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We’ve examined Weighted On-Base Average minus Expected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA-xwOBA) for hitters previously. It works well for pitchers also. Someone with a higher xwOBA than wOBA indicates a pitcher who’s been lucky with balls in play. A higher wOBA means they’ve had poor luck. We’re already starting to see streaks change in both directions. Keep an eye on discounts available and potential pitfalls coming.
Here are the pitchers due for some positive regression if they continue pitching the same way (100 PA min).
- Zach Eflin is an interesting name to see at the top of this leaderboard. He’s certainly had ups and downs in 2020. His stuff is good. The results are just sporadic. For me, he’s a streamer/DFS option in the right match up. Not a hold.
- The numbers under the hood continue to check out for Luis Castillo . Regression is coming at some point. Maybe kick the tires on whoever has him rostered in your league with season-long trade deadlines approaching.
- I wonder if Josh Lindblom is a road warrior for our purposes. Miller Park is rather unfriendly to pitchers. Keep an eye on him at Detroit next week if anyone dropped him impatiently.
- We aren’t getting the Gerrit Cole we expected so far. The offspeed stuff is still nasty and the strikeouts are there. His fastball isn’t getting by hitters at the moment, however, with a 25.2% 2020 Whiff% (down from 2019’s 37.6%). Plenty have pointed out his 2019 started with some bumps, as well. Only he has far less time to turn it around.
The luckier pitchers with a higher xwOBA (100 PA min).
- The other shoe has started to fall for guys like Brad Keller and Alex Cobb . Their respective teams will need to keep running them out there and the numbers will catch up to them.
- A groundball machine like Dallas Keuchel will always end up on this list when he’s at his best. Just know things could go sideways for him if he can’t keep the ball in the infield.
- Chad Kuhl is someone who we should be monitoring. He has a good slider and can bring some heat with the fastball. His strikeouts have dipped lately. Perhaps aggressive contact can help explain both. If the Ks come back while maintaining the ratios, he deserves consideration.
- After ditching his very hittable four-seamer, Corbin Burnes is enjoying a mini breakout. He replaced it with a sinker and a cutter. It may be a matter of time before hitters and scouts catch up to him. That’s been a challenge with COVID restrictions but should become easier as the season goes.
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.