Hot Takes: Aaron Rodgers Stinks

Aaron Rodgers is almost certainly going to the Hall of Fame. In Packers history his name is closing on those of Brett Favre and Bart Starr for the top of the heap in team history. He’s been a fantasy star for years.

Alas, we might be at a tipping point in his career as the data can no longer be ignored.

Last week Rodgers had a series of plays that included a terrible read on an interception, a fumble while in the pocket, and a missed pass that would have been a touchdown. This is emblematic of the struggles that we’ve seen from Rodgers for a while now, and make no mistake, he struggles are real. A few thoughts.

Eddie Lacy ranks first in elusive rating at Pro Football Focus (PFF) in all of football.

Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson have been positive contributors at PFF.

The Packers o-line is the best in football in pass blocking efficiency according to PFF.

That last point is particularly telling. The o-line has been really, really good and Rodgers hasn’t been able to beat defenses. The offensive line has allowed 27 pressures this season, 10 better than any other team in football (they have already had their Bye that helps). Still, the have the best pass blocking efficiency mark in football. Note that Rodgers was pressured on just 13 percent of his passes in Week 6 yet he still produced the second worst game grade of his career according to PFF.

Rodger’s is often holding on the to the ball too long and is eventually making the wrong decision after waiting all that time. After being an NFL quarterback for more than a decade it’s troubling that this is occurring. Mechanical changes can be made if need be, one would think, but if mentally something is amiss that’s a completely different issue.

Speaking of mechanics, one of the issues with Rodgers though is that he often sits back a bit on his back foot meaning he doesn’t drive over his front foot. In fact, if you watch him throw you will see many successful throws in which he lower body is in poor position, ultimately being overcome by his tremendous arm. However, more and more lately he’s starting to drift with his feet and simply not setting himself up with a solid foundation. His hips are behind his arm, which cause his back shoulder to dip a bit, and that’s leading to him throwing the ball high on many of his targets. In simple language – he’s not driving through the ball, he’s fading to his back foot. Whether this is feeling pressure that isn’t there or not, he’s simply not doing what successful quarterbacks need to do. He’s just off with his targets and his ball placement is erratic as a result of the wonky mechanics. We’re not used to seeing this from Aaron Rodgers.

THE NUMBERS

Rodgers is tied for 14^th in touchdown to interception ratio (2.5).

Rodgers is 20^th in QB Rating at 88.4.

Rodgers currently is 25^th in the league in completion percentage (60.2).

Rodgers is 26^th in the league with an average of 234 passing yards a game.

Rodgers is 27^th in yards per attempt (6.5).

That’s ugly folks.

Let’s do this. Let’s take the games he played last season and this year and then compare that level of performance to his career rates. Remember, per game is what we’re talking here.

Since the start of last season Rogers is throwing for fewer yards, fewer scores, completing a lower percentage of his passes and tossing just a bit more in the ole pick column. However, even the above table is a bit misleading. Don’t forget that Rodgers threw for one score and just 327 yards his first seven NFL games. Those games bring his career numbers down a bit. Moreover, those numbers listed above as “career” take into account his struggles since the start of last season. Let’s look at his numbers 2008-14, the happy zone of his career, and compare that to the last two seasons.

We have to admit that 21 games, over two seasons, is a pretty significant sample size. There is no debate that Rodgers has, statistically speaking, not been himself for nearly a year and a half now. When the numbers are augmented by the eye test, it’s hard to be very bullish with Rodgers.

It’s not all doom and gloom. His mechanics are off. He’s not putting his receivers in position to do things after the catch. He’s making bad decisions at times. He’s holding on to the ball too long at other times. He is struggling with the deep ball. According to PFF he’s is tied for last in football in deep ball adjusted completion percentage (27.3 percent). He’s tied with Blake Bortles for last in the league by the way.

Despite all of that Rodgers is still on pace to throw for 32 touchdown passes, just off his career long pace of 32.6 passing scores for 16 games. He has thrown four picks putting him on pace for his first double-digit interception season since 2010 while being on pace for 12.8 picks which if he hit 13 would tie a career worst. Both those numbers are fine. However, his completion percentage is down, as is his yards per attempt mark that is 6.6 since the start of last season, miles from the 7.9 mark he owns for his career. As a result, he’s on pace to throw for just 3,744 yards, a rather poor mark from a quarterback who fancies himself as an elite option. Truth is that Rodgers is way more Eli Manning or Andy Dalton right now than he is Aaron Rodgers.

Will things improve? History suggests they will. However, the last year and a half suggest that you keep your expectations in check as Rodgers may no longer be an elite option in the fantasy game.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).