two weeks since Juan Soto and Josh Bell were traded.
Manny Machado over 1.5 total bases
Machado has been filling up the box score lately and is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He has a nine-game hitting streak and has multiple hits in eight straight games. The Padres third baseman is batting .368 with a .1076 OPS in August. Machado gets a great matchup against Aníbal Sánchez and is 8-for-17 against him in his career. Right-handers have a .696 slugging percentage, .486 wOBA, and a 4.26 HR/9 against Sanchez this season.
Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases
Aaron Judge gets a good matchup against a struggling José Berríos, who is having the worst season of his career. Berrios has a 5.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and a 20.3 percent strikeout rate after being at least 25 percent in each of the last two seasons. Over his last two starts against the Guardians and Twins, he has allowed 13 earned runs, four home runs, and 14 hits over 7.2 innings. Judge is 3-for-8 against Berrios this season, including a home run. Berrios has allowed right-handers a .444 slugging percentage against him this season. Judge is slugging .674 with a 1.082 OPS against right-handers this season. Judge has cooled off lately, but he doubled last night.
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.