Today's MLB PrizePicks player prop board has a few plays that I am keyed in on with notable matchups for the Reds Luis Castillo against the Diamondbacks who struck out 12 times against Tyler Mahle last night and Rays southpaw Shane McClanahan against the Yankees. I'm also targeting a pair of pitchers who have tough starts on the road today against some top-tier offenses in baseball. We went 4-0 last night so let's look to keep the party going here today!

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PrizePicks Top Plays

 

Luis Castillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Our featured play yesterday was Castillo's teammate Tyler Mahle in this very same matchup where he was also listed with a strikeout prop of 5.5 and he finished with 12 strikeouts after finishing with 10 strikeouts in his start prior against this Arizona team. Castillo, like Mahle, is a strikeout pitcher despite the fact his strikeout totals this year do not exactly jump off the page. We saw his upside with a 10 strikeout performance against the Red Sox but overall he has a 23% strikeout rate with just a K/9 of 8.5. If we look a little deeper into the numbers however we see that in four of his last five starts he has faced teams that rank in the bottom third in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Diamondbacks have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and over the past two weeks, their team strikeout rate against righties sits at 26%. Like yesterday, I'm banking on the matchup and strikeout upside here with Castillo to get us over the total.

 

Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Pretty interesting strikeout prop here today as McClanahan takes the mound against a very tough New York Yankees lineup. In his 12 starts, this season McClanahan has failed to go over today's strikeout total just once. He has even faced the Yankees already this season and finished with seven strikeouts over six innings while allowing just one earned run. McClanahan is one of the league's elite strikeout pitchers, boasting a 35.5% strikeout rate and a K/9 of 12.19. Against left-handed pitching, this season the Yankees have the ninth-highest strikeout rate in the league at 23.5% and over the past two weeks, they have the seventh-highest strikeout rate against southpaws at 23.2%. This is certainly a risky matchup given the fact the Yankees are playing at home here as well but McClanahan is a Cy Young front runner for this season and that strikeout upside is just too good for a total this low.

 

Konnor Pilkington Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed

We have a game total of 12 runs between the Guardians and Rockies tonight with Cleveland sending rookie southpaw Pilkington to the mound in Coors Field. Pilkington has made two starts this season, pitching a five-inning shutout against the Royals in his first start while allowing four earned runs over five innings in his most recent outing against the Oakland A's. Neither offense he faced will match the caliber of the offense he runs up against tonight, especially given the venue. On the year the Rockies rank 2nd in batting average, 8th in OPS, and 7th in wOBA against left-handed pitching. When at home the Rockies have the highest league batting average, 3rd highest wOBA and 4th highest OPS. Pilkington also has an ERA of 3.57 on the season but his xERA(expected ERA) is 5.24. I look for the Rockies to do some damage here against the rookie southpaw.

 

Bruce Zimmermann Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed

We went after Jordan Lyles last night with the Blue Jays offense with a earned run prop total of 3.0 and fortunately, we got there late in the game. Lyles has pitched much better this season than the man who is taking the mound here tonight in Bruce Zimmermann who has a 5.52 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP this season. Over Zimmermann's last five starts he has an ERA of 9.47 while allowing 27 runs over 25.2 innings. He hasn't allowed less than four earned runs in any of those five starts. Zimmermann has an xERA on the season of 6.46. Against left-handed pitching, this season the Blue Jays rank 3rd in batting average, OPS and wOBA.

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