Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks - Best Picks & Plays for August 17: Francisco Lindor Leads New York Mets
After being away at the King’s Classic and Fantasy Football Expo, it feels good to be back examining the board of MLB player props over at Underdog Fantasy today. I included three MLB daily picks in this article, but the first two stand out above the other. First, we look to take advantage of a low line for Francisco Lindor. The New York Mets shortstop has good BvP numbers against Jake Odorizzi, not to mention a .333 batting average over his last 15 contests, and he could be an MLB DFS top play as well. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodón has a lengthy leash and the San Francisco Giants pitcher should pitch well against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. There’s even a bonus lean at the bottom involving a St. Louis slugger. Lindor and the Mets have some MLB weather report concerns tonight, so keep an eye on our weather center to see how things look closer to first pitch. If you want to add more MLB player props to increase your multiplier, check out our MLB daily projections and MLB Vegas odds to find the lines that you can exploit. Plus, check out confirmed MLB lineups before you lock in any daily fantasy baseball lineups or MLB betting picks. Now, here are my MLB best bets and favorite MLB player props over at Underdog Fantasy for Wednesday, August 17.
MLB Player Props Underdog Fantasy August 17
Francisco Lindor OVER 5.5 Fantasy Points
This line is just too low for a guy like Lindor, who can rack up fantasy points in a myriad of ways. First and foremost, he’s 11-for-28 with two home runs in his career against Atlanta Braves starter Jake Odorizzi – good for a .393 average and .467 wOBA. Lindor has an .829 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and he’s hitting a cool .333 with a .426 OBP and .471 slugging percentage over his last 15 games. Odorizz, meanwhile, has a 4.15 ERA (4.96 FIP, 5.50 xFIP) through two starts with his new team. Once again, 5.5 fantasy points is too low for Lindor in this matchup. Keep an eye on the weather for this contest, though.
Carlos Rodón OVER 98.5 Pitches
I typically don’t play pitch count props all that much, but I have to admit, this one definitely caught my eye. In two earlier matchups against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Rodon has logged 101 and 99 pitches. Sticking on the Arizona train, the Diamondbacks have the 10th-highest strikeout rate versus lefties over the last 30 days, as well as the 13th-highest walk rate. Furthermore, the D-backs have the ninth-highest pitches-per-plate appearances mark on the season at 3.92. The veteran southpaw has surpassed this mark in five of his last eight games, and while the line is at 98.5, he’s logged at least 98 pitches in seven of his last eight starts. Give me the over here.
Other MLB Player Prop Leans:
- Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases (.405 with 4 HRs vs. Germán Márquez)
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J.P. Crawford singled in the winning run in the bottom of the 11th as the Mariners edged the Yankees 2-1 on Tuesday.
Crawford was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts before his liner to left barely dropped into fair territory and plated the automatic runner in the 11th. It gave him his first RBI in nine games. He’s currently hitting .271/.378/.364 for the season.
Bryan Woo blanked the Yankees for 6 1/3 innings in a no-decision Tuesday.
Woo has come up big for the Mariners in pitching at least six innings every time out this season and going 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA. The 1-0 lead he left with tonight didn’t hold up, but the Mariners did prevail in extra innings to move to 6-2 in Woo’s starts. He’ll face the White Sox next time out.
Andrés Muñoz was charged with a blown save after giving up an unearned run in the ninth Tuesday against the Yankees.
Muñoz created his own trouble by hitting Paul Goldschmidt to start the ninth, but that was the only mistake he made as a pair of grounders went on to score pinch-runner Pablo Reyes. Muñoz still hasn’t given up an earned run this season.
Max Fried allowed one run over five innings before being lifted against the Mariners on Tuesday.
Fried needed 91 pitches to get his 15 outs, so he didn’t come back out for the sixth. Still, he was effective in allowing four hits and striking out five. He’ll take a 1.11 ERA into his next start, which will likely come Sunday against the Mets.
Devin Williams pitched a perfect 10th in a tie game Tuesday against the Mariners.
Williams followed Luke Weaver, who worked flawless eighth and ninth innings before the game went to extras. It’s Williams’ third straight scoreless appearance and sixth in seven games since he was pulled from the closer’s role. Weaver hasn’t had any issues, either, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Williams get a save chance sometime soon.
Robbie Ray allowed three runs over six innings and struck out nine in the Giants’ 10-6 win over the Diamondbacks on Tuesday.
Ray joined Max Fried as the only pitchers off to 6-0 starts thus far this season, and the Giants have gone 9-0 in his outings. His peripherals are significantly worse than his 3.04 ERA, but he’s definitely performed better in his last four starts than he did in his first five, when he seemed more lucky than good. He’ll pitch at home against the Royals next time out.