Target Watch: Looking for Reliability

Apologies for the delay with this week’s Target Watch, but technical difficulties made it impossible for it to be delivered on-time. I could sit here and bash the incompetence of Comcast, but that’s not going to help you make the right decision as to which wide receivers and tight ends you should be using for your Week 15 playoff matchup. Those of you who have dealt with them know exactly what I’m talking about and if you haven’t had the displeasure of doing business with them, consider yourself lucky. So for the sake of time and the need for decisions to be made post-haste, let’s just get right to the target talk.

Week 14 Target Leaders

Jarvis Landry, WR MIA – We’ll throw a shout-out Landry’s way for leading the league in targets this week. The Fins have shown that they’re willing to air it out against bad pass defenses and Landry’s target bonanza should continue this week against the Chargers. San Diego does fairly well against receivers lining up in the slot, but Miami should line him up on the outside more in this one with the Chargers ranking 23^rd in the league against the opposition’s No. 1 wideout. If he can see more red zone work, he’d be an even tastier play.

Benjamin Watson, TE NO – He’s only seen the end zone once in the last five games, but he’s now seen a total of 28 targets over the last three. Monday night should be a shootout against the Lions and with Detroit ranking 30^th in the league against the tight end, it looks like the targets should continue to stay high.

Jeremy Butler, WR BAL – Who? Exactly. While he’s probably the best choice for the Ravens as their WR2, he’s really not all that talented a receiver. The targets were nice to see in Week 14, but it seems unlikely that the trend will continue. With Matt Schaub questionable and Jimmy “Pickles” Clausen as the second option under center, Butler is not going to be a strong play moving forward.

Vernon Davis, TE DEN – Maybe it was the knee injury to Owen Daniels that led to a season-high nine targets for Davis, but look for the trend to continue. Brock Osweiler will continue to utilize the tight end more, it seems, and with Daniels questionable for this week, Davis should take the lead at the position once again. The Steelers do rank eighth in the league against the tight end, but they’re also allowing an average of 60 yards per game to the position.

Quinton Patton, WR SF – Perhaps it was just a matchup decision for the Niners, but it hardly seems like Patton will be a consistent target threat for the Niners. Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith lead the way for this weak aerial attack and while Patton does have solid talent and upside, his time is not now.  A tough matchup against the Bengals should solidify that notion.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

Travis Benjamin, WR CLE – His target rate took a bit of a hit in Week 13 due to a shoulder injury and it stayed the same last week as Brian Hartline proved extremely reliable while he was limited. But with Hartline done for the season with a broken collarbone, you can expect Benjamin’s target rate to shoot back up, even with a tough matchup against the Seahawks. He and tight end Gary Barnidge are all Johnny Football has really, so while the expectations are low this week, he should stil see a strong increase in targets and be an even better play in Week 16 against the Chiefs.

Stefon Diggs, WR MIN – While Diggs still remains the most-targeted receiver on the Vikings, his rate continues to decline. He’s got four catches on 13 targets over the last two games and Teddy Bridgewater is really starting to look at some alternatives. Kyle Rudolph seems to be steadily increasing, Rhett Ellison is getting a few extra looks and even Mike Wallace was stealing a few targets as well. If Diggs cannot show some reliability with his hands, that declining 18.7-percent rate could drop even further.

Red Zone Target Leaders

Robert Woods, BUF – While Sammy Watkins continues to get most of the attention, Woods has been a bit of a silent-killer with his 18.8-percent target rate inside the red zone. He’s only found the end zone three times this season, but this could actually be a nice week for him if his hip doesn’t keep him limited. The Redskins will focus on Watkins, leaving themselves even more vulnerable at an already suspect area for them. They rank 31^st in the league against the opposition’s WR2 and while they haven’t given up a ton of yardage to the position, the low ranking is attached to touchdowns allowed to them.

Golden Tate, WR DET – His red zone target percentage took a significant drop from where it was in Week 13 as Theo Riddick and a banged-up Calvin Johnson saw most of the targets. He did still find the end zone twice, but even with this week’s matchup with the Saints, you may not want to expect a significant increase inside the 20. Megatron is still primed to play, Riddick continues to see a steady diet of looks and with the Saints ineptitude against the tight end, look for Eric Ebron to get into the mix. Tate should still be a solid play, but don’t expect him to return to that 28-percent red zone target rate this week.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 15 Match-up to Watch

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles – While most eyes will rightfully be on the Monday night game, this matchup looks like it could be explosive through the air, as evidenced by the 50.5 over/under. The Eagles pass defense may rank 10^th overall, but they could be without cornerback Byron Maxwell and they already rank just 26^th against opposing No. 1 wideouts. Carson Palmer should throw a heavy number of targets Larry Fitzgerald’s way and Michael Floyd continues to impress as he plays through a hamstring issue. And, of course, you can’t forget the speedy John Brown. On the other side, the Arizona corners can be tough, but the Eagles are going to have to throw often to keep pace. Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper should try to shorten things up rather than challenge the corners deep, Nelson Agholor finally got into the action last week and don’t look now, but the Cardinals rank 27^th in the league against running back pass plays. Hello Darren Sproles!