In an effort to discern and evaluate how relievers fare in the highest leverage moments, Matt Selz and I collaborated on an algorithm using the leverage metrics featured on Fangraphs within an equation using strikeouts, walks and overall performance to rate them on a weekly basis. Hence, this article introduces a new way for the Fantasy Alarm family to evaluate relievers and know who to potentially speculate upon for saves or to use as pitchers to protect precious ratio statistics.

Within the rating system, the shutdown and meltdown numbers become factors for relievers from the win probability numbers on Fangraphs:

 

Then, Matt also incorporated the Wpa (total win probability) amassed in all outings during the season, the RE24 which measures run prevention and assigns a value to every base runners-out state where 24 exist and in which a higher value means they have been better at not allowing runners to score. Plus, it also uses WPA/pLi which accounts for each at-bat affecting win probability divided by the leverage of the situation. More clean innings in this metric lead to a higher number and more effective a reliever proves to be.

With all of this encapsulated in a formula, the Reliever Efficiency Rate spawned. In order to measure its effectiveness, Matt ran 2018’s data among qualified relievers with no surprises at the top of the ranking with Blake Treinen and Edwin Díaz leading the way. There’s no way to know if the metric will be predictive on a season-to-season basis, but as it evolves weekly, it holds up within a season to this point. In an effort to let it marinate, Fantasy Alarm did not release it until this week. Here’s a glimpse of what it looks like:

RankNameTeamWPARE24pLIWPA/LISDMDGIPEff. Rate
1Ryan Pressly Astros1.6212.211.331.291433031.11.434
2Brad Hand Indians1.9215.921.681.151723130.21.405
3Josh Hader Brewers2.5413.132.081.181742735.21.360
4Kirby Yates Padres2.8511.242.381.0923230301.352
5Roberto Osuna Astros1.778.611.951.181323030.11.285
6John Gant Cardinals1.759.841.381.1115231381.219
7Brandon Workman Red Sox0.89.031.481.131443633.21.206
8Giovanny Gallegos Cardinals0.5411.280.441.14522631.21.182
9Scott Oberg Rockies1.9412.151.711.031442932.11.161
10Will Smith Giants2.86.471.510.952112928.21.108
11Brandon Kintzler Cubs1.0510.031.051.0111331311.093
12Shane Greene Tigers1.36.381.930.9519228281.088
13Liam Hendriks Athletics0.9611.661.080.98933036.11.045
RankNameTeamWPARE24pLIWPA/LISDMDGIPEff. Rate
14Alex Colomé White Sox1.388.121.080.911212827.11.028
15Trevor Gott Giants0.547.250.810.957425290.980
16Ken Giles Blue Jays1.27.671.990.7512125250.885
17Adrian Sampson Rangers1.057.10.760.6950729.10.864
18Greg Holland Diamondbacks1.317.21.770.71222322.20.841
19Will Harris Astros0.528.381.130.85328250.824
20Emilio Pagán Rays0.716.371.250.778323260.823
21Jalen Beeks Rays0.9511.630.920.759417560.811
22Aroldis Chapman Yankees0.758.771.860.671332826.20.790
23Chad Bettis Rockies0.199.460.730.73631827.10.788
24Taylor Rogers Twins1.68.232.010.6315226300.767
25Amir Garrett Reds1.339.561.340.6516434300.762

RankNameTeamWPARE24pLIWPA/LISDMDGIPEff. Rate
26Yoan López Diamondbacks-0.066.251.020.747531270.755
27Sam Dyson Giants0.935.170.860.6712130320.729
28Yusmeiro Petit Athletics0.617.30.990.719635400.726
29Javy Guerra - - --0.023.180.440.71231927.10.704
30Marcus Walden Red Sox1.3410.071.370.621162839.20.666
31Héctor Neris Phillies1.197.861.80.531633030.10.643
32Pedro Báez Dodgers0.346.161.380.581563231.10.636
33Yimi Garcia Dodgers-0.381.010.570.64142524.20.635
34Shawn Kelley Rangers0.718.682.10.521242524.20.635
35Jared Hughes Reds0.270.950.68529300.624
36Nick Wittgren Indians1.318.891.140.481132224.10.614
37Zack Britton Yankees0.835.591.380.531523029.10.613
38Ty Buttrey Angels0.889.171.640.491643234.20.591
RankNameTeamWPARE24pLIWPA/LISDMDGIPEff. Rate
39Ryne Harper Twins0.272.290.770.568630280.565
40Bryan Shaw Rockies0.065.8910.521253841.10.546
41Diego CastilloRays1.446.591.870.461643031.20.544
42Adam Ottavino Yankees0.749.821.540.4512531310.522
43John Brebbia Cardinals-0.16.450.690.5533235.20.511
44Andrew Chafin Diamondbacks1.216.471.120.43723422.10.473
45Tommy Kahnle Yankees0.554.211.030.441153126.20.471
46Hansel Robles Angels0.183.651.240.451053332.10.467
47Ryan Brasier Red Sox-0.632.41.480.441073128.20.448
48Michael Lorenzen Reds0.142.620.880.44963136.20.447
49Jordan Hicks Cardinals-0.421.771.650.421042523.10.438
50Adrian Houser Brewers0.475.471.150.4321221.10.422

