Prior to Thanksgiving, the Padres and Brewers matched up on a deal moving post-hype prospects for each other along with a starting pitcher. Milwaukee receives Luis Urías and Eric Lauer casting doubt on Orlando Arcia ’s role with the team moving forward as the non-tender date creeps up on teams. San Diego not only receive Trent Grisham and Kyle Davies, they also agreed to a four-year contract with reliever Drew Pomeranz adding to their bullpen depth.
Fantasy owners will await what position Urias ends up at, but he’s not going to replace Keston Hiura at second base:
For those who asked about possible position change for Keston Hiura, #Brewers GM David Stearns said, "We still view Keston as our second baseman.”
— Tom (@Haudricourt) November 27, 2019
Milwaukee gets salary relief with team control on Lauer while shedding Davies providing more flexibility to spend this winter. San Diego seems to be on the precipice of more deals while building a bullpen akin the Yankees and Braves. Here’s the fantasy fallout of these moves.
Urias and Lauer to the Brew Crew
While fantasy owners reap the rewards of Juan Soto , sometimes it takes other players time to reach their peak. Luis Urías does not possess the same upside as Soto, but could provide some pop in the middle infield. Especially given his new hitting environment in Miller Park. Urias will not turn 23 until June and launched 19 home runs in only 73 Triple-A games in 2019. Of course, he’s yet to handle major league pitching with a career .221/.318/.331 slash over 302 plate appearances with San Diego.
For fantasy, owners will need to discern if Urias can translate his .285 isolated power and discipline from Triple-A going forward in his career. Knowing the Pacific Coast League inflates offense, a simple migration of Urias’ six percent more fly balls in the minors last year compared to the majors and trading some ground balls for line drives would be a start. Here’s a look at his spray chart from the last two years in the minors courtesy of MLBfarm.com:
Miller Park does favor left-handed hitters, as Christian Yelich learned quickly and adjusted for. But, for Urias, his heatmap displays he could transition well to Milwaukee:
Using the middle of the field in his approach, my interest lies in the upper blob in right field. Urias could pick up a couple of home runs driving the ball to the opposite field in Milwaukee if he takes over at shortstop this year. Since Steamer cannot really account for a projection of him yet, it’s going to be beneficial to exhibit some patience with Urias. However, do not forget him as a late round flier or stash with upside. Banking on a nice second half in 2020 if things galvanize for Urias.
Eric Lauer does not necessarily move the needle in fantasy but he will absorb Davies innings for Milwaukee at a reduced cost. Lauer won eight of his 18 decisions last season with a 4.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. This will not play well in Milwaukee but it’s worth nothing Lauer owned a 3.08 ERA in home games last year and his road ERA minus three starts in Coors sits at 4.31. In those three Coors starts, Lauer yielded 17 earned runs in only eight innings of work. But, heed his 39.9 ground ball rate from 2019 versus 38.1 fly ball percentage. Lauer will walk a fine line and sets up as a league only option or a streamer in fantasy for 2020. Yes, his 138 strikeouts in only 149.2 innings can be intriguing, but the WHIP and 4.77 xFIP should not be overlooked.
Grisham and Davies to the Padres, plus Pomeranz
One year removed from feeling like the Padres owned a logjam at outfield, here we go again. Trent Grisham joins the roster armed with a career 37.6 on-base percentage in the minors. He appeared in 51 games with the Brewers last season scoring 24 runs with six home runs, 24 RBI, one stolen base and a .231/.328/.410 slash line. Between Double and Triple-A, Grisham hit a combined .300/.407.603 with 71 runs, 26 home runs and 12 steals in 97 games in the minors.
Fantasy owners will hope Grisham can translate his plate discipline to the majors along with his 74.6 stolen base success rate (91-for-122 in stolen base attempts in the minors) to the Padres. During Grisham’s 2019 minor league plate appearances, he accrued 67 walks versus 72 strikeouts. However, with the Brewers, his strikeout percentage jumped to 26.2 percent. Grisham did need time to adjust when moving up a level from High-A to Double-A in 2018 and he rebounded in 2019 when repeating the level, so there’s hope for Grisham moving forward.
Here’s Grisham’s spray chart from the last two years in the minors thanks to MLBfarm.com:
Noting he’s a left-handed hitter, here’s Grisham’s heat map as well:
How many at-bats and where he hits in the Padres lineup will determine his potential for 2020. Presently, Grisham’s penciled in to hit second versus right-handed pitchers and Wil Myers slotted to platoon with him. There’s potential for a 15 home run and 15 stolen base season with 400 plus at-bats but a platoon caps his upside. Perhaps a poor man’s Jesse Winker with a lower average.
