Never Reach on a Rookie

People love drafting rookies. However, for every Odell Beckham Jr. out there you’re adding a Kevin White. In fact, it’s much worse than that. For every “hit” with a rookie there are massive numbers of failures. In this article we’ll take a look back at the last seven years. The data will conclusively show that depending on a rookie will end in tears.
 

THE STUDY

There are two simple qualifications to be included in this study of the last seven years of NFL rookies (2009-15).

(1) The player needs to have been drafted in first three rounds of the Entry Draft if he plays running back, wide receiver or tight end. Quarterbacks are deemed relevant no matter what round they were drafted in as a rookie.

(2) To qualify as a “hit,” i.e. a competent fantasy performer, a player must reach two of the following baseline marks that are listed for each position.

Quarterback: 3,000 yards, 20 passing touchdowns

Running back: 750 rushing yards, six rushing scores, 40 receptions

Wide Receiver: 750 receiving yards, six scores, 50 receptions

Tight End: 500 yards, four scores, 50 receptions

Realize that those numbers are by no means exciting and in many, if not most, instances you wouldn’t even be starting these “hits” on a week-to-week basis if you had a winning club.

A YEAR BY YEAR LOOK

2009 NFL ROOKIES

QB: Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford

RB: Donald Brown, Shonn Greene, LeSean McCoy, Chris Wells
WR: Kenny Britt, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jeremy Maclin, Mohamed Massaquoi, Hakeem Nicks, Brian Robiskie, Brandon Tate, Patrick Turner, Mike Wallace

TE: Jared Cook, Brandon Pettigrew, Richard Quinn

Total # of players: 21, five “hits”

QB Hits: 0/3

RB Hits: 1/4

WR Hits: 4/11

TE Hits: 0/3

2010 NFL ROOKIES

QB: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Jimmy Clausen

RB: Jahvid Best, Ryan Mathews, C.J. Spiller, Dexter McCluster, Toby Gerhart, Montario Hardesty, Ben Tate
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Arrelious Benn, Golden Tate, Brandon LaFell, Damien Williams, Eric Decker, Jordan Shipley, Emmanuel Sanders, Taylor Price, Andre Roberts, Armanti Edwards

TE: Jermaine Gresham, Rob Gronkowski, Ed Dickson, Tony Moeaki, Jimmy Graham

Total # of players: 28, two “hits”

QB Hits: 0/4

RB Hits: 1/7

WR Hits: 0/12

TE Hits: 1/5

2011 NFL ROOKIES

QB: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton

RB: Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, Shane Vereen, Mikel Leshoure, Daniel Thomas, Stevan Ridley, DeMarco Murray, Alex Green
WR: Jonathan Baldwin, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Titus Young, Greg Little, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb, Leonard Hankerson, Austin Pettis, Vincent Brown, Jerrel Jernigan

TE: Lance Kendricks, Kyle Rudolph, Rob Housler

Total # of players: 28, five “hits”

QB Hits: 2/6

RB Hits: 0/8

WR Hits: 3/11

TE Hits: 0/3

2012 NFL ROOKIES

QB: Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Brandon Weeden, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles
RB: Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Isaiah Pead, LaMichael James, Ronnie Hillman, Bernard Pierce
WR: Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, A.J. Jenkins, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, Rueben Randle, DeVier Posey, T.J. Graham, Mohamed Sanu, T.Y. Hilton

TE: Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Michael Egnew

Total # of players: 29, six “hits”
QB Hits: 3/6

RB Hits: 2/7

WR Hits: 1/13

TE Hits: 0/3

2013 NFL ROOKIES

QB: Mike Glennon, EJ Manuel, Geno Smith
RB: Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball, Christine Michael, Le'Veon Bell, Knile Davis
WR: Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Terrance Williams, Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, Markus Wheaton, Stedman Bailey, Aaron Dobson, Marquise Goodwin
TE: Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald
 

Total # of players: 26, five “hits”

QB Hits: 0/3

RB Hits: 3/6

WR Hits: 2/11
TE Hits: 0/6

2014 NFL ROOKIES

QB: Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel, Zach Mettenberger,
RB: Carlos Hyde, Tre Mason, Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill, Dri Archer, Devonta Freeman, Charles Sims, Jerick McKinnon, Terrance West, Ka’Deem Carey
WR: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Marqise Lee, Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Donte Moncrief, Davante Adams, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Paul Richardson, Cody Latimer, Josh Huff, John Brown
TE: Eric Ebron, Troy Niklas, Jace Amaro, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Richard Rodgers, Crockett Gillmore

Total # of players: 37, nine “hits” (greatly aided by amazing WR crop)

QB Hits: 1/4

RB Hits: 1/10

WR Hits: 7/15
TE Hits: 0/7

2015 NFL ROOKIES

QB: Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota
RB: Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, T.J. Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Matt Jones
WR: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Devin Smith, Dorial Green-Beckham, Devin Funchess, Tyler Lockett, Jaelen Strong, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, Ty Montgomery
TE: Clive Walford, Tyler Kroft, Jeff Heuerman

Total # of players: 27, four “hits”

QB Hits: 1/2

RB Hits: 1/8

WR Hits: 2/14
TE Hits: 0/3

THE SEVEN YEAR RESULTS: 2009-15

The last seven years, among rookies drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft (as well as all relevant quarterbacks), we reviewed the following number of players at each position.

QB: Twenty-eight
RB: Fifty
WR: Eighty-seven
TE: Thirty

How many of those players “hit” at each position? Remember that the bar we set was pretty low, at least in terms of their value in the fantasy game. In fact, the baseline numbers that were needed to be considered a “hit” likely would not have been enough to make that player an every week player in most leagues. Here is the table.

Of the 195 skill players that we reviewed the past seven years only 36 of them “hit – that's a rate of just 18.5 percent.

Less than one in five rookies “hits” even though we’ve set the bar so low that qualifying for a “hit” doesn’t even mean that player is a weekly starter in a 12-team fantasy league.

Moreover, note that seven of the 36 hits came at wide receiver in 2014. In no other season did more than four rookies “hit” at any position – wideouts in 2009 – and other than wide receiver in those two seasons mentioned campaigns no other position has posted more than “three” hits in a season.

Recent history says you shouldn't draft a rookie counting on him to be a weekly starter. If you do you'll likely end up being disappointed in the vast majority of cases. Given that fact, should you change your thoughts about rostering rookies in 2016? The most likely answer is yes.