The Atlanta Braves have attempted the Robinson Canó experiment at second base and then acquired Ehire Adrianza at the 2022 MLB Trade Deadline. After neither came to fruition, the Braves decided to not waste any more time and call up top prospect Vaughn Grissom. Until Ozzie Albies is ready to return to the lineup from the MLB injury report, the hope is that Grissom would provide a quality bat at second base and fill a gaping hole in the team’s lineup. To be frank, Grissom has done that and more while living up to his MLB top prospect billing. Those fantasy managers that made him a priority fantasy baseball waiver wire pickup are certainly reaping the rewards early. Has he done enough to stick in the Braves' starting lineup upon Albies’ return? What type of production can we expect from Grissom the rest of the way? Wille he continue to rise up fantasy baseball player rankings and MLB projections? Let’s highlight Atlanta’s top prospect Vaughn Grissom in this week’s fantasy baseball player spotlight.

 

Through seven big-league games, Grissom is slashing .400/.464/.720 with two home runs, four RBI, eight runs scored, and one stolen base. He’s just 21 years old and he only had 98 plate appearances at the Double-A level before getting the promotion. So, at some point, there are going to be some growing pains with Vaughn. However, he's helping out fantasy baseball lineups everywhere for those that added him off the waiver wire.

While we’ve seen two home runs in just 25 at-bats at the big league level already, Grissom has a 32nd percentile max exit velocity thus far. He also has a fly ball rate of just 21.1% and a GB/FB ratio of 1.75. Half of the fly balls he’s hit have resulted in home runs thus far, but his xSLG of .656 is considerably lower than his actual .720 mark. This is not a knock on Grissom, as he can develop into a more reliable power hitter with time. Still, mainly for this season, I’d temper expectations on the overall power numbers.

Remember, Grissom is still only 21 and there will likely be negative regression as major league pitchers adjust to him. He only had 98 plate appearances at the Double-A level before getting called up to Atlanta's big-league roster. Plus, the power marks were minuscule prior to his production at High-A this season as he doesn’t project to be a big-time power hitter. 

As expected, when going right from Double-A to the game’s highest level, we’ve seen an uptick in Grissom’s strikeout rate. At A-ball in 2021, he posted a 14.9% strikeout rate – which was his highest mark at any stay in the minors. Through 28 plate appearances in the MLB, he has a 21.4% strikeout rate. Here are a couple of relevant numbers that stick out and while they may not be a major cause for concern quite yet, I’m watching these closely:

Stat

Grissom

MLB Average

O-Swing%

37.5%

32.5%

Contact%

75.4%

76.7%

SwStr%

12.6%

11.1%

Hard Hit%

21.1%

30.2%

Avg. Exit Velocity

86.0

88.6 mph

Courtesy of FanGraphs

To be fair, some of these numbers may just need to normalize a bit. Think about it, Grissom is a 21-year-old kid trying to make his best impression and there may be some elements of “hero ball” in his game right now – which could be skewing some of these numbers. These are numbers that I will be monitoring moving forward. If he continues to leave the zone and swing-and-miss more than the league average, that strikeout rate could continue to tick up and his batting average will inevitably suffer.

It may be too late to add Grissom in your fantasy baseball leagues at this point but if he’s still available, go scoop him up. I’m all in favor of that. However, the big question is going to be, has he done enough to warrant regular playing time upon the return of Ozzie Albies? The team has been eyeing a mid-to-late August return for Albies, and we are now entering that window. I think if the production doesn’t decline, he will operate in a platoon. Playing time should suffice early on upon Albies’ return, because the team would be wise to DH him to get his bat in the lineup, but not have the added stressors and physical toll of playing defense. 

Could Grissom move around the infield to give other guys a day off? Sure. Outfield, maybe? Sure, he seems athletic enough. I think we have more questions than answers at this juncture, but each game leading up to Albies’ return is a showcase for Grissom to force the team’s hand to leave his bat in the lineup.

Grissom is not a full-proof prospect by any means. All the talent is there, absolutely, but the questions about his power output are legitimate. Plus, if he doesn’t command the strike zone more efficiently, his strikeout rate could increase further. He’s been great thus far, don’t get me wrong, and I believe that he’s worth rostering in all but the shallowest of formats. 

Still, if there is a noticeable dip in play leading up to Albies’ return, he could lose a good chunk of at-bats and fantasy baseball managers will pay that price. Grissom has looked excellent through his first big-league action to date. Just keep an eye on the numbers I called out earlier in this article, as well as his production in the coming days.

Atlanta’s top prospect needs to force the team’s hand into keeping his bat in the lineup on a near-everyday basis. From a fantasy perspective, this is a great lineup to be a part of, and Grissom has the tools to be a fantasy difference-maker down the stretch. Temper your expectations on the power output, though, and be wary of an elevated strikeout rate in the future. Nonetheless, enjoy the speed and other counting stats while Grissom is in the Braves lineup.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseballsavant.mlb.com

 

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