One more week until the fantasy playoffs begin for most making the Week 13 waiver-wire moves vitally important. Which players stepped forward in Week 12 and figure to do the same the rest of the way? Which players produced in Week 13 but you shouldn't be interested in buying? Ray Flowers sorts through the morass of players and offers his thoughts. 


*** Note: The number listed is not a dollar figure, instead it is a percentage. Therefore 20-25 means 20 to 25 percent of your budget. If you have $100 to spend go $20-25. If you have $1,000 to start you would be spending $200-250. 


QUARTERBACK

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Texans
Looks like the Ryan Mallett experience in Houston is already over. Reports suggest that he tore his right pectoral muscle in warmups before gutting out. Tests will be run Monday and it's sounding like his season could be at an end. The team could turn to rookie Tom Savage, but reports suggest it will be the bearded one back under center. Fitzpatrick has thrown for 11 scores against eight interceptions in nine starts this season and is nothing but a weekly dart throw who will always be ranked in the 20's at the QB position. 
Amount to Spend: 1-5 percent 

Josh McCown, Buccaneers
On paper it doesn't look that bad for McCown who threw for 341 yards an a touchdown in Week 12, but he also tossed two picks and completed just 52 percent of his 48 passes. McCown has averaged 310 passing yards in his last three games with five scores. He's also tossed four picks and remains a moderate option, even in good matchups, he's best served as a starter in 2 QB leagues. If you're starting him in 1QB leagues you had better be in a league with at least 14 teams.
Amount to Spend: 10-15 percent 

Zach Mettenberger, Titans
Mettenberger threw for 345 yards and two scores in Week 12. That will get anyone's attention. However, that's a very deceiving set of numbers. Mettenberger locked on to receivers, showed poor field vision and generally didn't impress. One of his touchdown passes went to Justin Hunter on a lucky play (the ball was tipped), while the other was late in the 4th quarter in garbage time to Dexter McCluster when no one was even in the seats to watch the score. A heavy footed rookie against the pass rush of the Texans - the Titans matchup in Week 13 - you don't think that's a recipe for success, do you? 
Amount to Spend: 7-10 percent 

RUNNING BACK

LeGarrette Blount, Patriots
Jonas Gray, from 200-yards and four scores, to the bench. He didn't play a single snap in Week 12 after missing practice because his alarm didn't wake him up. So is life with the Patriots' backfield. Therefore I'm calling you a moron if you spend big to add Blount this week. I know he carried the ball 12 times for 78 yards with two scores, but can you trust him to get 10 touches next week? Hell no. Can you trust him to be the goaline back? Of course you can't. Have to think that Gray sees the field, at least a bit, and it's pretty damn impossible to think that Blount can turn 17 snaps into this much production yet again (Shane Vereen had 62 snaps in Week 12). Add Blount sure, but trust him to start? Uh no.
Amount to Spend: 20-25 percent 

Dan Herron, Colts
Any guy named "Boom" is good with me. Personally I added Herron last week in my 16 team dynasty league, but after Week 12 he needs to be owned not just in 16 team league, but 14 teamers, 12 teamers, and maybe even 10 teamers. Seriously. Trent Richardson scored in Week 12 but he only gained 43 yards on his 13 carries. Herron meanwhile carried the ball 12 times for 65 yards, and he also caught five passes for 31 yards. Heron lost two fumbles, about the only negative, though potentially a huge one (the staff showed confidence in him continuing to give him the rock). With TRich just not - N O T - getting it done, Herron could end up being a weekly play in an elite offense. 
Amount to Spend: 25-30 percent 

Latavius Murray, Raiders
Murray ran for 112 yards and two scores against the Chiefs. He looked stupendous. Period. However, he suffered a concussion and his effort was predicated on two plays. Repeat, two plays. The Raiders still stink offensively. They still are last in football in rushing yards. They still can't pass. They don't score points. Add Murray but don't fall into the trap that everyone seems to be with Murray. Great talent, but the rest is dicey stuff.
Amount to Spend: 15-20 percent 

Ben Tate/Joe Banyard, Vikings
Jerick McKinnon is the lead dog. Just the way it is. He carried the ball 15 times for 54 yards and caught three balls for nine yards Sunday. There was no Matt Asiata (back), but no Tate either as he just wasn't with the team long enough to get up to speed. That changes in Week 13. Tate certainly could be used as a goaline back in the next contest, he's way more talented than Asiata, but Tate shouldn't be viewed as someone who is gonna take over in the backfield - it's still McKinnon in the lead. As for Banyard, he ran five times for 26 times and he also caught three balls for 19 yards. More of a supporting player than anything, and not worth a look with Tate ready to emerge. 
Amount to Spend on Banyard: 1-3 percent 
Amount to Spend on Tate: 15-20 percent 

