Every week, we break down a different MLB shortstop to examine — good or bad. Maybe it's an MLB top prospect, a “flavor of the month” on the fantasy baseball waiver wire, or someone who could be “sell-high” trade bait. Sometimes, it's a superstar or burgeoning player who is turning in the season we were all hoping for and rising up fantasy baseball rankings. In this edition of the Fantasy Alarm Player Spotlight series, we will turn our attention to Jorge Mateo. The Baltimore Orioles shortstop has been both very good (stolen bases) and VERY bad (batting average) this year. The debate that is raging right now in fantasy circles is, “Is it worth the average risk to roster his stolen bases?” What are some MLB projections and fantasy baseball expectations for Mateo for the rest of the season? Here we will break down the risks and rewards of rostering such a polarizing player in fantasy baseball lineups. 

 

 

Jorge Mateo Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight

 

 

Jorge Mateo was a complete afterthought in spring fantasy baseball drafts. In NFFC drafts before the season started, he had an ADP of 440. This was a player who had 237 career plate appearances before 2022 and would be batting low in the order for an absolutely terrible Baltimore Orioles’ offense. He had shown some flashes of speed in 2021 (10 steals) but the power and on-base skills were basically nonexistent. 

To make matters worse, Mateo had 39% and 26% strikeout rates in his first two seasons with walk rates under 5% both years. He was certainly worth leaving on waivers by the time most drafts were complete a few months ago.

Fast forward to July 2022, however, and Mateo is tied for the major league lead in stolen bases (21) with Julio Rodríguez. According to Baseball Savant, his sprint speed is in the 99th percentile of all MLB players. That’s the good news. The bad news is he has the third-lowest batting average among all qualified hitters this season (.194). In fact, his batting average has been above .200 for only three days since June 19th. 

How do we handle a player like that, one that can win you a rotisserie category all by himself but also lose you one as well? As we will see, the rewards might actually outweigh the risk.

 

Mateo’s Stolen Base Rate is Unmatched

While the batting average for Mateo is certainly an albatross for our fantasy teams, it does come with a smaller measure of upside. Yes, he may be under .200 for the season, but he only ranks 122nd in plate appearances on the year (277). That means he isn’t nearly the drain on your team that someone like Myles Straw (.194 in 324 plate appearances) or Trent Grisham (.191 in 312). Batting eighth or ninth in 59 of his 77 games has kept the plate appearances low, but hasn’t affected the stolen base opportunities one bit. 

Mateo not only leads the majors in stolen bases, but he also leads in weighted stolen base runs above average. That means in his 277 plate appearances, he has added more to his team’s run totals than players like Rodriguez, Tommy Edman, and Christian Yelich – all of whom have at least 70 more plate appearances than Mateo. 

The Orioles’ shortstop does more with his limited time at the plate than any other player in baseball. Here is a list of all players with at least 10 stolen bases this season, ranked by stolen bases per plate appearance.

Name

PA

SB

AVG

SB/PA

Jorge Mateo

273

20

0.193

0.073

Julio Rodríguez

339

21

0.277

0.062

Harrison Bader

264

15

0.256

0.057

Randy Arozarena

332

18

0.258

0.054

Tommy Edman

358

19

0.262

0.053

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

269

13

0.276

0.048

Kyle Tucker

307

14

0.262

0.046

Cedric Mullins

356

16

0.264

0.045

Trea Turner

357

16

0.306

0.045

Thairo Estrada

270

11

0.256

0.041

Myles Straw

324

13

0.194

0.040

Marcus Semien

352

14

0.238

0.040

Whit Merrifield

360

14

0.239

0.039

Luis Robert

287

11

0.289

0.038

J.T. Realmuto

295

11

0.240

0.037

Bobby Witt Jr.

322

12

0.236

0.037

Adolis García

328

12

0.246

0.037

Christian Yelich

356

13

0.251

0.037

José Ramírez

333

12

0.285

0.036

Dansby Swanson

344

12

0.298

0.035

Cody Bellinger

302

10

0.213

0.033

Starling Marte

311

10

0.288

0.032

Trevor Story

320

10

0.225

0.031

Shohei Ohtani

343

10

0.259

0.029

Once again, Mateo far outpaces the field in stolen bases per time up to bat. He is able to generate more stolen bases with fewer opportunities than any other player in 2022. And that’s why he is worth rostering on our fantasy squads. 

 

Mateo Should be Rostered Almost Everywhere

Like with everything in fantasy baseball, context is king. If you are in a tight battle near the top of your standings in batting average and don’t need much help in steals, then Mateo is not the player for you. But for a team desperate for speed and able to take a slight hit to batting average, Mateo is the right kind of player to roster. 

Any teams in need of steals that would move them up more places in the standings than they would move down in batting average should be taking a look. Because of the low average and low name recognition, Mateo is readily available in many Yahoo, ESPN, and Fantrax leagues. 

Considering the Orioles don’t have much to play for and are just seeing what they have in their young guys, there is no reason for them not to give Mateo the green light the rest of the season. We won’t ever be able to be confident in a high batting average or on-base percentage, but we can be confident in knowing he is going to be off to the races any time he makes it to first base. 

 

 

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