Amidst the throes of March Madness, the last full weekend of fantasy baseball drafts will ensue. Since a trip through the tiers for closers published already, check out the link here (https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/gjewett/52813/mlb-bullpen-report-march-9/), targets and players to avoid overpaying on appear throughout the article. Borrowing a theme from the NCAA, this week’s bullpen report will focus on eight pitchers without elite status this year in drafts but could return nice dividends if things break the right way for them. With a nine seed facing an 11 seed for a final four berth this weekend, anything’s possible. Same goes for the ever volatile bullpens in baseball.
So if drafting this weekend or in the days leading up to the start of baseball next week, here’s eight names to hone in on during the later parts of the draft who could outperform their present average draft position.
Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers
After taking over the role of closer following the trade of Justin Wilson to the Cubs, Shane Greene actually pitched well down the stretch for Detroit. Over his last 21 appearances, Greene recorded a 2.49 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 21.2 innings for nine saves. For the season, Greene transitioned well to the bullpen with four wins in 67.2 innings, a 2.66 ERA but a 3.79 bbFIP due to a fortuitous 84.2 left-on-base percentage (strand rate).
There should be a bit of regression in the year ahead and with the Tigers in the middle of a rebuild, Greene could be traded at mid-season. However, until then it’s his job with very little competition. So far this spring, Greene’s looking strong with 10 strikeouts against two walks versus 21 total batters faced for a 47.6 strikeout percentage. Carrying this over to the regular season would be Craig Kimbrel territory from last year, but if Greene can increase his strikeout totals, it would help mitigate the rise in ERA he’s due to incur. Even if he only holds the job through July, cashing in on 15 saves proves beneficial at his present cost in drafts.
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Over the last three seasons, no reliever’s generated more ground balls (77.7 percent) or recorded a lower ERA- (38) than Zach Britton. Last year, he was an abomination. But, he pitched through injury and suffered another one in the off-season. However, it could be a blessing in disguise with Britton working his way back from an Achilles injury. He’s out of his walking boot and ahead of his projected rehab for the Orioles.
Many will speculate on Brad Brach but a recent announcement suggests he’s in the mix to get saves along with Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens. Baltimore recently signed Alex Cobb, signaling they will try to compete during Manny Machado’s potential last season with the team before a much needed rebuild of their own.
Reading between the lines, why else would the team not fully turn to Brach as the closer unless they do not want to cement him in the role while Britton works his way back to the ninth inning? It’s much easier to transition their former All-Star to the closer role in a fluid situation rather than sparking controversy. This means Britton’s a very intriguing gamble at his present average draft position with a 1.59 ERA, 2.29 FIP and 1.05 WHIP the last three years in 170 innings of work. It’s a leap of faith, but like any reliever, if he does not return to glory, drop him for the next waiver flavor.
Hunter Strickland, San Francisco Giants
Although one hopes Mark Melancon can silence his critics and make it through the season unscathed by injury, there’s already doubt with his “dead arm” in spring training. No one want to roster Sam Dyson. Sure Tony Watson could return to his glory days as a closer like his time in Pittsburgh. Personally, not sold on it. It feels like fantasy’s waited for Hunter Strickland to finally take a step forward and breakthrough even though he’s yet to do it.
Strickland spent the off-season working with John Smoltz, tinkering with his slider. So far, Strickland’s whiffed six batters in 5.1 innings this spring against one walk with no earned runs allowed and a minuscule 0.375 WHIP. Understanding it’s the spring, take this with a grain of salt, but scouts say Strickland’s slider looks more slurvy. Last year, the slider induced a whiff per swing percentage of 35.61 and a .243 batting average against. If Strickland improves upon it to offset his sometimes too straight fastball, he could be on the precipice of a career year. If Melancon lands on the disabled list, this may be the year Strickland accrues double digit saves, just when everyone gives up on him. Stay tuned.
Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why Tyler Glasnow? Well, why not. Last year at this time, anyone suggesting to pick up Chad Green would receive the same type of response. Green turned in a dominant performance last year as a key cog in the Yankees bullpen racking up 103 strikeouts (he did make one start) in 69 innings pitched. While the Pirates will prefer to deploy Glasnow as a starter in the future, he should start the season in their bullpen.
After ditching his windup last year, the six foot eight inch Glasnow found a new level of production at Triple-A striking out 140 in only 93.1 innings with a 1.93 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. This equates to a 38.5 strikeout percentage as a starter with a 8.8 percent walk rate. He’s never been able to replicate this type of dominance in the majors, but with time to work in relief and build confidence, Glasnow could finally breakout.
