Trying to capitalize on an asset at a high point is always the goal. There are many pitchers taken in the late rounds or picked up off the waiver wire that are off to great starts.
Some of them are for real and others are getting lucky, taking advantage of a soft schedule or going through a good stretch. Here are some pitchers off to great starts and the outlook for them.
Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Rogers was one of my late-round targets and I have him in many leagues and he's been better than I thought. He's a 23-year-old left-hander that throws hard with a good slider and changeup. Rogers is 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 34.9 percent strikeout rate and 9.2 percent walk rate. After walking six batters in his first ten innings, Rogers has walked four in his last 18 innings. There's nothing to suggest this is a fluke. The concern will be the innings as Rogers skipped Triple-A and pitched 28 innings with the Marlins last season. He pitched 136.1 innings in the minors in 2019. We don't know what's going to happen with innings for many pitchers and I am going to take the innings while I can and figure it out later in the season if a pitcher is shut down or limited. I believe in Rogers and need to be overwhelmed to deal him.
Matthew Boyd (Tigers): I drafted Boyd in a few leagues. He was going late and had 238 strikeouts in 185.1 innings two years ago, but he allowed 39 home runs as well. Boyd was awful last season but is off to a great start in 2021. He is 2-2 with a 1.82 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 16.7 percent strikeout rate and 4.5 percent walk rate. The good news is Boyd has cut down on the walks, he’s allowing fewer barrels and less hard contact. Boyd is throwing a lot more first-pitch strikes but getting fewer swings and misses. The strikeout rate is too low and the swinging strike rate of 9.1 percent is a big drop from 14-percent in 2019. When Boyd got the strikeouts in 2019, he threw his slider more than his changeup. This year, he's throwing the slider less and changeup more. Boyd's biggest problem has been home runs with a HR/9 of 1.43, 1.89 and 2.24 the last three years. In 2021, it's 0.26 and that's not sustainable. A .220 BABIP has helped and with a fly ball percentage of 45.5 percent, the home runs will likely come as the weather gets warmer. If someone believes Boyd has figured things out, take advantage if the offer is good.
Steven Matz (Blue Jays): I covered Steven Matz in high school and got to see him often with the Mets. I have always rooted for him and it was perplexing watching him with the Mets since he looked good often and then would have starts in which he got destroyed. Home runs have been his problem. Since 2017 his HR/9 by year has been 1.62, 1.46, 1.52 and 4.11 last season in 30.2 innings. In four starts with Toronto, Matz is 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 27.2 percent strikeout rate and 8.7 percent walk rate and he’s allowed two home runs in 23.2 innings. Matz has benefitted from a .214 BABIP and a ten percent HR/FB rate, which is below his career average of 17.2 percent. The velocity is similar to last season and there's not a significant change in pitch usage. Matz has the worst first-pitch strike percentage of his career at 51.1 percent. Matz pitches in a tough home park in Dunedin and has made three of his four starts on the road in Texas, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. If someone believes the change of scenery has turned Matz into a new pitcher, take advantage and capitalize.
Jake Arrieta (Cubs): It appeared the end was near with the way Arrieta looked the last two years with the Phillies. He's off to a good start with the Cubs. Arrieta is 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22.2 percent strikeout rate and 9.4 percent walk rate. Arrieta used to be a ground ball pitcher and has allowed a 43 percent fly ball rate in 2021. The velocity on the fastball is down one mile per hour to 91.2. The success is based on the schedule. Arrieta has faced a bad Pirates offense twice, a bad Brewers offense twice and a slumping Mets team. A 0.64 HR/9, .260 BABIP and 83.3 left-on base percentage won't last. If someone believes this start, sell immediately.
Jakob Junis (Royals): After two bad seasons, Junis is off to a great start. He is 1-1 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 28.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.4 percent walk rate. He's another pitcher hurt by the home runs the last few seasons with HR/9 of 1.63, 1.59 and 2.49. This season, he has allowed one home run in 23.1 innings. The big difference for Junis this season is a new cutter. Junis had 13 swinging strikes in his start Tuesday against the Pirates and eight were via the cutter. Junis has a 12.2 percent swinging strike rate, which is the best of his career. Junis is allowing more hard contact and the xERA is 4.88, but the addition of the cutter makes him intriguing.
Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): I liked DeSclafani when he was on the Reds and he had a few good seasons with them, but the home runs limited his upside. The Giants have done a great job bringing pitchers in from other teams and turning them around. DeSclafani is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 25 percent strikeout rate and 5.8 percent walk rate. While there has been some luck with a .247 BABIP and 91.6 percent left-on base percentage, DeSclafani has pitched well and increased his ground ball percentage to 54.9 percent. He has a career-high 12 percent swinging strike rate. He has an xERA of 2.95 and he will be a solid pitcher the rest of the way.
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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday that he expects Evan Phillips (forearm) to only require a minimum trip to the injured list.
It’s an encouraging update after Phillips hit the injured list on Wednesday afternoon with forearm discomfort. Roberts added that the 30-year-old high leverage staple won’t need to undergo an MRI and is likely to return when first eligible in roughly two weeks.
Freddie Freeman went 3-for-4 with four RBI on Wednesday, propelling the Dodgers to a 10-1 blowout victory over the Marlins.
Freeman has owned the Marlins dating back to his days as Atlanta’s primary offensive catalyst and the phenomenon continued during Wednesday’s series finale when he broke a scoreless stalemate with a sixth-inning RBI single before scalding a bases-clearing, three-run triple in the seventh inning to break the contest wide open. He finished the three-game series with a whopping eight RBI and the Marlins are sure glad to see him leaving loanDepot park.
Matt Mervis went 0-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts on Wednesday in a loss to the Dodgers.
It’s worth noting that rookie backstop Agustín Ramírez went 2-for-4 in this one and is now hitting .283 through 14 games to open his big-league career. Meanwhile, Mervis’ latest hitless performance leaves him at .191 through 29 contests. The Marlins have top prospect Joe Mack, who is a phenomenal defender behind the plate, pushing to reach the big leagues soon. The logical decision would be to shift Ramírez to a full-time DH role, which would likely bump Mervis from the roster altogether.
Rowdy Tellez hit a three-run homer Wednesday in the Mariners’ 6-5 takedown of the A’s.
Tellez brought the Mariners to within one run in the sixth, and Seattle later went ahead of Dylan Moore’s double in the eighth. The homer was Tellez’s fifth of the year. Even though he’s batting just .208, he has 18 RBI in 84 plate appearances.
Bryan Woo threw six innings and allowed five runs Wednesday in a no-decision against the A’s.
The A’s were able to stack their hits together against Woo; they had four in scoring three runs in the first and three in the two-run fourth. Woo allowed just one hit over the other four frames, and he finished up with six strikeouts and one walk. He’ll take a 3.25 ERA into a home start against the Yankees next week.
Andrés Muñoz turned in a scoreless ninth with a one-run lead to earn his 13th save Wednesday against the A’s.
Muñoz struck out two and got a flyout after a leadoff single. He’s up to 18 innings without having allowed an earned run.