2022 Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight: Jonathan India a Buy-Low Candidate?
After an impressive 2021 season where he hit .269 with 21 home runs and 12 stolen bases, Jonathan India was primed for a big sophomore season at 25 years young for the Cincinnati Reds. From January 1 to April 1, he was the 12th second baseman off the board, per NFBC data, going just inside the top 90 picks overall. However, he’s largely been a fantasy baseball bust at this point, as he’s slashing just .221/.273/.321 with three home runs, two stolen bases and a -0.6 WAR through 36 games in the first half of the 2022 season. India likely doesn’t cost much in trades at this point, but is it worth buying low on a second-half bounce back for the Cincinnati second baseman? Let’s examine.
Jonathan India Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight
The answer is no. There are a lot of red flags with India. Sure, you can blame it on his inability to establish a rhythm as he has been in and out of the lineup in the first half of the season. In mid-April, he went on the injured list, just to return for a couple of days before a hamstring injury kept him out of the lineup for all of May and half of June. Establishing a rhythm is a real thing, and I’m not discounting that, but even when you set that aside, there are other more pressing issues.
Everything is down. I wish I was kidding, but other than strikeout rate, swinging strike rate and chase rate, everything is down. And, to the criteria mentioned there, those numbers being down would be good, but they are up. We’ll circle back on those.
After posting a 9.6 percent barrel rate last year, that mark sits at 2.9 percent this season. His average exit velocity is down by more than four miles per hour, and his .219 xBA is a far cry from last year’s .254 mark. To put it into perspective, if India had enough at-bats to qualify, his 2.9 percent barrel rate would be the 22nd-lowest in Major League Baseball, in the same realm as Jacob Stallings (2.7%), César Hernández (2.8%), and Nico Hoerner (3.1%). If you think that is bad, his average exit velocity of 83.4 miles per hour would be the third-lowest in Major League Baseball, besting only Victor Robles (82.2mph) and Willi Castro (83.2mph).
When he has made contact, things haven’t gone overly well for India, but one of the biggest issues for me is what happens when he isn’t making contact. Yes, the strikeout rate is up slightly, and he’s whiffing more. However, what the heck happened to India’s ability to take ball four? After posting an 11.3 percent walk rate in 2021, that mark is down to a measly 2.7 percent this season.
From the above graph, we see that India is not only swinging more, but also swinging more out of the zone, which has largely aided in the increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks. If the walks don’t return, even if he starts hitting for a better average, he’s going to be a drain on your team’s on-base percentage (OBP) if your league values that. Even since returning from injury in mid-June, he only has a 2.9 percent walk rate. Can we blame this all on the inability to establish a rhythm? Also, at what point do we throw that excuse out the window, given that he’s been a stalwart in the lineup for nearly a month now? It feels like we’re holding onto hope here with India, and I’m not convinced that the performance and peripherals this year warrant such hope.
Lastly, from a fantasy perspective, since returning from missing time with a hamstring injury, he’s just 2-for-4 in stolen base attempts over his last 25 games, and on the year as a whole, his sprint speed per Baseball Savant is down from the 86th percentile to the 62nd percentile. Just saying.
He has a good home park for offense, but his increased launch angle with diminished exit velocity isn’t a recipe for success for India. Additionally, that stark decrease in his walk rate is glaring, making him incredibly hard to start and even roster in leagues that value OBP over batting average. If you are currently rostering India, you’re in a tough spot, because you aren’t going to net a large return for him by any means.
Let me throw this last thing out there. Of second baseman, per FanGraphs, with at least 150 plate appearances on the season, India has the third-lowest runs above replacement (RAR) at -5.3 and third-lowest WAR at -0.6. To me, he’s not someone worth buying low on either, as there are too many glaring issues with the production and peripherals.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
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