WIDE RECEIVER

Stedman Bailey, Rams
Bailey has the best hands on the Rams club. It hasn't translated into much success this season. Things changed in Week 12 as he went off for a score on seven receptions and one score. He's not a fella who will stretch the field, and the Rams just don't push things through the air (Shaun Hill threw for 198 yards, a 7th straight game under 220 passing yards). You can add Bailey, but don't know how you can possibly trust in him enough to start him.
Amount to Spend: 10-12 percent 

Justin Hunter, Titans
He's likely been picked up and dropped repeatedly. He plays nearly every snap, has difference making talent, and should be a monster in the red zone. Unfortunately the term "consistent" is never used alongside the name of Hunter. Yes he caught four balls for 64 yards an a score in Week 12, but it wasn't anywhere near that impressive as his 40-yard touchdown came on a deflected pass. You buying it? I ain't. 
Amount to Spend: 10-15 percent 

Charles Johnson, Vikings
The Vikings can't pass. In five of six weeks Bridgewater hasn't thrown for 215 yards. He's also thrown for just six touchdowns in eight games. Just not getting anything special from the rookie. Is Johnson worthy of an add? Sure Charles scored and caught three balls for 52 yards, but that's the upside of expectations here. The Vikings aren't a high volume offense and that limits Johnson to, at best, being a WR3 option. Even that is really stretching. He's actually a 4/5 WR if we are being honest with each other, even after playing 67 of 69 snaps in Week 12. 
Amount to Spend: 12-15 percent 

Jarvis Landry, Dolphins
Mike Wallace is the Dolphin to own out wide. Still, with Ryan Tannehill performing quiet effectively, Landry is certainly on the hot list for anyone looking for a wideout boost. Landry has caught at least five passes in each of his last four outings and that includes four scores. Seriously. Caught seven balls for 50 yards in Week 12, his second seven reception outing in three weeks. Note that he isn't going to keep up this scoring pace, and despite five receptions in 4-straight games he's yet to hit 55 yards in an outing. A potential WR3 option in PPR setups, but not a high upside play despite the recent surge.
Amount to Spend: 15-20 percent 

Donte Moncrief, Colts
How about an elite talent. That's what Moncrief is. Consistent producer? He's light years from that. Donte did catch four balls for 39 yards against the Colts and finally, finally, may have passed Hakeem Nicks to become the third wideout in the pass happiest offense in the game. Don't know how you could have confidence in Donte, but there's a chance, a small chance, that Moncrief emerges as a potential play in the fantasy playoffs.
Amount to Spend: 5-10 percent 

Louis Murphy, Buccaneers
Murphy had a big game with six grabs for 113 yards against the Bears. Pick him up then, right? Nope. Murphy had 54 of those yards on just one play, and it was mostly all fourth quarter work (five of the eight targets). His previous four games Murphy caught five balls for 36 yards. Read that last sentence again. With Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson soaking up 25 targets a week and all the red zone looks you're better off letting someone else take a shot on Murphy.
Amount to Spend: 1-5 percent 

TIGHT END

Brent Celek, Eagles
Zach Ertz caught four balls for 30 yards in Week 12, but he also tweaks an oblique, though he did return to game action. He's still more talented than Celek, no doubt, but the Eagles' coaching staff loves Celek and his blocking. In Week 12 Celek also contributed five receptions for 48 yards. Still, he simply cannot be trusted to produce consistently in this offense. Do not trust Celek.
Amount to Spend: 5-10 percent 

Garrett Graham, Texans
Graham scored in Week 11, his first TD of the season. He then caught four balls for 41 yards in Week 12. Surging? Perhaps. With Ryan Fitzpatrick likely to be back under center it's possible dink and dunk returns to the Texans but Graham is nothing other than a dart throw option against the Titans who are a mid level defense against tight ends.  
Amount to Spend: 1-5 percent 

Cooper Helfet/Tony Moeaki, Seahawks
He caught a 20 yard score. He saw two targets. He's splitting time with Tony Moeaki. Oh yeah, Helfet also hurt his ankle in Week 12. Moeaki caught four balls for 34 yards in the outing. He's talented but he's always dealing with some physical issue. Move on, especially since a 225 passing outing for the Seahawks is Earth shattering. 
Amount to Spend on Helfet: 1-5 percent 
Amount to Spend on Moeaki: 1-5 percent 

Timothy Wright, Patriots
Look, you have to add Wright if he's on waivers. Have to. The guy has scored in 5-straight games. Five. He scored twice in Week 12. Twice. That's the good news. The bad news is that Rob Gronkowski obviously dominates looks to the tight end position, and then there is this. During his five game scoring run Wright has averaged, and read these numbers closely, 3.8 receptions and 37 yards  on just 4.2 targets. Is he really going to keep up that pace? No one who has ever played the game has been able to do that. Ever. Add, but he's still really hit or miss. If he doesn't get in the end zone... oh, and there were two weeks during his five week run in which he didn't catch a pass... so it's actually five weeks with scores in seven games, not five in five. I know, deceiving. 
Amount to Spend: 20-25 percent 


Listen to Ray Flowers' show Monday through Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear me  Sunday nights, 7-10 PM EDT.