Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks April 3: Hunter Brown & Aaron Judge Are Top Plays Tonight
Welcome to another night of MLB action with a full slate of games on tap for Monday evening. It's time to dive into the top MLB player props and picks on Underdog Fantasy for tonight's slate. With a few games in the books, we have some MLB stats and trends to use when making our MLB best bets. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups ahead of tonight's game. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props and MLB DFS lineups. Now, let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Monday, April 3rd.
MLB Underdog Top Picks & Plays April 3
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros – OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Hunter Brown is a potential AL Rookie of the Year this season and we'll get to see his talent on full display tonight. The top prospect made a few appearances for Houston at the end of last season, but he begins this year in the Astros' starting rotation. Brown compiled 22 strikeouts over 20.1 big-league innings in 2022 with a 27.5% K rate. He also had a 31.5% strikeout rate with 11.4 Ks per nine last season in Triple-A. Tonight, Brown will face a woeful Detroit Tigers lineup that struck out 30 times in the three-game sweep by the Rays – including 14 Ks on Sunday. The Tigers' offense has a 29.7% strikeout rate (third-worst in MLB), a 5.9% walk rate (fifth-worst), and just a .147 team batting average (second-worst) so far. Yes, this came against a strong Tampa pitching staff, but the Detroit lineup is expected to be one of the worst in baseball. Expect Brown to have success in this matchup. For what it's worth, he notched six strikeouts vs Detroit last year in one of his two starts.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees – OVER 1.5 Total Bases
In case you haven't noticed, Aaron Judge is starting off the 2023 season scorching hot. The reigning AL MVP already has two home runs and is hitting .462 (4-for-9) over the first three games. Yes, it's a small sample size, but it's clear that Judge is comfortable at the plate right now and taking advantage of the Yankees starting the season at home. Judge had a .333 BA in Spring Training overall with over 1.5 total bases in six of nine games before the regular season began. He's carried it right over with multiple total bases in all three games thus far. Now Judge gets to face Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker, whom he's had success against over his career. Judge is hitting .364 (4-for-11) with four home runs off Walker. We may see the Yankees' slugger go deep again tonight with the BvP splits in his favor combined with a hot start to the season.
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.