Spencer Arrighetti Underdog MLB Picks Today, 3/29: Baseball Projections + More
It’s the first Saturday of the 2025 MLB season so let’s get our Underdog accounts loaded up and start winning some money playing MLB DFS Pick ‘Em contests.
The first Saturday means we also have our first full slate of games from which to choose. Fifteen games scattered throughout the day and best of all, it’s Day 3 of the season which means we’re starting to se some softer pitching match-ups. We’ll still be looking at the pitchers to target against teams like the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins, but on days like this, we’re likely to focus more on the offensive prowess of most teams.
Underdog Fantasy Picks for Saturday, March 29: MLB DFS Projections
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Spencer Arrighetti MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower than 6.5 Strikeouts
Overall, I’m a big fan of Arrighetti and even made the bold prediction that he would reach the 200-strikeout plateau this season. Unfortunately, it doesn’t start off strong for him this season facing a Mets team that isn’t up there hacking away. The Juan Soto effect on surrounding hitters and their plate discipline is real. Arrighetti will get his, but with the command issues from spring that he’s still working out, today won’t be his day.
- Pick: Lower than 6.5 Strikeouts
Vladimir Guerrero MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
The Blue Jays bats woke up yesterday against the Orioles and they face an all-too-familiar foe in Dean Kremer. Always tough to rely on Batter vs Pitcher data, but you cannot ignore a .357 average (10-for-28) with five home runs. Guerrero’s multi-hit game last night is only going to open the floodgates for him. We might as well take full advantage.
- Pick: Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Jesus Luzardo MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 4.5 Strikeouts
Not only do the Nationals have the third-highest strikeout rate to open the season (35.1-percent), they look even worse against southpaws. We watched Luzardo struggle through some injuries last season, but the two years prior he posted a 10+ K/9 and this spring, that number shot up even more. The potential command concerns are still there at times and he did allow a few too many dingers over the spring, but the Nationals are an aggressive team at the plate and if Luzardo can go four innings, he’ll top this number.
- Pick: Higher Than 4.5 Strikeouts
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Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.