MLB Advanced Analytics: Exit Velocity The Last 10 Days
Published: Aug 27, 2020
It’s never a bad time to take the temperature on who’s hitting the ball hardest in MLB. Since we’re dealing with smaller samples than we’re used to for season-long metrics it’s a particularly excellent time to do so. We’re also seeing plenty of hitters shrug off early slumps after an unorthodox training camp, to say the least. Exit velocity is one of our favorite metrics to look under the hood and see who’s making the best contact.
Here is the leaderboard for average exit velocity the last ten days with at least 50 pitches faced.
José Abreu is the hottest hitter in baseball. His home run pace is bordering on historic. What a shame it’s in a shortened season and we won’t know what could have been over 162. At least we can enjoy the ride.
If it weren’t for his elder countryman above, Luis Robert would be garnering ever more attention. He smashes baseballs and swipes bags aggressively. Pitchers will challenge him with offspeed offerings and strikeouts have been his achilles heel. It will be fun to see if he can make adjustments and continue being a 2020 value.
Gregory Polanco has returned from the land of the baseball dead. He’s certainly squaring the ball up right now. The results aren’t quite there yet with a .136 AVG. That could come up in a hurry if he continues to put the ball in play this hard.
Recent call-up Jake Fraley is a pet favorite of mine. His speed is my main interest but this exit velo is fun to see. It’s only 8 at-bats so let’s see where things go. He can easily stick as the Mariniers CF of the future with a good campaign, however.
Christian Yelich was one of the names drafters had the confidence to select ahead of dad to be Mike Trout . It hasn’t panned out so far. Yelich is starting to swing the bat, though. Let’s see if a heater from the Brewer can raise the fortunes of his drafters.
If you’re in a league with daily changes or playing DFS, Howie Kendrick is always a solid play when facing a LHP. He’s always been able to generate quality contact off of southpaw’s. Keep an eye peeled for lefties the Nats will face. With Boston twice on the upcoming schedule he should get a couple bites at Martín Pérez .
Player News
Willi Castro (oblique) could return to the Twins’ lineup this weekend.
Castro has been sidelined with an oblique injury since April 16th and was finally placed on the IL late last week. He has been swinging the bat right-handed and plans to swing left-handed on Tuesday. If his body responds well to that, the Twins could bring him back for this weekend’s series against Boston, which could cut into the playing time for Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien.
Royce Lewis (hamstring) will play 10 innings in a doubleheader on Tuesday and could return to Minnesota on May 6th.
Lewis will play 10 innings as the team’s designated hitter during a doubleheader for Triple-A St. Paul on Tuesday and then play a full game at third base on Wednesday, assuming Tuesday goes well. Even though that could mean Lewis returns this weekend, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes suggests “it’s likelier Lewis will play several more games over the weekend and return when the Twins open a homestand on May 6.”
Matt Wallner (hamstring) just started jogging on the treadmill on Monday.
Wallner has been out with a Grade 3 hamstring strain since April 15th. He has yet to swing a bat and will be re-evaluated by the Twins when they return home next week. We won’t have a firm timeline for Wallner’s return until he starts swinging, but it sounds like there’s a chance we don’t see him back until late May or early June.
Twins trainer Nick Paparesta said Luke Keaschall (forearm) will rest and won’t be re-evaluated “for at least a month.”
Keaschall suffered a non-displaced fracture in his right forearm, which halted his impressive MLB debut. The injury won’t require surgery, but the Twins will take time to allow it to heal on its own. “It’s probably going to be a couple of months before he’s back into playing games,” Paparesta said. When he does come back, there’s no guarantee he slots right back into the Minnesota lineup, so we may not see Keaschall back in the big leagues until the end of the summer.
Shane Bieber (elbow) is set to throw simulated games in the Arizona Complex League.
Bieber has said that he’s feeling healthy but is being deliberate in his rehab to ensure that he doesn’t come back too soon. The veteran’s target date had always been sometime around the All-Star break, so this would keep him on schedule. After Bieber throws simulated games, he would likely make a few rehab starts before returning to Cleveland. If all goes well, he could be back by the end of June.
Tony Gonsolin (back) will return from the injured list and start for the Dodgers on Wednesday against the Marlins.
Gonsolin missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was then sidelined by a back injury in spring after just three innings. The 30-year-old had a great season in 2022 and has been a solid starter for the Dodgers over his career. His lack of strikeouts limits his fantasy value a bit, but his velocity has been up in his rehab outings, so he could be worth a stash in deeper formats while he remains in the Dodgers’ rotation.