Are we sure Francisco Lindor from 2022 and Francisco Lindor from 2021 are the same person? Is it at all possible that Lindor just tricked us with a Michael Keaton-style “Multiplicity” moment last season – just running out a doppelganger in his place every night? Lindor through the first two weeks of the 2022 season looks nothing like the player we saw last year, and he looks poised to retake the crown as perhaps the best fantasy shortstop option in the league. 

 

 

Consider the numbers the Mets shortstop has amassed through his first 14 games. Lindor's counting stats look like this: four homers, three steals, 12 runs, and 10 RBI. He didn’t have the combination of those numbers until May 29th last season. As of Friday morning, he's now hitting .308 with a .419 on-base percentage this year. Lindor’s average was above the Mendoza line only five days before June 2nd in 2021 – and it was never higher than .233 throughout the season. 

Do we believe in the return to elite status for Lindor this year? What’s changed from 2021 to 2022 for the New York Mets shortstop?

 

 

A Good Run of Bad Luck

Clint Black once sang about betting everything after a good run of bad luck, and bad luck is the first thing that stands out from Lindor’s profile in 2021. The batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was especially out of line with his career numbers:

Season

BABIP

AVG

OBP

SLG

2015

0.348

0.313

0.353

0.482

2016

0.324

0.301

0.358

0.435

2017

0.275

0.273

0.337

0.505

2018

0.279

0.277

0.352

0.519

2019

0.291

0.284

0.335

0.518

2020

0.280

0.258

0.335

0.415

2021

0.248

0.230

0.322

0.412

2022

0.293

0.308

0.419

0.615

Career

0.292

0.279

0.344

0.480


 

The .248 BABIP last season is a complete outlier and is the first thing we can look to when considering possible regression. Through 14 games, that number is right back on track for Lindor – which should lead to a slash line that’s more recognizable based on his history. 

What makes that BABIP even more incredible is the fact that Lindor had the highest HardHit% of his career last season (44.1%). Typically, hard-hit balls and barrels are the most likely to turn into hits – but it just didn’t fall that way for Lindor in 2021. 

Making First Contact

The other driving force in the bounce back for Lindor is a return to normalcy in his contact rate. After a slight dip in the shortened 2020 season, that number cratered to 77% in 2021. 

So far, it has bounced back considerably this year – all the way to 86%, which is slightly better than his career number of 83.3%. Even though his chase rate of 29.6% last season was lower than his career number of 32%, he still only made contact in the zone 85% of the time. That number ranked 34th among all shortstops in 2021, behind such legendary names as Alcides Escobar and Cole Tucker. 

 

 

The Final Verdict

Fully knowing we can’t make large-scale assumptions on just 62 plate appearances, it certainly looks like Lindor is back to full, five-category greatness. Maybe last season's slump was due to the new park or the new contract or the new expectations. Whatever it was, we can likely chalk it up as fluky and not a long-term deterioration of skills. 

I’m fully back in on Lindor as a top fantasy option and we might be talking about him as a first or second-rounder again next season. 

 

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