MLB DFS Value Vault August 28: Nate Lowe Looks to Stay Hot in Texas
Good morning, FAmily! Happy Sunday and no better way to end your weekend than with some major league baseball! Sunday baseball has a reputation for being out of the ordinary, so fantasy baseball managers must be on their toes as they build their MLB DFS lineups. Today’s DFS slate starts at 1:35p ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo Fantasy. DraftKings and FanDuel will cover 11 games while Yahoo brings us 15 games throughout the afternoon. The weather forecast looks pretty good but make sure to check our MLB Weather Center before lock. We also have MLB Lineups, MLB Vegas Odds plus projections and a lineup builder in our Fantasy Alarm MLB Tools page. To get the big arms and bats in your lineups you will need to find some value plays and that’s where we come in. I have spent the morning researching and coming up with the best point per dollar plays on the slate. So, let’s get right into it and open Sunday’s MLB DFS Value Vault...
MLB DFS VALUE PITCHERS
Ross Stripling (TOR) $7.4K DK$7.7K FD/$41 Yahoo
Ross Stripling missed the first two weeks of August with a glute strain but has been near lights out since his return. He is 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA and .360 OPS in his first two starts since coming off the IL and in 12 starts since June 1, he is 6-3 with a 2.06 ERA and is only allowing a .219 opponent batting average. Stripling also is allowing a 56% groundball rate with 42% chase rate since his return and today will face the Angels who are striking out 25.4% against RHP over the last 15 days and 25.2% on the season. This is probably a pay up for pitcher slate but if you are looking for value Stripling is the best in the value range and has a strong chance of picking a win and quality start.
Kohei Arihara (TEX) $6.7K DK/$31 Yahoo
I know some of you may be laughing but Kohei Ahara has not been as bad as advertised this season. He is a high-risk play but facing a team that we have picked on since day one- the Tigers. He is coming off a six-shutout inning start on the road against the Twins where he earned 20.5 DK fantasy points. He has made two starts this season and in his first start he did strike out six A’s in a loss after allowing three runs in 5.2 innings. The Tigers are striking out at a major league high 29.4% rate and have scored the third fewest runs. This is a boom or bust play but if you get five or six solid innings out of Arihara his price opens up another big bat for your lineup.
MLB DFS VALUE HITTERS
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) $3.7K DK/$2.8K FD
Rowdy Tellez is the top point per dollar play on the board. He is a lefty hitting platoon player that excels against right-handed arms and has a plus matchup against Adrian Sampson today. On the season he has a team best .279 ISO on the split with a .342wOBA and 44.8% hard contact/41.5% fly ball rate. With an OPS of .825 against RHP compared to .696 against LHP Tellez is in a good spot to hit his second jack in three days
Mark Mathias (TEX) $2.0K DK/$2.5K FD/$16 Yahoo
As Justin Vreeland pointed out in today’s Playbook – Mark Mathias is raking. He is slashing .3932/.400/.679 over his last 10 games with two bombs and 10 RBIs. He is making hard contact as seen by his n 90.5 mph EV and a 183 wRC+ with a .423 wOBA (.328 xwOBA) is not too shabby. Mathias gets a fairly easy matchup today against Drew Hutchison who does not miss many bats (12.5% to RHH) and is allowing 40% hard contact. After a 2-for-3 day yesterday Mathias has now made three straight starts and could crack the lineup again today. GPP dart here but he comes at a minimum price.
Nate Lowe (TEX) $3.8K DK
Why is Nate Lowe still this cheap on DraftKings? He is en fuego and had another huge week. Lowe slammed three homers in a 4-game span. He had a big 3-for-6, 5-RBI game against the Rockies on Wednesday night and over his last 20 games is hitting .385 with 6 HR/19 RBI. Over that 20-game span Lowe has an elite .282 ISO/.473wOBA with an incredible 207.2 wRC+. Today he faces Drew Hutchison who is allowing a .349 wOBA to left-handed bats to go along with a 45% fly ball rate. Pretty confident that Lowe’s hot streak continues today.
