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Alex Fast and the folks over at Pitcherlist showed last season that you can get an edge over just swinging strike rate by factoring in called strikes. They termed the resulting metric Called Strikes + Whiffs (CSW). CSW% gives a more true representation of the optimal pitch result: the batter fails to make contact on a strike. The PL guys define these CSW% bins: 40+% elite, 30-35% good, < 25% is a red flag. The season is young but your window for adjustments is also ending very soon. Let’s examine the pitchers doing the most to give you safe outcomes.
Here’s the CSW% leaderboard with a 25 pitch minimum.
Dylan Bundy may be turning a corner with the move to LA. It’s only two starts, against two questionable offenses (OAK, SEA), but he’s going to be on this leaderboard even with a modest regression. He’s tweaked his pitch mix, using a fastball that leads to trouble less in favor of some nasty breaking stuff a la Patrick Corbin .
If you drafted Shane Bieber you’re probably in first place, at least in pitching points. He’s come out of the gate mowing hitters down. This is what happens when a pitcher with elite control figures out how to strike out batters at an advanced rate.
Captain Jack Flaherty has been limited due to the Cardinals COVID-19 issues. He appears to be picking up where he left off in 2019. Keep that in mind as the team is allowed back on the field.
Seeing Aaron Nola miss bats is encouraging. He’s a pitcher that gets into trouble when he falls behind. The breaking stuff isn’t as devastating as many of those on this leaderboard. He needs to be sharp to thrive.
I also want to look at the pitchers with the largest sample of pitches. These may hold truer.
Sonny Gray seems to be all the way over the arm troubles that almost cost him his career a few years back. He’s dropping hammers with pitch movement for two straight seasons now. Here’s hoping it’s always sunny for Sonny.
If you took the gamble that the gains Frankie Montas made in 2019 weren’t a product of PEDs but rather because of the devastating splitter he added, it’s paying off.
Brady Singer has shown he’s ready to pitch at this level. At least by missing bats and getting strikes.
Kyle Hendricks gets the job done with control. The Brewers couldn’t figure out the zone and got K’d 9 times in the opener. He’s modestly struck out 3 in each appearance since. That’s likely to be were his K total resides.
There isn’t a site currently publishing the CSW% stat. It’s an easy one to calculate on your own using baseball savant. Give yourself an advantage over your leaguemates and fellow DFSers. It’s going to be the kind of season that requires such ingenuity.
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.