It will be curious, but not surprising to see some of the relievers within this week’s top 10:

  1. Ryan Pressly , Houston

  2. Brad Hand , Cleveland

  3. Josh Hader , Milwaukee

  4. Kirby Yates , San Diego

  5. Roberto Osuna , Houston

  6. John Gant , St. Louis

  7. Brandon Workman , Boston

  8. Giovanny Gallegos , St. Louis

  9. Scott Oberg , Colorado

  10. Will Smith , San Francisco

Two of the top five relievers, virtually all season, reside on the Astros roster. Both Pressly and Osuna have never dropped below fifth in any week this year with last week’s number five spot representing the low water mark for either pitcher. Brad Hand riding the wave of 20 straight saves and a dominating last 12 games during which he’s not given up an earned run with a 0.62 WHIP in 13 innings while racking up 21 strikeouts versus three walks.

Kirby Yates started the metric at spot number 28 but keeps moving up weekly landing at fourth in the latest installment. He’s converted all 25 save chances this year along with his last 32 save chances dating back to August 28th of last year. His last 43 innings yields a 1.47 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 36.6 strikeouts minus walks percentage and 72:12 K:BB for the Padres.

Potential trade chip Will Smith secured the last spot in the top-10 last week and notched his 19th save in a row on Monday night against the Dodgers. Smith’s appeared in seven of the Giants last 10 contests with six saves. Dating back to when he assumed the closer role, Smith’s converted 33 of 36 save chances over his last 59.2 innings with a 2.86 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 30.6 strikeouts minus walks percentage and 84:15 K:BB. Plus, his saves against the Brewers and Dodgers should enhance his trade stock.

Flying below the radar, Giovanny Gallegos and John Gant of the Cardinals. Yes, Jordan Hicks and his explosive fastball garner most of the attention since he gets the majority of saves and Carlos Martínez can fill in when needed, but Gallegos and Gant provide the bridge for save chances. Gallegos has recorded a strikeout in 23 of his 27 outings this year with multiple strikeouts in 17 of them. He’s been unscored upon his last nine appearances spanning 12 innings since May 26th and Gallegos’ stranded 19 of 21 inherited runners this season. Gant’s been the spackle in this bullpen filling in wherever needed with six wins, three saves and 10 holds.

Also pitching well of late, Liam Hendriks of the A’s. He notched his sixth hold on Monday and been scoreless in 18 of his last 19 appearances as a reliever. This does not account for the two earned runs allowed as an opener on May 29th but it does get absorbed in his last 22.1 innings during which Hendriks owns a 1.21 ERA with 28 strikeouts against nine walks with a 1.07 WHIP and .192 batting average against.

For those worried about the health of Wade Davis , note where Scott Oberg appears above and do not cut bait just yet. Oblique injuries can be tricky, so try to avoid an itchy trigger finger with the Rockies playing better of late and potentially needing Oberg to get saves if necessary. For as tough as it can be to predict a Red Sox save, Brandon Workman places in this metric’s top-10, so, he could get a handful of chances before the All-Star break. Stay tuned.

Due to the metric running off of qualified relievers, Matt and I will work on incorporating pitchers weekly going forward so names like Aaron Bummer , Anthony Swarzak , and others do not fall between the cracks. Also, if interested, tracking bulk relievers such as Jalen Beeks or Félix Peña will also be available to determine who to add for spot starts working behind an opener.

There’s no perfect way to measure a reliever, but this metric tries to remove the noise and the never-ending chasing of saves to determine which relievers pitch the best in high leverage moments for their teams. If curious as to why teams will be circling the Giants bullpen at the trade deadline, just take a look at the chart.

TeamTotal ERTeam Rank# of PAvg. ER of PRank of Avg
Cardinals6.0421160.3781
Giants5.6722160.3552
Astros4.1943140.33
Rockies4.1084150.2744
Red Sox3.8215180.2125
Rays3.126150.2086
Reds2.0057100.27
White Sox1.9028160.1198
Royals1.8399170.10810
Yankees1.7110150.1149
TeamTotal ERTeam Rank# of PAvg. ER of PRank of Avg
Brewers1.44811180.0813
Indians1.42812150.09512
Athletics1.35613130.10411
Blue Jays1.02914160.06415
Dodgers0.9515140.06814
Diamondbacks0.72916150.04916
Cubs-0.3141717-0.01817
Twins-0.4441814-0.03218
Padres-0.451914-0.03219
Rangers-0.7432017-0.04421
TeamTotal ERTeam Rank# of PAvg. ER of PRank of Avg
Mariners-0.7682121-0.03720
Braves-0.9192218-0.05122
Marlins-1.332312-0.11128
Nationals-1.3962414-0.125
Phillies-1.4332521-0.06823
Angels-1.6582619-0.08724
Pirates-1.7362717-0.10226
Mets-1.8862818-0.10527
Orioles-3.7212921-0.17729
Tigers-3.7543016-0.23530

Be on the lookout for weekly updates of the Reliever Efficiency Rate. Just another way for Fantasy Alarm to keep its family ahead of the competition.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com