MLB PrizePicks Cheat Sheet - Best Player Prop Plays for June 13: Cristian Javier Takes on the Rangers
Today's MLB PrizePicks player prop board has a few plays that I am keyed in on with notable matchups for the Astros Cristian Javier against the Rangers and Cardinals southpaw Zack Thompson making his major league starting debut against the Pirates. Once again, I suggest looking at the sportsbook such as BetMGM, DraftKings, or FanDuel to compare betting odds on props to the PrizePicks board. For example one of today's top plays is listed at -145 on the over and while that should not be the end all be all when it comes to your research it is certainly a nice indicator when used as part of your research.
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PrizePicks Top Plays
Cristian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Strikeout ability is not the concern I have when it comes to Javier as the Astros starter has a 30.4% strikeout rate and boats a K/9 of 11.3 which are both elite-level numbers. The issue with Javier is his inefficiency. He tends to throw a lot of pitches and he walks a lot of hitters at a rate of 3.22 BB/9. Because he doesn't typically pitch deep into games we get a strikeout prop total that is much lower than most with his kind of strikeout upside. So, there is definitely some risk here that Javier throws 90 pitches in four innings and he gets taken out. That said, in his most recent start against the Rangers, he went six innings while striking out nine. As a team, the Rangers' strikeout rate is quickly on the rise, with the fourth-highest strikeout rate over the past two weeks at 24.4%. Let's look for Javier to take advantage of the recently more free-swinging rangers and hope he repeats his most recent performance against them when he takes the mound tonight.
Zack Thompson Over 3.5 Strikeouts
Thompson made his major league debut earlier this month when he came out of the bullpen and pitched four innings against the Cubs, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out three. At the minor league level, Thompson has had mixed success this season, posting a 4.67 ERA over 10 starts but does have 56 strikeouts over 44.1 innings. The strikeout upside is where the intrigue lies for me today as he faces off against a Pittsburgh Pirates team that has a league-worst 32.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the past two weeks and overall this season they have the third-worst strikeout rate at 24.8%. This number actually opened at 4.0 strikeouts on PrizePicks this morning and is now down to 3.5. If you take a peek at the sportsbooks like BetMGM, DraftKings, and Caesars we see odds ranging from -140-to-150 on the over 3.5 strikeouts for Thompson today. Let's see what the kid has in his first major league start.
Taylor Hearn Under 88.5 Pitches
This is a pretty spot number for Hearn here today as he faces the Houston Astros for the third time this season. In his first meeting, Hearn threw just 84 pitches as he allowed four runs on five hits over five innings. In his second meeting, he threw 89 pitches while allowing four runs on six hits over 4.2 innings. Hearn has only gone over 88.5 pitches in four of his 11 starts this season but three of those outings have come in his last four starts. After struggling with lefties to open the season the Astros are starting to really hit southpaws, posting a .292 average and a .378 wOBA over the past two weeks. Houston has already had success against Hearn this season and I look for them to get to him early enough in this game that he's gone before reaching his max pitch count.
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Player News
Teoscar Hernández (illness) remains out of the lineup for Tuesday’s contest against the Rockies.
The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports Hernández was feeling well enough to be at the ballpark on Tuesday, but he’s going to get an additional day off to rest and recover. It’ll be Andy Pages in right field for the second straight night. There’s a chance he’s ready to return for Wednesday night’s series finale.
Brock Stewart (hamstring) will begin a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday with Low-A Fort Myers.
Stewart is still a couple weeks away from returning to Minnesota’s high-leverage mix, but it’s a great sign that he’s ready to kick off a rehab assignment. The 33-year-old righty has been out since spring training recovering from a left hamstring strain.
Ronald Acuña Jr. (knee) has been cleared to ramp up baseball activities and progress towards a minor league rehab assignment.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Justin Toscano adds that Acuña remains without an official return timetable, but seems on scheduled to return at some point in the next month, as originally expected. It’s a significant development for fantasy managers that the superstar outfielder appears on track to make his season debut at some point in mid-May.
Jake Burger is out of the lineup for Tuesday’s game against the Angels with an illness.
Josh Smith is also out of the lineup nursing a thumb contusion. Burger takes a seat with Ezequiel Duran taking over at the cold corner in his absence. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now. The 29-year-old slugger has gotten off to an ice-cold start at the dish this season, batting .151 (8-for-53) with two homers and seven RBI through 15 games.
Logan O’Hoppe is absent from the lineup for Tuesday’s game against the Rockies due to illness.
O’Hoppe told reporters he’s feeling better ahead of Tuesday’s showdown against the Rangers, but he’s going to get an extra day off to rest and recover. Fantasy managers should anticipate him being ready for Wednesday’s contest. It’ll be veteran Travis d’Arnaud handling the catching duties in his place.
Griffin Canning has been scratched from Wednesday’s start against the Twins due to illness.
No word yet on Griffin’s potential replacement, but top pitching prospects Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell, Nolan McLean all pitched recently in the upper minors and won’t be options. It could wind up being a bullpen game for the Mets unless they want to have David Peterson take the ball on short rest, which doesn’t seem ideal.