Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Thursday, April 17th!

We’re diving into the action with a 5-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have a really small slate, so it's time to get a little uncomfortable! We have two high-end pitchers in tough matchups, so there could be leverage opportunities. There are also good offenses squaring off against pitchers that don't strike anyone out! It makes for a very interesting slate, where it's truly tough to have serious conviction behind any pitcher. I'll personally be playing three lineups tonight and doing some mixing and matching where it makes sense. Be sure to tune into our 5 p.m. show for more from the guys!

Whether you’re hunting for GPP glory or locking in cash game success, we’ve got tailored insights to help you conquer today’s matchups. Let’s dive into the key plays and strategies to dominate the slate!

 

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you our favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

There will also be a daily MLB DFS Show with a variety of hosts ranging from myself, Jon Impemba, Howard Bender, and James Grande. The MLB DFS Show will give you an initial outlook on the day's MLB DFS slate and should give you a good base for the start of your research each day! 

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

 

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Thursday, 4/17

There are no weather issues to report. 

 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Is this the worst pitching slate of 2025? If you thought it was brutal yesterday, you're going to love it here! You can honestly make a case for anyone other than Sugano, Kochanowicz, and Rocker. Here are my favorite (I hate to even use the word “favorite”) three pitchers for tonight:

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay

Something has to give. The Yankees have the second-highest implied team total, but you'll see below in my hitters section, the range of outcomes could be extreme. It's a tiny ballpark and hot hitting weather, which is a potentially disastrous combination for any pitcher. Bradley has been giving up a decent chunk of fly balls, which also doesn't bode well for him. But if we are talking about raw points and ceiling? Bradley probably has the highest ceiling on the slate. He's striking out 36% of lefties and 26% of righties. The range of outcomes is enormous here, and I plan on having both sides to the this game in my handful of builds. It's possible Bradley shoves, or that the Yankees go nuclear. My best guess? Somewhere in the middle, a few home runs – but hopefully for Bradley's sake, they're solo shots with minimal damage and he'll rack up enough strikeouts to be useful on this tough slate.

 

Reese Olson, Detroit

I was really high on Olson coming into the season, but things haven't been great. But this is a garbage slate for pitching, and there are a few reasons to back him tonight. For starters, Kansas City ranks about dead last in many advanced metrics vs. RHP this season. We're seeing a 7.5 game total on the board, and the Tigers are -155 favorites. That's great news. Although he's struggled a bit punching out righties and walking them, he's giving up a measly 2% barrel rate. This is shaping up to be a great get-right spot. Price is also a big deal here, as he's one of the cheaper plays on the slate at pitcher. You'll see an ugly 6.00 ERA attached to his name but a lower xERA and FIP. Avoid walks and Bobby Witt, and I think Olson has one of the best odds to pay off his price tag tonight.

 

Will Warren, New York Yankees

This is a tough one, but we don't have a lot to work with. Warren is pretty cheap, and it's warranted. He hasn't wowed anyone this season, but the K stuff has always been there. Much like Bradley, we're dealing with a small park and good hitting conditions. That being said, price is a huge influence on the decisions we make – and Warren (like Olson) is appealing due to his salary relief. Dating back to last season, walks have gotten Warren into trouble, especially against lefties (15%). The good news is that this Tampa Bay team does not like to draw walks, so if you're backing Warren, you're hoping a lot of those balls in play are not in the air. I prefer Olson in this price range, but on this silly slate, it'd be silly to not have some Warren exposure.

 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Core MLB DFS Hitters

 

Go Go Power Rangers vs. Jack Kochanowicz

It’s tough to hunt for one-off power or value when a player is squaring off with a ground-ball pitcher – or a hurler that TRIES to induce ground balls. The Rangers are a stack for me. They own the highest implied team total on the board, and there will likely be decent ownership attached to that on a small slate.

That being said, Kochanowicz is striking out just 13% of hitters after striking out only 9% of them in 265 plate appearances last season. Of course, it’s baseball, and anything can happen. Heck, we saw multiple gas-can pitchers (Patrick Corbin, Bailey Falter, etc.)  luckbox into great outings less than 24 hours ago. I’ll keep taking whacks against guys who have zero K stuff. 

