Mock Draft Army ADP Trend Report: August 18

As we approach Week 1 of the NFL regular season, mock drafts are heating up more than ever. The Army is still running anywhere from 5-to-7 mock drafts each week and will continue to do so right up until the season opens. We’ve added 20-round PPR mocks with a third-round reversal this week, so for those of you prepping for your NFFC drafts, this might be helpful to you. If you would like to get involved, just send me an email (mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com) and I’ll add you to the schedule distribution list.

Now let’s get to the meat and potatoes here and look at some of the ADP risers and faller to which you may want to pay attention. We’ll also take a look at some of the more notable new faces who have been recently drafted as well.

Risers

Arian Foster, RB MIA (+18.3%) – Well it was just a matter of time before the feeding frenzy started. All too many people are putting RB2 faith into Foster and while he very well could be one, the risk is far too great for me to be looking at him in the fourth and fifth round which is where he’s now going in drafts. Again, don’t be fooled by the ADP. Follow the increase. His current ADP is at 103.2, but remember, that’s the average of 50-odd drafts and he wasn’t even drafted in some of the early ones. I’m not totally adverse to taking Foster if that’s what the draft dictates, but for me, the problem is that you have to handcuff him to both Jay Ajayi AND Kenyan Drake because no one knows which of those two will step up.

Josh Ferguson, RB IND (+15.2%) – Handcuff central here with Ferguson who, again, is getting plenty of attention but not doing much to warrant it just yet. He had three yards on eight carries in the Colts’ first preseason game and needs to do more to stand out. The team already has enough tomato cans in Jordan Todman and Robert Turbin. Ferguson needs a big showing over the next two weeks to justify his heavy rise in ADP. I still like him better than the other two, but it’s not me he has to impress. It’s the Indy coaches.

Bruce Ellington, WR SF (+13.6%) – Personally, I won’t touch anyone on San Francisco other than Carlos Hyde. With Blaine Gabbert as the starter and Colin Kaepernick lying in wait, none of the receivers do much for me. Yup. Even Torrey Smith. Ellington seems to be generating some buzz and might be the perfect garbage time option as the 49ers will likely play from behind most of the season, but I’d rather try a youngster with upside and a much better quarterback.

Phillip Dorsett, WR IND (+12.9%) – Speaking of which, Dorsett is starting to generate more buzz here in the offseason and could end up with some decent target numbers. Probably not to start him each week, but enough to warrant a roster spot as a potential fill-in for bye weeks. Many believe the Colts are looking to throw the ball 4-50 times per game, so eventually Dorsett is going to see some extra looks his way.

Josh Gordon, WR CLE (+10.5%) – Oh boy! Grab the torches and pitchforks, people. It’s time to vilify everyone who is taking Gordon in the 5^th/6^th round in drafts. What’s up with this? Why do people suddenly believe that he will stay out of trouble? Why do people ignore the four-game suspension? Why do people ignore the fact that he’s basically been out of football for almost two years and is going to be…well….rusty is a nice way to put it. I took him high (pun intended) in the SiriusXM Host League to prove a point, was criticized by a number of pundits on a variety of shows and yet, people are still drafting him higher than he should be. SMH, people. SMH.

Fallers

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB NYJ (-18.7%) – Now I know we all say to wait on quarterbacks, but something tells me, that Fitzpatrick’s ADP is more a product of the preseason rankings in the draft room. He was unsigned for so long that many sites had him pretty far down the list and those doing the mocks seemingly forgot about him. Me? I’ll try my hand with Fitzpatrick before I roll with anyone like RG3, Marcus Mariota or even Ryan Tannehill. Fitz might not be the be all, end all at the position, but with elite talent like Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, I’d be more than happy to take him late.

Jay Ajayi, RB MIA (-18.1%) – The early injury, the preseason hype of Drake and the fact that the Fins were more interested in seeing what Isaiah Pead and Daniel Thomas were up to in the first preseason game all seem to be damaging Ajayi’s draft value. Well, that and the fact that he’ll play behind Foster as well. If he were the clear-cut No. 2 on the team, I think his ADP would start to climb back up, but the problem now is trusting the investment. You know Foster will get hurt but you don’t know just yet who will replace him.

