Last week, some seriously talented fantasy football analysts gathered via cyberspace to talk trash and put our egos where our mouths are drafting in the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio hosts draft. Those fantasy football savants included luminaries such as NFFC gurus Greg Ambrosius (HOF) and Tom Kessenich, Doctor Roto, the inimitable Lisa Ann, Real Talk Raph and more. Oh, and of course, there was little old me representing team Colton & the Wolfman.
Here is a little secret I publicize more than I should: Rick and I are not the most studied football analysts, do not spend 365 days a year studying NFL depth charts or watching film and are not the best talent evaluators in the business. Don’t get me wrong, we are pretty good at that stuff. However, we have developed a solid plan and we each make sure we stick to that plan – a plan that has already netted us 6 “expert” fantasy football titles including two last year. How did we do? Read on.
The Rules/Format:
This league is a classic 12 team PPR format where you draft 16 players and start 1 QB, 2RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), a DST and a kicker.
Our Draft Slot: Pick 9
The Team Round by Round:
Round 1 – Melvin Gordon: Somewhere my buddy Yahoo Noise, Brad Evans is smiling at our Gordon pick and it is not the tequila talking. Loyal readers/listeners and followers of the SMART system know we are all about the running backs. Why? Because undisputed number 1 backs are so rare. Gordon is one of those backs. In 2016, Gordon netted 1,400 yards from scrimmage, 12 TD and 41 receptions. I will take that all day and every day! Oh, and few backs have as much job security as Gordon (anyone afraid of Branden Oliver or Andre Williams? I did not think so). I know Ken Whisenhunt likes to throw but Gordon will touch the ball one way or another. Frankly, I was very relieved when Tom Kessenich passed on Gordon to take A.J. Green (a great player but not one who fits the SMART system in round 1).
Round 2 – DeMarco Murray: Yes, I know all about Derrick Henry. And yes, I was hoping that Ezekiel Elliot would have made it to pick 16. But no, he got sniped (as did Jay Ajayi) just before it was my turn again. All that said, Murray fits the system just fine and we are happy to have him as an RB2. In 2016 Murray showed that the problem in Philly was Chip Kelly and that system, not DeMarco himself. In Tennessee last year, Murray finished with over 1,650 yards from scrimmage, 12 TD and 50+ receptions. Like with Gordon, sign me up. Murray is a do it all back – run, block, receive – so concerns about him sitting on the bench often are way overstated. Indeed, keeping Mariota healthy is critical and Murray will be there beside him to block and catch the check downs.
Round 3 – Marshawn Lynch: The S in SMART stands for system. The Oakland Raiders will run the football a lot behind that talented offensive line. They will also pound the rock in the red zone. Indeed, last year, Latavius Murray rushed for 12 TD and he is no Beast Mode. Lynch is going home to the Bay area. Those who are in the know say he would not go home and play for Oakland if he did not think he could do the Silver and Black proud. I think he will and as an RB3, I say hello Beast Mode! [Note: I heard Dr. Roto say he was glad we passed on DeAndre Hopkins to take Lynch. Ok, reasonable minds can differ but have you ever tried to throw a football to yourself downfield? Hard to do. The QB situation in Houston chased us off of Hopkins]
Round 4 – Golden Tate: With 3 RB on board, it was very much time to start loading up on the WR. Frankly, I do not understand why Tate is still around in round 4 in PPR leagues. Remember, S stands for System and the Lions system is to throw, throw and throw as they have no RB who can carry a rushing load. The other reason I really like Tate are that he has caught 90+ per year for three years running and this year will have no Megatron and no Anquan to challenge him for number 1 status.
Round 5 – Emmanuel Sanders: With three RB and one WR, we needed to grab another WR. Like Tate, Sanders has been very consistent. 75+ receptions and 1,000 yards in each of the last three seasons, including two years ago with a lot of Brock Osweiler and last year with Trevor Semien (a 7th round pick who had not played in the NFL before last year). You have to figure that Semien will be better than he was a year ago. That is good news for Sanders. More good news: The Broncos really did not bring in anyone to take targets away from Sanders and Demaryius Thomas.
Round 6 – Brandon Marshall: So, does anyone think Marshall will benefit from a better QB and defenses double and triple teaming OBJ? I thought so. Marshall has been a TD machine over his career – 45 TD from 2012-15. What makes Marshall an even more attractive fantasy candidate this year is that the Giants really do not have the ability to pound the rock in short yardage situations (goal line included). Shane Vereen? Paul Perkins? These guys hardly make you think of Marshawn Lynch or John Riggins. Marshall will put up the TDs but I will be rooting against him when he plays my beloved Cowboys.