I feel like this matchup is screaming Joc Pederson, who actually has 53 plate appearances (which is respectable) against right-handed sinker dating back to the beginning of last year, and he has put up a .225 ISO, .381 wOBA, a big-time 66% hard-hit rate, and a gigantic 23% barrel rate vs. that right-handed pitch. Joc has been off to a terribly slow start to the season, but this is a get-right spot. Corey Seager makes sense on every slate, especially since he’s the cheapest of the “studs.” Off the top of my head, I thought he would *probably* be the second most likely SS to go deep tonight besides Gunnar Henderson, and after a check at BetMGM, I’m onto something. Seager (currently) has the third-highest odds of any projected starter on the main slate to go deep (+340) behind just some guys named Aaron Judge and Mike Trout. Adolis Garcia has looked much better lately, hitting in six of his last eight games, and having some good historical numbers vs. righty sinkers. Josh Jung has been a monster since returning from the IL, and the Rangers also have some good value pieces in Josh Smith and Leody Taveras.

It seems like there are a few reasons why Kochanowicz can be exploited aside from the fact that the ball should be put in play in almost every at-bat. Through three starts, lefties own a .273 ISO, 61% hard-hit rate, and a 15% barrel rate against him. He also has not kept the ball on the ground against lefties, sporting a bad 46% fly-ball rate. Maybe the sinker isn’t…sinking – a pitch that he’s thrown well north of 50% of the time to both sides of the plate this year. So, in summary, he doesn’t strike out anyone, he’s predictable, and he hasn’t kept the ball on the ground nearly as much (so far, through just three starts) against lefties.

 

Mike Trout and/or a full Angels stack
 

Maybe there will be a very bad recency bias after Nolan Ryan…I mean Patrick Corbin…befuddled the Angels on Wednesday when they were straight chalk. I don’t think we’ll get that lucky. Look, Kumar Rocker flashed in the spring, but the “it’s just Spring Training” truthers have certainly earned that victory lap so far. Rocker has been miserable in the regular season, striking out just 10% of hitters and giving up 60% of hard contact. That being said, he IS keeping the ball on the ground, so outside of Trout, Taylor Ward, or Jorge Soler, I probably wouldn’t put much stock into one-offing some of the lesser-skilled guys. That being said, I think the Angels could bounce-back in a big way and crush as a full stack. 

Rocker has only completed more than four innings once in three starts. He’s also given up an average of almost 70% of hard contact with the two pitches that he’s thrown the most. Yikes. Let me get some Luis Rengifo toward the top of the order, who is probably $5-600 too cheap in this matchup. Jo Adell and Nolan Schanuel are also cheap, making this a very affordable stack. I’m a believer in Kyren Paris’ hot start (OK, it’s unsustainable, but I am a partial believer). He won’t really project that well because his data is so new (and he’s fairly expensive), but I really like him for GPPs as well.

 

Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, & Guardians Value

Much like Kochanowicz, Tomoyuki Sugano has yet to show anyone that he can put away MLB hitters in 2025, striking out just 8% of hitters and yielding an ugly .369 wOBA. Sugano is sporting a respectable 3.86 ERA, but under the hood (5.83 xERA, 5.44 FIP) he’s been getting lucky. He’s yet to pitch six complete innings this season, which could spell big-time trouble tonight. Baltimore used Gregory Soto and Yennier Cano last night, two of their better relievers. They might need some more length out of Sugano on Thursday night. 

It’s no surprise that Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan would be the pricier bats that interest me, while Angel Martinez has been productive (and is very cheap) and Gabriel Arias has been really good this season as another source of value.
 

Gunnar Henderson and Orioles Leverage

We have a small slate, and we might have to get a little uncomfortable. It’s still April, and we’re dealing with really small sample sizes. Bibee had two really nice outings – both against Kansas City - which ranks dead last in wRC+ vs. RHP this season. They’re an absolutely miserable offense right now outside of Bobby Witt. Bibee was totally dismantled by the Angels sandwiched in between those two starts. Now, again, there isn’t a TON that is triggering me to scream from the mountain tops here, but his K% is way down, his FIP is almost 7.00, and he’s getting barreled at a decent clip. Bibee is a fine pitcher (I think…), but he wasn’t exactly perfect vs. lefties last season either, yielding a .197 ISO and .348 wOBA.

It looks like Bibee has introduced a new cutter (for mostly right-handed batters) this season, and it’s…interesting – a 71% hard-hit rate through three outings probably won’t cut it, but his 45% whiff rate with that pitch is exceptionally good. I think that equates to: when there’s been contact, it’s been HARD! 