Ladarius Green, TE PIT (-16.7%) – This is a real interesting case here. There’s the ankle injury and there’s the headaches. Now the ankle injury is obviously something real, but not all that serious. The headaches, though, are a different story. Is he concussed? And if so, why is he on the field. Are we looking at a concussion not really showing up in tests or are we looking at another Percy Harvin situation? Green was on the field practicing Tuesday, but reports said that he was just doing some running and cutting exercises on the side and walked off gingerly. Was it the ankle or the headaches? Still, we don’t know. What we do know is that he is rightfully dropping in drafts and he is most definitely not the next Heath Miller.

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR PHI (-13.8%) – Tough to say that DGB was a disappointment last season, but obviously the Titans had lost interest in the young wideout given that they just dealt him to the Eagles earlier this week. From a fantasy standpoint, it would seem to be somewhat of a mild downgrade for now. Marcus Mariota is a year wiser and the Titans system got a nice boost in the ground game which usually opens things up more for the passing game. Now he has to go to Philly, learn a new system, outplay some mediocre receivers to earn snaps and who knows who will be throwing him the ball come Week 5. Impossible? No. Not at all. But fantasy owners aren’t sold on the move just yet and as of now, owners are losing interest. Perhaps the fact that he suited up Thursday when he wasn’t supposed to says something about his current mental make-up. Perhaps, he’s tabled the attitude a bit and just plays ball. While his ADP is falling, he could prove to be a late-round bargain, so keep tracking his preseason and look for him as your fifth or sixth receiver for now.

Karlos Williams, RB BUF (-13.0%) – I believe it was Dean Wormer who once said, Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.” Truer words have not been spoken and maybe someone should needlepoint that and hang it in Williams’ locker. A four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy is how Williams will open the 2016 season, but to add insult to injury, he came in like a fat load when camp opened. The team is disappointed but obviously not ready to give up just yet. Fantasy owners will have to hedge their bets right now though as we need to see him actually do something positive before we start drafting him with any remote confidence.

New Faces

Terrance West, RB BAL (ADP: 238.0) – Whether you believe the hype or not, West’s name is now out there and folks who have a piece of the Baltimore backfield are now looking to add West for fear that he will now be the go-to guy over Kenneth Dixon, Javorius Allen and possibly even Justin Forsett. Pewrsonally, I don’t buy it at all, but some schnook in your league does. Let him have him.

Cameron Brate, TE TB (ADP:249.0) – The word is out and so is Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Or is he? Brate has jumped over ASJ on the team’s depth chart and has been taking the majority of first-team reps in practice. However, ASJ has been garnering a little more attention lately, so while Brate is receiving some face time with the public, he’s still not someone to use as more than anything but a bye-week fill-in.

Jesse James, TE PIT (ADP: 254.9) – With Ladarius Green nursing an ankle issue while also dealing with headaches and potentially lingering concussion symptoms, James seems to be the heir apparent for right now. Some believe that Green will be out for an extended period of time which gives James some added value, but he’s not shooting up the ADP charts just yet. Maybe it’s because people are still expecting Green to be fine, or maybe it’s because of Xavier Grimble.

Geremy Davis, WR NYG (ADP: 255.1) – While Victor Cruz continues to struggle in his return to the Giants, many are looking at Davis as a potential No. 3 option. A current hamstring issue could be trouble in his battle with Dwayne Harris, but the team seems confident that he will be just fine and find his way onto the 53-man roster.

Reggie Bush, RB BUF (ADP: 258.2) – With Karlos Williams suspended for the first four games, the Bills are in obvious need of a No. 2 for the short term. They have Mike Gillislee, but they’re also looking for a potentially resurgent Bush to help out on passing downs while also chipping in on the return game. If the knee holds up, there could be some short-term value here.

Mock Draft Army ADP

As always, if you would like a copy of this ADP on a sortable, color-coordinated Excel spreadsheet, just email me at mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com.