After a hiatus due to the protracted baseball negotiations, the Mock Draft Army returned to the new baseball reality. What that is and what it will be is anybody’s guess which is why mocking is so important to prepare you for any upcoming fantasy baseball drafts. As I’m writing this, Tanaka got hit in the head with a line drive off of Stanton’s bat and Freddie Freeman tested positive for Covid and isn’t feeling well. This 2020 season and year is going to be one for the ages.
What has changed since our last mock back in early June? The universal DH for one. It was suspected back then, but now it’s official. Did any players increase their values enough to be drafted in a 12-team mixed league who weren’t beforehand or move up significantly if they were?
Yogi said “baseball is ninety percent mental and the other half is physical”. This year, the mental gyrations of trying to predict what is going to happen with pitching will cause 90% of fantasy players to cause 50% physical harm to their brains. How many starters are going to go more than 5 innings the first weeks of the season? How many middle relievers will outperform low end starters? Who will get wins? How many starters and relievers are the right mix for your roster?
All I can say is mock. Practice. Yes, we talkin’ about practice. Right AI? If you’re reading this and don’t participate with the Army, come join us! There isn’t much time left to get it right. Try out different strategies and see what works best for you. Let’s take a look at the two mocks from last week and see what the trends, if any, are.
Since we only had two mocks so far, I’m going to go through some of my picks from one of the drafts and discuss my thoughts on them. I’ll also look at what some others did to see what looked good...and didn’t.
In this mock I picked out of the 6 hole and was joined by Howard Bender and Ivar Anderson from Fantasy Alarm, Nate Marcum from Fantasy in Frames, and many of our MDA regulars who were excited to get back into it. I started off with Mookie Betts in the first round. Nothing new here. The usual suspects went 1-4, and Lindor went 5th. Gerrit Cole was a likely pick in the first 6 back in March, but he falls to 9 in this one. Jacob deGrom went at 16 as the second pitcher off the board which was a significant change from his ADP of 8 in the NFBC as of March 17th.
With only 3 pitchers off the board, I decided to go hitting again and took Rafael Devers hoping one of the starters I was hoping for would still be there in the 3rd. The strategy worked as Jack Flaherty fell to me at 3.06. His ADP was 23 in March and I got him 7 slots later. Looked like pitching was going to be pushed down the draft boards and it was. Only one pitcher was taken before my next turn and it was a reliever, Josh Hader .
What may be the only category that may be somewhat predictable, steals will be a commodity as it usually is. In the 4th I went with Whit Merrifield and bypassed pitching. Although my belief is that you still need two elite starters, the draft was telling me to wait. In the 5th I was sniped by Ivar who took Charlie Morton but was able to be happy adding Luis Castillo to the squad. I then added power with two of my favorites this year in José Abreu and Nelson Cruz . I think these types of veterans will be key to avoiding prolonged slumps during the short season.
Besides taking two elite starters, getting two sure fire closers is also important. Many teams will be using their best reliever in the fireman role, getting them into key game situations without regard to the inning. I took Taylor Rogers in the 8th and Rasiel Iglesias in the 10th. Both are on teams with deep bullpens and should not be needed much in that type of role. This is another place to try to get predictable stats as wins are going to be pure luck this year.
I filled out the rest of the staff with two more starters, Wheeler and Minor, and 5 more relievers, Hansel Robles , Scott Oberg , Seth Lugo , Ryan Pressly , and Dustin May. The difficulty with this is getting predictable innings and “guessing” who will be used each week in leagues that you have to set lineups once a week. This type of lineup is gold in leagues where you have daily lineups like on ESPN.
Some thoughts on other picks by the Army crew. Howard took Mike Trout at #3. There are doubts that he will play the entire season due the pending birth of his child. If he were to take two weeks off, or flat out decide not to return, this could be disastrous to those who take Trout. There is risk to taking Trout, so buyers beware.
