One of the hottest fantasy baseball waiver wire additions of late is Texas Rangers infielder Ezequiel Duran. Honestly, he deserves those roster spots in fantasy baseball, given that in 10 games he has two home runs, five RBI, eight runs scored and two stolen bases while slashing .325/.341/.525 across 40 at-bats. While he only has second base eligibility in ESPN fantasy baseball leagues, those who play on Yahoo Fantasy can slot him in at second, short, or third base, sweetening the pot even further. Duran has been productive to start his career, and there’s no denying that, but how long can this production last? Don’t get me wrong, you should be adding him if he’s available in your league, but he’s also a guy that I’m not afraid to sell high while the going is good.

 

 

Duran’s prospect pedigree was never that of a Jarred Kelenic or Julio Rodríguez, but he was regarded as a top 100 prospect coming into the season. His major league career started hot in rookie ball in 2017, but 2018 and 2019 were completely different stories. Then, in 2021, the power showed up in a big way as he hit 19 home runs in just 416 at-bats, while also adding 19 stolen bases. Then, prior to his call up this year, he was slashing .317/.365/.574 with seven home runs and seven stolen bases in 183 at-bats. You can point to the increased production overall as a major positive, but after posting an insane 31.3 percent strikeout rate in 2021, that mark was cut to under 20 percent in 45 games at Double-A this year. That is some solid improvement, but it’s still worth noting that for his minor league career, he struck out at a 28.7 percent clip.

For a guy that has just 45 games and 183 at-bats above High-A prior to his call up, he’s been exceptional with the big league club. As expected, the strikeouts are there, coming in at a 26.8 percent mark with a 36.3 percent whiff rate. For comparison’s sake, here are a couple of players with similar plate discipline metrics to Duran:

Name

O-Swing%

Contact%

SwStr%

K%

AVG

wOBA

xBA

Avisaíl García

45.00%

63.50%

21.90%

28.70%

0.228

0.260

0.241

Ezequiel Duran

40.50%

65.00%

20.60%

26.80%

0.325

0.375

0.272

Brandon Lowe

36.20%

66.50%

18.30%

25.60%

0.212

0.310

0.244

Kole Calhoun

35.00%

67.70%

17.30%

25.40%

0.238

0.303

0.265

Courtesy of FanGraphs

At least here in 2022, guys with the swing-and-miss in their game don’t hit for this high of an average, and the other players have bigger power profiles so you can live with the swings-and-misses for the 400+ foot blasts out over the walls. Duran is graded above average in terms of raw power, but his 45/55 game power grade is average to slightly above average on the 20-80 scale.

 

 

When a player is over performing and the sample size is small, the expected statistics are going to paint quite a story. However, a guy with a 35/40 hit tool hitting .325 while riding a .407 BABIP has all of the regression alarms going off inside my head. His strikeout rate is elevated, and if opposing pitchers begin to pepper him with breaking stuff, that 41.9 percent whiff rate is going to quickly overshadow his .313 batting average on those types of pitches thus far. Take a look at his expected statistics, and you’ll see that the writing is on the wall, and once more tape is out there on Duran, the struggles will come.

BA

xBA

SLG

xSLG

wOBA

xWOBA

.325

.270

.525

.395

.375

.293

 

When looking at his Statcast metrics, his batted ball profile in those terms is on par with the likes of Cristian Pache, Randal Grichuk, Amed Rosario, and Jackie Bradley Jr. For what it is worth, the average xBA and xWOBA for that quartet is .250 and .288 respectively. Do with that what you will.

This isn’t to say that I don’t like Duran or I don’t believe that he can impact your fantasy baseball team in the short term. I absolutely think he can. What I’m getting at here is that if someone wants to trade something of value for him, I would consider it in a heartbeat, as there will be growing pains for the 23-year-old, and the more tape that gets out on him, we are going to see more hitless outings than a constant barrage of multi-hit efforts.

If Duran is available in your fantasy baseball league, you should pick him up, but he is the perfect sell-high candidate while there’s some prospect hype around him, and multi-category production early on in his MLB career.

 

Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
Baseballsavant.mlb.com

 


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