2022 Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight: Is Jorge Mateo Worth Adding Off Waiver Wire?
Every week, we break down a different MLB shortstop to examine — good or bad. Maybe it's an MLB top prospect, a “flavor of the month” on the fantasy baseball waiver wire, or someone who could be “sell-high” trade bait. Sometimes, it's a superstar or burgeoning player who is turning in the season we were all hoping for and rising up fantasy baseball rankings. In this edition of the Fantasy Alarm Player Spotlight series, we will turn our attention to Jorge Mateo. The Baltimore Orioles shortstop has been both very good (stolen bases) and VERY bad (batting average) this year. The debate that is raging right now in fantasy circles is, “Is it worth the average risk to roster his stolen bases?” What are some MLB projections and fantasy baseball expectations for Mateo for the rest of the season? Here we will break down the risks and rewards of rostering such a polarizing player in fantasy baseball lineups.
Jorge Mateo Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight
Jorge Mateo was a complete afterthought in spring fantasy baseball drafts. In NFFC drafts before the season started, he had an ADP of 440. This was a player who had 237 career plate appearances before 2022 and would be batting low in the order for an absolutely terrible Baltimore Orioles’ offense. He had shown some flashes of speed in 2021 (10 steals) but the power and on-base skills were basically nonexistent.
To make matters worse, Mateo had 39% and 26% strikeout rates in his first two seasons with walk rates under 5% both years. He was certainly worth leaving on waivers by the time most drafts were complete a few months ago.
Fast forward to July 2022, however, and Mateo is tied for the major league lead in stolen bases (21) with Julio Rodríguez. According to Baseball Savant, his sprint speed is in the 99th percentile of all MLB players. That’s the good news. The bad news is he has the third-lowest batting average among all qualified hitters this season (.194). In fact, his batting average has been above .200 for only three days since June 19th.
How do we handle a player like that, one that can win you a rotisserie category all by himself but also lose you one as well? As we will see, the rewards might actually outweigh the risk.
Mateo’s Stolen Base Rate is Unmatched
While the batting average for Mateo is certainly an albatross for our fantasy teams, it does come with a smaller measure of upside. Yes, he may be under .200 for the season, but he only ranks 122nd in plate appearances on the year (277). That means he isn’t nearly the drain on your team that someone like Myles Straw (.194 in 324 plate appearances) or Trent Grisham (.191 in 312). Batting eighth or ninth in 59 of his 77 games has kept the plate appearances low, but hasn’t affected the stolen base opportunities one bit.
Mateo not only leads the majors in stolen bases, but he also leads in weighted stolen base runs above average. That means in his 277 plate appearances, he has added more to his team’s run totals than players like Rodriguez, Tommy Edman, and Christian Yelich – all of whom have at least 70 more plate appearances than Mateo.
The Orioles’ shortstop does more with his limited time at the plate than any other player in baseball. Here is a list of all players with at least 10 stolen bases this season, ranked by stolen bases per plate appearance.
Name | PA | SB | AVG | SB/PA |
273 | 20 | 0.193 | 0.073 | |
339 | 21 | 0.277 | 0.062 | |
264 | 15 | 0.256 | 0.057 | |
332 | 18 | 0.258 | 0.054 | |
358 | 19 | 0.262 | 0.053 | |
269 | 13 | 0.276 | 0.048 | |
307 | 14 | 0.262 | 0.046 | |
356 | 16 | 0.264 | 0.045 | |
357 | 16 | 0.306 | 0.045 | |
270 | 11 | 0.256 | 0.041 | |
324 | 13 | 0.194 | 0.040 | |
352 | 14 | 0.238 | 0.040 | |
360 | 14 | 0.239 | 0.039 | |
287 | 11 | 0.289 | 0.038 | |
J.T. Realmuto | 295 | 11 | 0.240 | 0.037 |
322 | 12 | 0.236 | 0.037 | |
328 | 12 | 0.246 | 0.037 | |
356 | 13 | 0.251 | 0.037 | |
333 | 12 | 0.285 | 0.036 | |
344 | 12 | 0.298 | 0.035 | |
302 | 10 | 0.213 | 0.033 | |
311 | 10 | 0.288 | 0.032 | |
320 | 10 | 0.225 | 0.031 | |
343 | 10 | 0.259 | 0.029 |
Once again, Mateo far outpaces the field in stolen bases per time up to bat. He is able to generate more stolen bases with fewer opportunities than any other player in 2022. And that’s why he is worth rostering on our fantasy squads.
Mateo Should be Rostered Almost Everywhere
Like with everything in fantasy baseball, context is king. If you are in a tight battle near the top of your standings in batting average and don’t need much help in steals, then Mateo is not the player for you. But for a team desperate for speed and able to take a slight hit to batting average, Mateo is the right kind of player to roster.
Any teams in need of steals that would move them up more places in the standings than they would move down in batting average should be taking a look. Because of the low average and low name recognition, Mateo is readily available in many Yahoo, ESPN, and Fantrax leagues.
Considering the Orioles don’t have much to play for and are just seeing what they have in their young guys, there is no reason for them not to give Mateo the green light the rest of the season. We won’t ever be able to be confident in a high batting average or on-base percentage, but we can be confident in knowing he is going to be off to the races any time he makes it to first base.
Check out our list of the best, and most trusted sports betting and fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state.
Related MLB Links:
- July Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Daily Round-Up
- MLB Injury Report
- MLB Streaks & Trends
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.