MLB Advanced Analytics: CSW Rate: Part Two

We’re almost a week into June. Metrics are stabilizing and now’s a great time to check back in on CSW Rate, the strike metric the team over at Pitcher List has been publicizing. Called Strikes plus Whiffs, or CSW, accounts for called strikes, swinging strikes, and foul tips into the glove but excludes foul balls. A cousin to swinging strike rate, CSW% goes a step further incorporating the other “good” strikes of called strikes and fouls into the glove. They are the strikes that can do no harm. Effective pitchers can generate them the most. CSW% is more strongly correlated to SIERA than SwStr% for starting pitchers. If you value SwStr% then CSW% should earn your attention, as well.

CSW% should confirm the pitchers with strong performances and offer some hope for an underperforming one. Here’s the CSW% top 20.

• Shane Beiber has found another gear. His recent results are not luck.

• Chris Sale had his spring training in April and has since rebounded into the machine gun he’s always been.

• We saw Lucas Giolito ’s name on this list a month ago, so it’s not that surprising he’s still up there and having tremendous success.

• Enjoy the ups with Stephen Strasburg before the downs hit.

• Griffin Canning has decent stuff. Nevertheless, I’m somewhat surprised he’s on the list. His command likely keeps him in the running with these other pitching magicians.

• Michael Wacha appears to have lost his out pitch. When his stuff gets flat he’s in big trouble.

• Jhoulys Chacín finally had drafters buying into him and then he betrays us like this? His home park doesn’t help matters but where are the strikes from this strikeout artist?

• Another Brewer, Zach Davies hot streak may have been smoke and mirrors. He’s a contact pitcher and never going to strike out many batters. That gets hairy in Milwaukee.

• You can get an occasional streaming start when Marill Kelly is at home. Other than that, he’s another contact pitcher at the mercy of a juiced ball.

• It’s somewhat surprising that Yonny Chirinos is on here given his success this season. He leans on a heavy sinker and it’s resulting in (play,) outs.

Check out Alex Fast on Twitter if you want to keep up with CSW. He updates results frequently and is an all-around good follow. You can also dive into his Open Source CSW Archive if you want to play around with some numbers yourself. Fantasy Baseball is a community. It’s at it’s best when analysts like Alex do great work and share what’s behind it.