During his last spring appearance, Glasnow worked 4.2 innings giving up one earned run on five hits with six strikeouts and two walks against the Red Sox. On the surface his 8.03 ERA and 1.784 WHIP do not seem appealing. But, take a look at his career velocity chart from Brooks Baseball:
It takes more than lighting up a radar gun to succeed in the majors, but Glasnow’s past pedigree as a prospect should show up. Plus, according to Statcast, Glasnow gets an extra two MPH on his velocity due to his tremendous extension benefiting from his height. If his stuff finally translates in PIttsburgh, he could be a steal. There will be ratio risk, but as a draft and stash, Glasnow makes for a perfect dart throw. Especially in head-to-head formats who lost Green, Yusmeiro Petit and others with starting pitcher eligibility in the bullpen.
Keone Kela, Texas Rangers
Not going to spend too much time on Keone Kela since he’s been profiled once before in our bullpen reports. However, Texas wants him to win the closer job. First, reports suggest Alex Claudio will serve the team best as the “extinguisher” like Andrew Miller being able to appear in multiple innings to bridge the gap to the later innings. This opens the door for Kela who owns the arsenal to succeed, he’s never been healthy or mature enough to take over the ninth inning.
In case one’s skeptical, here’s the link to the past report (https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/gjewett/52382/mlb-bullpen-report-identifying-new-closers/) which delves into Kela with detail. He’s worth the flier. At his present average draft position, it’s a no lose situation. If Kela fails or succumbs to another injury, he’s waivers fodder. But if he breaks out, then he transitions to an absolute steal.
Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres
Before anyone reads too much into this, Brad Hand’s the best closer on this team. However, reports suggest from time to time, the team will deploy Hand in the highest leverage situation in order to win a game which means he could not be used in the ninth inning. If this happens, it puts Kirby Yates in line to vulture a few saves this year. In deeper or league only formats, suddenly Yates becomes more interesting. He did strikeout 88 in only 56.2 innings of work last year with one save and 20 holds. Yates did finish with an ERA of 3.97, but his bbFIP of 3.46 suggests he’s better than he showed.
Plus, Yates cratered in August with an inflated walk rate which affected his overall numbers. In July, he registered a 0.38 WHIP and during the last month of the year, a 0.70 WHIP. It’s easy to overlook him late in drafts, but Yates change produced a whiff per swing rate of 42.31 percent along with 41.32 percent with the slider. Relievers with two pitches which can induce swings and misses 40 percent of the time merit attention. Those who ignore Yates in deep leagues where every save matters will be disappointed.
Carson Smith, Boston Red Sox
Harkening back to 2015, Carson Smtih looked to be the most dominant pitcher in the Mariners bullpen. He finished the season with 92 strikeouts in 70 innings, a 2.31 ERA, 1.87 bbFIP and 1.01 WHIP. His slider generated a 50.75 whiff per swing percentage. But, the slider also wore on his elbow limiting his productivity the last two seasons.
Smith appears to be healthy and in eight innings this spring, he’s struck out 11 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. It may take some time for him to get all the way back to his 2015 self, but if anything happened to Craig Kimbrel or if he needs a day off, Smith could get the save chance. There’s no guarantees with closers, but a bounce back by Smith could mean strong ratios in deep leagues and some saves at pennies on the dollar in drafts.
Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers
Savvy fantasy owners can take Shane Greene highlighted above, then draft and stash his potential fill-in. Last year at this time, many in the fantasy community coronated Joe Jimenez as the Tigers “closer of the future”. He flamed out. Jimenez looked overmatched with Detroit and finished with a 12.32 ERA in 19 major league innings last season. No bueno.
Luckily, he’s still only 23 years old, so there’s time for him to emerge as a high leverage option in Detroit. Also, he can cut his teeth in the seventh inning this year in order to gain confidence. Jimenez seems to excel in Triple-A with a 1.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 40.2 innings during two different seasons at the level. He struck out 52 against 16 walks with his slider and fastball combination.
This spring, Jimenez has made eight appearances working an inning in each and racking up 13 strikeouts. Of course, he’s also handed out five free passes and seven hits. Jimenez needs to limit traffic on the bases to succeed in Detroit and the stuff’s within his arsenal. Once it all comes together, Jimenez will be a successful closer. If it happens in the second half after the trade deadline, do not be surprised.
It’s going to be a wild season as always with bullpens, so be sure to check back all season for all the latest closer news on Fantasy Alarm. Draft wisely my friends.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
Baseball-Reference.com
MiLB.com
BrooksBaseball.net
xSTATS.org