OTHER MLB DFS TOP VALUE PLAYS
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT) $23.4K DK/$2.5K FD/$13 Yahoo
Kike Herndandez (BOS) $3.4K DK/$2.7K FD/$12 Yahoo * hot since coming off IL (.313 BA)
Mark Canha (NYM) $3.7K DK/$2.7K FD * .412 BA over last 121 games
Bubba Thompson (TEX) $2.0K DK/$8 Yahoo * at least one hit in 11 of his 12 starts; 4 steals in last 8 games
Dan Vogelbach (NYM) $2.8K FD/$3.9K DK
Jeremy Peña (HOU) $7 Yahoo
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Player News
Yainer Diaz delivered a go-ahead two-run single in the sixth inning on Tuesday night, leading the Astros to a 6-4 victory over the visiting Tigers.
The Astros entered the sixth inning without a run and facing a 2-0 deficit. Christian Walker came through with an RBI double though that cut the lead in half and then Diaz followed with a two-run single that put them ahead to stay. Diaz also capped off the Astros’ scoring with an RBI knock in the seventh inning, finishing the night 2-for-4 with three RBI. He’s had a very rough go at the plate this season, slashing a pitiful .187/.213/.308 with just two homers and 12 RBI.
Christian Walker went 2-for-3 with an RBI double and a run scored on Tuesday night, helping to lead the Astros to a come-from-behind victory over the Tigers.
A night after a two-run homer from Walker helped to spur a comeback win over the Tigers, Walker played a similar role on Tuesday evening. He finally got the Astros on the board with a two-out RBI double off of Reese Olson in the sixth inning. He then raced around to score on a two-run single by Yainer Diaz that gave the Astros a 3-2 lead. Perhaps he’s finally coming out of his early-season funk. With his two-hit night, Walker is now hitting .206/.289/.373 with four homers and nine RBI on the season.
Josh Hader struggled in a non-save situation on Tuesday, giving up a pair of runs on two hits in his inning of work against the Tigers.
It looked like Hader would have a quick inning in this one, as he got Dillon Dingler on a bouncer back to the mound and Andy Ibanez on a fly ball to right. Kerry Carpenter followed with a two-out double though and Gleyber Torres then crushed a two-run homer that cut the Astros’ lead to two runs. Not to worry though, as Hader rallied to strike out Zach McKinstry to end it. Hader has been terrific for the Astros and for fantasy managers this season, posting a 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and a 20/3 K/BB ratio over his first 15 innings while notching a victory and eight saves.
Ryan Gusto pitched fairly well in a no-decision against the Tigers on Tuesday evening, allowing two runs on four hits over his 4 1/3 innings.
The rookie right-hander racked up six strikeouts on the night while allowing a pair of free passes. He served up a leadoff homer to Kerry Carpenter to start the ballgame then kept the Tigers’ at bay until the fifth where he allowed an RBI single to Gleyber Torres before turning the ball over to the bullpen. Gusto got 12 swings and misses on 90 pitches on the night — five of those on his curveball — while posting a CSW of 29 percent. Gusto has pitched well in his chances with the Astros, posting a 3.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 29/6 K/BB ratio over 27 innings in his first eight appearances (four starts). He’s lined up to get the ball once more on Monday against the Brewers in Milwaukee.
Kerry Carpenter homered for the second consecutive game on Tuesday night, but it wasn’t enough to power the Tigers to victory over the Astros in Houston.
Carpenter started off the game with a bang for the Tigers, crushing a 398-foot (104.2 mph EV) solo shot off of Ryan Gusto to give his team a 1-0 lead before an out had been recorded. He also doubled off of Josh Hader in the ninth inning and rode home on the two-run blast by Gleyber Torres. The 27-year-old slugger finished the night 2-for-5 and is now hitting .277/.303/.543 to go with seven homers and 14 RBI.
Reese Olson pitched decently in Tuesday night’s loss to the Astros, giving up three runs on four hits over his 5 2/3 frames.
The 25-year-old right-hander piled up seven strikeouts on the evening while issuing three free passes. He actually kept the Astros off the board completely through the first five innings but allowed a two-out RBI double to Christian Walker in the sixth inning before turning the ball over to the bullpen. Will Vest then came on and gave up a two-run single, allowing both inherited runners to score and putting Olson on the hook for the loss. He’ll bring a 3.55 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 32/14 K/BB ratio (33 innings) into Sunday’s matchup against the Angels in Los Angeles.