Now, as for how Bibee attacks lefties, he has completely lacked a third offering so far this season, throwing nearly 60% of 4-seam fastballs and 25% of changeups to LHB through three starts. That’s very predictable, and it makes total sense why lefties gave him a little trouble last season. I’m surprised he hasn’t tried to develop another (real) pitch against them. Gunnar Henderson owns a massive 71% hard-hit rate vs. righty 4-seamers since the start of last season, and Adley Rutschman has a 57% hard-hit rate and a monstrous 41% fly-ball rate against it. I do like all of the Bmore lefties tonight, especially since Bibee should be carrying a good chunk of ownership.

Again, it’s a small slate (and we’re dealing with tiny samples), and if you can make a few educated stabs, things can really pay off early in the season. Tyler O’Neil is in play, as he owns a 37% fly-ball rate vs. righty cutters dating back to the start of last season. I usually only target him vs. southpaws, but I can get behind it tonight.

On the flip side, we know CLE’s bullpen is really stingy, with Tim Herrin, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and dare I say…Emmanuel Clase. I think there’s a CHANCE Baltimore shows us some loud contact early, and let’s hope Bibee’s new pitch mix continues to be problematic. There is extra incentive here as a leverage play, as it looks like Bibee will carry a decent chunk of ownership tonight (currently second-highest pOWN%) – I’ll at least be deploying some power bats somewhere. Is Bibee’s young 2025 skewed more by a bad KC offense or a good LAA offense? We’ll find out more tonight. This look might be better suited for large-field GPPs.

Yankees, Rays, Ben Rice, & Brandon Lowe in a Tiny Ballpark

A battle of two “home” teams, as the Yankees will revisit their Spring Training stomping ground, George M. Steinbrenner Field, to battle the Rays. I like to power hunt/look for value/mini stacks in this one. Both pitchers have nice strikeout stuff, but are susceptible to either hard contact or fly balls, which doesn’t play well at a small field.
 

Will Warren has yielded a 14% barrel rate so far this year, and lefties have almost the same exact ISO (.240) as they did in 2024 against him. Last season, Warren was pretty good vs. righties, but also gave up some pop to them. Since it’s going to be roughly 80 degrees, that ball could be flying. I’m not sure if Tampa will do enough damage as an entire unit, but due to fair price, a mini stack could be useful. No hitter is above $5K on DraftKings. Kameron Misner is still too cheap at $3,900, while Jonathan Aranda has been on fire. Junior Caminero might go slightly overlooked tonight, and Brandon Lowe makes a ton of sense with that short porch.
 

As for the Yankees, you won’t find any discounted price, which might make them tough to full stack. But that doesnt mean we can't jam in a few power bats in a great spot. Aaron Judge has been absolutely locked in, but Taj Bradley has been pretty good, as expected. That being said, one of his starts was against the pitiful Rockies and another was vs. Atlanta, which ranks 20th in wRC+ and has the 2nd-highest K% vs. RHP so far this year. Again, we are in the middle of April, so it’s a little harder to point fingers and draw hard conclusions. 

What we do know is that Bradley throws ~40% of 4-seam fastballs, and the projected Yankees’ lineup is one of the best against right-handed 4-seamers dating back to the beginning of last season – having seven hitters with ISOs better than .200 against the right-handed pitch. I mean, Judge could see multiple fastballs in warm weather, and GMS has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium. What more could we ask for? Ben Rice is really, really interesting. He has higher hard-hit and barrel rates than Aaron Judge so far this season, and he’s projected to lead off tonight. Against righty 4-seamers dating back to the start of 2024, Rice has a team-leading 48% fly-ball rate – while Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, and Austin Wells each have fly-ball rates higher than 40% against that right-handed pitch. Again, small park, and Bradley has coughed up a 35% fly-ball rate so far this year. He might run into some tough HR/FB variance – as long as the Yankees can make contact. 

Devils’ Advocate? We’ve seen the Yankees get dominated by most pitchers with good stuff this season, but this is a tough draw at “home” for Bradley. It's possible Bradley gives up a towering bomb or two and still strikes out enough Yankees to be optimal. It's OK to have that line of thinking on a slate like this – with minimal pitching options and only a few games. I want to have exposure to both sides of this one (in separate lineups, of course) because I think the possible outcomes for Bradley and the Yankees are both very extreme and could dictate the slate.

 

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