After originally getting snubbed from the 2022 MLB All-Star Game, Carlos Rodón earned a spot on the National League roster as a replacement for Milwaukee’s Josh Hader. Those that roster Rodon in their fantasy baseball lineups know full well the San Francisco Giants starting pitcher is worthy of an All-Star appearance this season. Heck, he’s even having a Cy Young-caliber campaign while sitting near the top of fantasy baseball rankings and MLB projections. If you snagged Rodon in fantasy baseball drafts ahead of this 2022 MLB season, you’re likely jumping for joy right now. All-Star bid or not, the Giants’ southpaw has been anchoring your pitching staff to help you avoid scouring the fantasy baseball waiver wire or MLB top prospects as often. Let’s take a closer look at how and why Rodon is among the MLB stats league leaders in the latest Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight.

 

 

Carlos Rodón Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight

 

 

If you haven’t been paying close attention to Rodon’s dominant season, take a look at his 2022 numbers at the All-Star break. The San Francisco left-hander boasts a 2.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 rate, and .211 batting average against with a 131:35 K:BB ratio over his 105 innings pitched and 18 starts. He capped off the first half of the season with two impressive outings in his last two starts – a 12-strikeout complete game victory and then seven K's with one run allowed. Rodon has been turning in quality starts on a pretty consistent basis all season long and will now get the recognition he deserves at the Midsummer Classic.

Rodon’s stellar 2022 campaign is almost as good as his breakout season from last year as a member of the White Sox. In his final season with Chicago in 2021, the southpaw posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with career-high numbers in many advanced stats. He arguably should’ve been the AL Cy Young, but shoulder fatigue in August forced missed time and limited him at 24 starts for the season. Rodon ultimately finished behind Robbie Ray, Gerrit Cole, Lance Lynn, and Nathan Eovaldi in the voting – although the stats told a slightly different story.

When looking at Rodon's advanced stats from both 2022 and 2021, you can see just how dominant he has been. This year, his first with the Giants, the 29-year-old has a 2.14 FIP, 2.85 xERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 29.8% whiff rate, 5.4% barrel rate, .225 expected batting average against, and .281 expected wOBA against. Most of those stats are in the 85th percentile or better among MLB pitchers this year and are almost as good as last season. 

For comparison’s sake, he had a 2.65 FIP, 2.68 xERA, 34.6% strikeout rate, 33.2% whiff rate, 6.6% barrel rate, .189 xBA, and .254 xwOBA in 2021. Either way, Rodon's Statcast profile looks pretty good at the All-Star break:

These past two seasons from Rodon have now thrust him into the upper echelon of MLB starting pitchers. It’s pretty impressive once you consider he once had an ERA above 4.00 in each of his previous five seasons before 2021. Just check out how his stats from last year with the White Sox and this season with San Francisco compare to his prior struggles.

SeasonERAFIPWHIPBAAK%BB%
20222.662.141.110.21130.88.2
20212.372.650.960.18634.66.7
20195.193.621.440.23629.110.8
20184.184.951.260.21817.610.8
20174.154.691.370.24325.610.4

Notice how we left out the 2020 season. That’s because Rodon pitched just 7.2 innings that year after returning from Tommy John surgery. He had an 8.22 ERA in the limited work that season and we can essentially ignore the stats considering such a small sample size and injury factor. It's important to note that the 2019 season also only included seven starts before he went under the knife.

The Tommy John surgery is still worth mentioning, though, because Rodon has been a completely different pitcher since the procedure. His fastball velocity, in particular, has increased notably. The lefty was sitting between 91-94 miles per hour in average four-seam fastball velocity in the early seasons of his career in Chicago. Since the surgery, he jumped up to 95.4 mph fastball average last year and now 95.9 mph this season – and even pushing 100 at times. That’s a very notable uptick in velocity and Rodon’s rebuilt left elbow has made his fastball an elite weapon. 

Just check him out hitting 99 on the gun to finish off his complete-game gem with his 12th strikeout against the Padres earlier in July.

Rodon’s uptick in fastball velocity is a big reason why he’s turned into an elite-level starter. Last year, his four-seamer allowed a .199 batting average and .264 wOBA against. This season, those marks are at a .222 BA and .280 wOBA allowed on the fastball. Maybe not as dominant, but still pretty good. The velocity increase has also made Rodon much more confident on the mound when he knows he can blow it by opposing hitters and pinpoint his spots. 

What’s interesting about Rodon’s fastball is that he throws it 62.1% of the time. Not many starting pitchers in this day and age can get away with throwing a heater that often in his repertoire and still be lights-out on the mound. That category is usually reserved for late-inning relievers. Even more notable is that Rodon’s arsenal basically includes only two pitches – the four-seamer and the slider (31.9%). He also has a curveball (5%) and changeup (1%), but those have been barely thrown this season. 

So, Rodon is essentially coming at hitters with two pitches in his bag. It’s either the 95-99 mph fastball or the 85 mph sweeping slider that can be deadly coming from his left-hand side. The slider, by the way, has allowed a .216 batting average and .238 wOBA against with a 35.6% K rate this season. 

If you have Rodon on your fantasy baseball team, you can count on him pumping out solid outings every time out. The higher strikeout rate per start should also continue as his fastball/slider combo is a filthy one that's generating plenty of strikes, swings-and-misses, and helpless hitters. Considering his 2.14 FIP, 2.85 xERA, and .307 BABIP, there shouldn't be too much regression coming for Rodon's 2022 fantasy stats. The low 3.9% HR/FB rate is maybe a bit concerning, but moving to a more pitcher-friendly park in San Fran has aided that number as well. On the flip side, consider making a move to acquire Rodon in trades if possible. You can feel confident giving up a good hitter or two to grab a Cy Young-caliber starter in Rodon. 

 

 

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