Target Watch: Digging Deep

Now that we’re here in Week 14, everyone should be in full-on playoff mode and if this week can come close to matching Week 13 in scoring, then this is going to be one exciting fantasy playoff round. We had some crazy high-scoring games to enjoy, a number of final-drive wins and a splash overtime which always keeps fantasy owners on edge. And with all of that, we saw 26 players with double-digit targets and 16 with 100 or more receiving yards. It was a points bonanza, particularly in PPR play.

The best part about this stretch of the season is that you’ve got a lot of “new” faces making an appearance in the weekly stat-leaders lists. With the number of injuries we continue to see each week, we keep seeing relevant names pop up on the waiver wire in most 12-team leagues. Deeper leagues, particularly the ones with deeper benches, make it a little tougher, but we’re still seeing some suddenly-relevant names there too. It’s all hands on deck right now for a number of teams and you can start digging a little deeper to find some unusual waiver darlings right now. Just take a look at the weekly target leaderboard.

Week 13 Target Leaders

Running Back Resurrection?

James White, RB NE – Relying on a Patriots running back is one of the worst things you can do to yourself in the fantasy realm, but with Tom Brady’s current receiving corps working out all their own personal kinks, he’s got to turn into Check-Down Charlie before he takes a complete beating. Brady has taken eight sacks and 24 other big hits in the last three games and is simply going to dump the ball off rather than lose the yards which means White just may have a little staying power.

Javorius Allen, RB BAL – While Justin Forsett’s injury paved the way for Allen’s opportunity, it was the fact that Matt Schaub was under center that really boosted his impending value. Schaub, who may not even play a full game this week, used Allen any chance he could last week, handing the ball off to him 17 times while sending a team-high 13 targets his way. Allen can be explosive with the ball in his hands and he is going to be a focal point of the offense moving forward. Tough match-up with Seattle this week, but given the state of the position, he should probably warrant consideration.

Bilal Powell, RB NYJ – The fact that Powell saw so many targets was more of a game flow situation than it was a reflection on Chris Ivory. The Giants did a good job containing the rushing attack, but the short pass to the running back, this being Powell, was like their Kryptonite. Or maybe more like a Tecmo Bowl play that always works against them. Whichever the case may be, it’s not going to be a consistent game plan for the Jets and there, Powell’s value is limited to deeper PPR leagues. He’ll still see his usual five targets, but it seems unlikely that he’ll be near the top of this leaderboard again.

Rising Receivers

Michael Floyd, WR ARI – Welcome back to the party. After a brief hiatus due to injury, Floyd is back near the top of the targets leaderboard once again and has regained that WR2 status in Arizona. John Brown will still see a fair number of targets, but Floyd seems to really have Carson Palmer’s attention when he’s on the field.

Brian Hartline, WR CLE – It certainly isn’t one of the sexiest names out there, but with Travis Benjamin nursing a sore shoulder, both Taylor Gabriel and Andrew Hawkins concussed and even Gary Barnidge even dealing with a sore ankle, Hartline looks like a top choice on this team whether it’s Johnny Football or Austin Davis under center. He should be a PPR monster if Barnidge and/or Benjamin remain out or limited.

Nate Washington/Cecil Shorts, WR HOU – With DeAndre Hopkins seeing most of the defensive attention, both Shorts and Washington will continue to see plenty of one-on-one coverage that Brian Hoyer and the Texans would like to capitalize on. Hopkins will still see his targets, his much-larger slice of the pie, but both of these receivers become high-end WR3 with the upside of being a decent WR2 in the right match-up. This week against the Patriots might be a tough match-up, but they should fare well against the Colts in Week 15.

Ted Ginn, WR CAR – If he can stop dropping passes at such a rapid rate, he could be in line for more action moving forward as defenses look to key in on Greg Olsen a little more. There’s still plenty of competition for targets among a fairly mundane group of receivers, but Ginn has the chance to really put something strong together over the next three weeks if he proves to Cam Newton that he can be a reliable outlet.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

Charles Clay, TE BUF – The re-emergence of Sammy Watkins has done nice things for Clay’s targets and this will likely maintain through the rest of the season. The No. 1 wideout is drawing coverage and while he commands more attention form the secondary, Clay is finding himself a little more open than he was a couple of months ago. Robert Woods seems to have emerged a bit recently, but Clay should still maintain is place as the No. 2 option for Tyrod Taylor. With Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham getting hurt as well as current injuries to Gary Barnidge and Tyler Eifert, folks are scouring for tight ends left and right. While they’re over-bidding for Scott Chandler and Kyle Rudolph, Clay should remain an under-the-radar option.

Pierre Garcon, WR WAS – Not sure why I always have such a soft spot for Garcon, but the return of DeSean Jackson is killing what was already a diminishing value. When Garcon was seeing 8-to-10 targets per game there was a little hope of him finding the end zone and returning some value. He’s now dropped to the 5-to-7 target range and has seen one red zone target over the last four games. Maybe in a 14 or 16-team league he’s usable, but he’s barely a WR4 in 12-team leagues.

Red Zone Target Leaders

Jordan Matthews, WR PHI – After screwing over fantasy owners throughout most of the season, Matthews has suddenly stepped up with a touchdown in each of his last two games and he’s now got three in his last five. Not eye-popping numbers at all, but he’s seeing a high percentage of red zone looks which should give him value despite the lack of big yardage numbers. It’s not what we were hoping for when we all drafted him in the third and fourth round, but it’s better than what we’ve had from him before.

Doug Baldwin, WR SEA – His crazy breakout over the last two weeks has been mind-numbing to a certain degree, but maybe it shouldn’t have been completely unexpected. The Seahawks have never been a strong passing team and lost Jimmy Graham. So while defenses felt better about stacking the box and keeping a spy on Russell Wilson, the coverage on Baldwin has remained average, at best. With that, he’s now started to see a slight uptick in red zone targets which could continue over the next few weeks. Teams may start to wise up, but with Baltimore and Cleveland for the next two weeks, Baldwin should see plenty of action.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 14 Match-Up to Watch

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – You had to figure that any game with the Saints, a team that has allowed an average of 38.5 points per game over their last four, would be a no-brainer selection, so the fact that Vegas has a 50 ½ over/under should help solidify those thoughts. Jameis Winston is going to go crazy with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, but now also throw in a healthier Austin Seferian-Jenkins and a few Chris Sims pass palys and you’ve got points galore against the Saints again. On the flip side, with Mark Ingram now done for the season, you have to figure the ground game is going to take a back seat once again. While the Bucs defense has looked a little better in recent weeks, they still rank 24^th in the league against the pass and have allowed 24 passing touchdowns on the season. Drew Brees is going to be slinging the rock hard this week and Brandin Cooks, Ben Watson and possibly even a returning Willie Snead will make an appearance. I also wouldn’t be giving a certain Twitter follower the credit due if I didn’t also give a shout out to GPP play extraordinaire, Brandon Coleman.