Team Bob Loblaw took Luis Robert in the 8th round. Robert is a rookie and will most likely be hitting near the bottom of the order. Volume is what’s needed with the short season and his at bats may end up being limited. Yes, he has speed and could end up being valuable from that standpoint, but players like Marcell Ozuna , Nick Castellanos , and Michael Conforto still on the board there, I’d think about going in another direction.
Team Sin City Heat took Aroldis Chapman , James Paxton , Masahiro Tanaka , JA Happ, and Jordan Montgomery . They are favorites to win their division, so this type of stack may be a way to go. I’m just not that high on Tanaka and Happ, especially in the short season.
The next few weeks are going to be interesting. Tune into Fantasy Alarm for all you need to have a successful fantasy baseball season. We have a new URL for the Mock Draft Army sign up page www.rtsports.com/mock-draft-army-baseball . Be safe everyone and I’m always available to answer questions on Twitter @gasdoc_spit or via email at mockdraftarmyandy@gmail.com
Player News
Shane Baz allowed eight hits and six earned runs with two walks and three strikeouts over 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Phillies on Wednesday.
The Phillies were all over Baz in their third time around the order. They wound up scoring five runs during that fateful fourth inning which started with a walk, single, fielder’s choice, and safety squeeze before Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper had consecutive base hits to chase him from the game. All three of those batted balls were hit at least 100 mph and it felt like they were seeing him very clearly by that point. Turner himself had two batted balls over 100 mph, with the other being a home run. While Baz’s velocity was up, his command was off and he left far too many knuckle-curves in the middle of the zone. Baz now has an ugly 4.93 ERA after this poor start and he’ll have to get his command back before his next scheduled start against the Blue Jays.
Joe Ryan has been scratched from Thursday’s start against the Orioles due to illness.
It’ll be Bailey Ober taking the ball in his place. It’s a tough break for fantasy managers since Ryan is coming off a pair of stellar starts and was set to face an Orioles’ lineup that has scored three earned runs or fewer in four of their last five contests. Barring an unexpected development, Ryan should be cleared to take the ball at some point during a three-game series against the Giants, which gets underway on Friday night.
Hunter Greene (groin) will undergo an MRI on Thursday.
Reds manager Terry Francona told reporters that Greene felt a grab, not a pop, while warming up for the fourth inning of Wednesday’s start against the Braves, which led to his immediate removal out of an abundance of caution. The 25-year-old fantasy ace will undergo further evaluation and imaging to determine the severity of the issue, but it sounds like the Reds don’t believe it’s too serious. There’s an outside chance he’ll make his next start on Tuesday against the White Sox. There should be a definitive update on his status at some point in the coming days.
Dylan Cease was removed from Wednesday’s start against the Yankees with a right forearm cramp.
Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters afterwards that the team didn’t want to take any chances in the moment, which is why Cease was pulled for precautionary reasons. It sounds like there’s optimism the 29-year-old fantasy ace isn’t dealing with anything serious and that he’ll be able to make his next start on Tuesday against the Angels. There should be an additional update on his status in a couple days when he throws his usual bullpen session between starts.
Wilyer Abreu went 3-for-4 with two home runs, a double, three RBI, and two runs scored in a 6-4 victory over the Rangers on Wednesday.
Not only was Abreu productive, but he was also clutch. His first long ball tied this game at two. Then, his run-scoring double tied it at three and nearly gave his Red Sox the lead before Kristian Campbell was thrown out at home. His eighth inning home run was less dramatic, just adding insurance to the lead. A funny note though, this was the third multi-homer game of Abreu’s career and all three have come against the Rangers. Nevertheless, his strong start has blended nicely into a tremendous season and the Red Sox would be hard-pressed to take his .980 OPS out of the lineup any time soon.
Aroldis Chapman allowed a hit, a run, and a walk with a strikeout to nail down the save against the Rangers on Wednesday.
It’s never easy for Chapman who allowed a home run to Josh Jung and then let Corey Seager come to the plate as the tying run, but he managed to get the job done. He threw four pitches harder than 102 mph in this outing too, including a season-best 103.8 mph on his sinker. At times, he seems ageless and has a firm hold on closer duties in Boston.