Round 7 – Adrian Peterson: In round 7? Pick 81 overall? What happens every time we doubt AP? He comes back with a vengeance. Yes, I know the Saints like to throw. Yes, I know AP is 32 years old. Yes, I know Mark Ingram is pretty good. However, Peterson has never played with a QB like Drew Brees and thus never had the luxury of knowing the other team cannot put 8 men in the box to stop him. If AP is once again AP, then at pick 81, this will be the steal of the draft. Go big or go home. We went big.
Round 8 – Corey Coleman: Kenny Britt is a nice player but Coleman will be the number 1 wideout in Cleveland. Coleman was a fantasy rock star out of the gate last year before getting hurt: 173 yards and 2 TD for a guy drafted in the latter half of almost every fantasy draft. Nice. Coleman has blazing speed and a serious vertical leap. Translation: This guy is an athlete who will get a chance to show what he can do now that Terrelle Pryor is playing for the Washington football franchise. Yes, I know Cleveland will be bad but is that so bad for fantasy? No. Garbage time is fantasy crunch time and Coleman will come through!
Round 9 – Martellus Bennett: With no QB or TE on our roster and half of the draft in the books, it was time to grab one of those. Given that a) two of the three teams that would pick before we picked again had QBs and b) Cousins, Cam, Big Ben and more were still on the board, it made sense to grab a TE. Yes, I know Marty B is in Green Bay with a QB who does not favor the TE. However, not since Jermichael Finley has Rodgers had this kind of playmaker at TE. His upside is high and if he craters, no big deal. The TE position is so deep in fantasy this year that future HOF Jason Witten was not even drafted in this 12 team, 16 round draft.
Round 10 – Cam Newton: Wow, the best QB in fantasy in 2015 goes in round 10! Yes, I know Cam is coming off of shoulder surgery but reports out of camp are that his arm strength is back. Yes, I know people say Cam will not run as much now that he had an injury. Whatever! When push comes to shove, Cam will keep the ball in the red zone plenty. Finally, there should be plenty of passing yardage accumulated as Christian McCaffrey catches the ball all over the field. Just as with Bennett, the upside is great and the downside not that high as QB is super deep in fantasy (as evidence by our snagging Dak Prescott two rounds later).
Round 11 – Zay Jones: At this point with 6 rounds remaining, it was time to add to our WR and RB depth. With Sammy Watkins gone and Jordan Matthews already hurt, Zay Jones was moving up the ladder in Buffalo (of course, he moved up further when Anquan Boldin retired this week). Jones is a rookie but he is a talent with opportunity and athleticism. His 4.45 40 yard dash is very fast for a 6’2” receiver. Bottom line: Zay caught 158 balls last year in college and may well be the number 1 receiver on his team. I will take that in round 11 for upside all day and twice on Sunday.
Round 12 – Dak Prescott: This is both Cam protection and belief in a guy who has succeeded and overcome the odds at every level. Forget the numbers, the NFL game is simply not too big for Dak. How many rookies can put a team on their back in the playoffs and take their team back from an 18-point deficit against Aaron Rodgers? Not many. Yes, I know Zeke may be out for 6 games but Run DMC can run behind that line and Dez is once again healthy – the Dez that caught 7 TD passes from Dak in the last 9 regular season games in which they played together. Dak will be a top 12 QB in fantasy. Book it.
Round 13 – Latavius Murray: We needed on more RB to fill out the depth. Again, in the SMART system, upside matters. With all the hype about Dalvin Cook, people forget that Murray is all of 27 years old and had 12 TD last year. Yes, the Vikes do not have the Raiders line but they also do not have Carr, Cooper and Crabtree taking up a significant portion of the offensive touches. Murray could easily return round 4 value if he gets the starting job out of the gate or even during the early part of the season. If not, well it was a round 13 flyer. [Of course, pairing Latavius Murray with DeMarco Murray has a good feel to it as well – ok, not really.]
Round 14 -- Dan Bailey: He is simply a great kicker who is super clutch. He is on almost every one of my fantasy teams and will continue to be as long as I have any say in it. Plus, with Gostkowski and Tucker going in the two picks before this, it was clear the kicker run had started. I was more than happy to feed that beast with Bailey.
Round 15 – Vikings DST: They have some good playmakers but the reality is that one can always stream defenses so this was as good a pick as any to start the year.
Round 16 – Kevin White: The T in SMART stands for Talent. White has that and more. While I personally think Cam Meredith will be the number one wideout in Chicago, that does not mean White is not super talented. He is. If the uber-talented White can stay on the field, he will be a huge bargain. If not, it was round 16, so what was lost. [Full disclosure, I thought long and hard about taking Jason Witten here as how could he not get drafted! However, I stayed true to the SMART system mantra of upside late].
Final Analysis: This is a classic Colton & the Wolfman SMART system team with 3 bell cow backs in rounds 1-3, solid but unspectacular WRs, two quality though not top 3 pre-season rated QBs, big time upside in the middle and late rounds and of course, the great Dan Bailey as the kicker. Playoffs here we come!