Kyle Davies recorded a 10-7 record last season with a 102:51 K:BB over 159.2 innings with a 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 5.20 xFIP. Fantasy owners will raise their eyebrows regarding his xFIP which could cause some damage down the road. Avoiding Davies in any starts in Coors makes sense but as a home stream and when pitching in San Francisco, he will be serviceable.
In 2019, Davies owned a 4.26 ERA in home games at Miller Park with a 1.27 WHIP and a 5.48 xFIP whereas he finished with a 2.94 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and 4.95 xFIP on the road. Too much traffic on the bases can hurt Davies, hence his struggles with xFIP as a predictor.
With Urias no longer a part of the depth chart, a spring battle could emerge between Esteban Quiroz and Ty France at second base or a potential platoon:
Also, 27 year old LHB 2B Esteban Quiroz raked for the Padres at AAA last year, slashing .271/.384/.539 with 19 HR in 89 games in El Paso. And with RHB Ty France having seen significant action at 2B last season, an interesting platoon option also presents itself.
— Ben Friedl (@ben_friedl) November 27, 2019
Not to be overlooked, the Padres continue to piece together a strong bullpen. Adding Drew Pomeranz to high leverage will benefit Kirby Yates and allow Andres Muñoz to pitch the seventh or eighth inning depending on match-ups:
Congratulations to @DrewPomeranz on signing with the #Padres
— CAA Baseball (@CAA_Baseball) November 28, 2019
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As a reliever in 2019, #BullpenPom had a 1.88 ERA, 15.7 SO/9 and .505 OPS allowed while striking out 46.4% of batters faced pic.twitter.com/cfHgPCGhiW
It’s a small sample, but Pomeranz proved dominant in relief last year riding the success of his increased fastball velocity and bite on his curve to success. In an effort to avoid overkill, if interested in reading about Pomeranz, he’s covered in this end of the year piece highlighting the Relief Pitcher Metric developed on Fantasy Alarm by Matt Selz and myself.
Be sure to stay with Fantasy Alarm across all formats to remain ahead of the competition.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
MLBfarm.com
MiLB.com
RosterResource.com
Player News
Kyren Paris hit a two-run homer in Wednesday’s win for the Angels over the Blue Jays.
That’s the first homer for Paris since April 9 when he went deep twice against Tampa Bay and caused everyone to lose all sense of rational thought. The 23-year-old did also single and walk to improve his on-base percentage to .311,, while the homer bumps his slugging mark to .378. There is long-term upside in Paris with flashes that suggest he can be a fantasy option. Fantasy managers should still absolutely looking elsewhere for options up the middle.
Jorge Soler hit a three-run double in the bottom of the ninth to give the Angels a 5-4 win over the Blue Jays on Wednesday.
Trent Grisham went 1-for-1 with a game-tying two-run home run in the eighth inning of a 4-3 win over the Padres on Wednesday.
While the Yankees won this game on a walk-off in the 10th inning, Grisham’s game-tying home run in the eighth was the biggest moment. He came on as a pinch-hitter for Jorbit Vibas against the usually stout Jason Adam and smashed a two-strike changeup into the right field seats. This clutch shot will only continue to push Grisham’s playing time in the right direction after he just started eight of the last 10 games, hit either first or second in each, and already has 10 homers in 31 games played this season.
Jeff Hoffman blew a save and picked up a loss Wednesday against the Angels.
Devin Williams struck out three batters with one walk and hit another in a scoreless 10th inning to earn the win against the Padres on Wednesday.
The Yankees entrusted Williams with the all important 10th inning and the inherited ghost runner on second base after their dramatic comeback. While he loaded the bases and had some tense moments, he left the inning unscathed and opened the door for them to win it right after. It should be noted that Luke Weaver came on for what were the most important outs of this game at the time, after Ian Hamilton walked two to begin the eighth inning and Weaver allowed both of those inherited runners to score. He was called upon as the fireman though and will likely get the next save opportunity. Still, this was a massive step in the right direction for Williams.
Max Fried allowed five hits and one run with no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Wednesday.
Fried’s excellent season continued as he set down the Padres easily besides for a mammoth solo home run by Jackson Merrill. It was no matter though, as they rarely threatened otherwise and Fried continued to find his strikeout stuff. This was his fourth outing of the year with at least seven strikeouts, a mark he only hit 10 times last season in 29 starts. Fried with a strikeout rate that’s better than league average – which is where he’s at right now – is a clear top-10 pitcher in fantasy baseball. He’s set for a two-start week coming up against the Mariners and Mets.