As the first half rolls along and we get a solid base of at-bats for a more significant sample we can start to look for in-season risers and fallers. Exit velocity and barrel% make a great tandem for examining who’s been hot for the last ten days. May is a turning point for many fantasy teams. These statcast numbers can hopefully help you get some clarity on how to proceed.
In the chart below you see exit velocity and barrel% broken out for games prior to 5/5 and then the last ten days, along with the change in each. Note an #N/A just means they haven’t hit a barrel in the sample, which isn’t uncommon.
Exit Velocity | Barrel% | |||||
Player | <5/5 | Last 10 | Diff | <5/5 | Last 10 | Diff |
85.2 | 100.7 | 15.5 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | |
86.8 | 96.8 | 10 | #N/A | 4.1 | #N/A | |
82.9 | 91.8 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |
88.2 | 96.5 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | |
78.3 | 86.5 | 8.2 | 0.5 | #N/A | #N/A | |
82.9 | 91.1 | 8.2 | 1.8 | #N/A | #N/A | |
84.8 | 92.8 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.8 | |
82.8 | 90.6 | 7.8 | #N/A | 2 | #N/A | |
89.8 | 97 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | |
91.6 | 98.6 | 7 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | |
82.8 | 89.6 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | |
79.1 | 85.7 | 6.6 | #N/A | 1.9 | #N/A | |
88.3 | 94.8 | 6.5 | 1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | |
87.2 | 93.6 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | |
76.9 | 83.1 | 6.2 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | |
90.3 | 96.3 | 6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | -0.3 | |
85.7 | 91.7 | 6 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | |
91.4 | 97.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | -0.6 | |
89.5 | 95.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | |
85.5 | 91.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | |
Brandon Dixon is obviously smoking hot. I doubt he’s a full season contributor but if you have a need he’s a decent MI add short term. Robinson Chirinos has been feasting on weaker pitching so don’t go overboard for him. If he was dropped in a format where you need a catcher (who doesn’t) he’s a good option against lefties.Speaking of catcher needs, Jason Castro is a pretty solid option with Mitch Garver hitting the IL for a bit. CJ Cron and Rhys Hoskins are looking more dialed in lately. They make a nice DFS play while they’re heating up.
Let’s also look at the players not generating power in at-bats.
Exit Velocity | Barrel% | |||||
Player | <5/5 | Last 10 | Diff | <5/5 | Last 10 | Diff |
90.8 | 84.9 | -5.9 | 1 | #N/A | #N/A | |
90.6 | 84.7 | -5.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.3 | |
92.5 | 86.4 | -6.1 | 0.8 | #N/A | #N/A | |
88.9 | 82.6 | -6.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | |
87.6 | 81.2 | -6.4 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | |
93 | 86.5 | -6.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.4 | |
92.8 | 86.2 | -6.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | -1.1 | |
88.5 | 81.8 | -6.7 | 1.2 | #N/A | #N/A | |
96 | 89 | -7 | 3 | 1.4 | -1.6 | |
90.9 | 83.8 | -7.1 | 2 | #N/A | #N/A | |
95.6 | 88.4 | -7.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | -0.8 | |
88.4 | 81.2 | -7.2 | 1.3 | #N/A | #N/A | |
90 | 82.6 | -7.4 | 2.1 | #N/A | #N/A | |
86.4 | 78.6 | -7.8 | 0.7 | #N/A | #N/A | |
87.4 | 79.1 | -8.3 | 0.9 | #N/A | #N/A | |
91.4 | 83 | -8.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -0.4 | |
95.1 | 86.6 | -8.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | -1.8 | |
90.7 | 81.7 | -9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | |
90.8 | 80 | -10.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | |
91.6 | 76.6 | -15 | 1.9 | #N/A | #N/A | |
If you’re a José Ramírez owner I feel for you. He’s destroying my Ottoneu team. Things surely can only get better. Tim Beckham ’s hot start is well behind us now. As is another Mariner’s in Dan Vogelbach. Vogie has too many holes in his swing to ever be consistent. If you can find a better catcher, Jorge Alfaro is a drop. I’m ignoring Nelson Cruz ’ numbers here as one of his games included a wrist injury.
You can find all of these at Baseball Savant for your own perusing. I wouldn’t use this data to make a drastic move but a well-played buy low or DFS discount can go a long way. Remember that fantasy baseball is an exercise in patience. Be judicious with your roster moves.
Player News
Tanner Scott struck out three in a scoreless ninth to get a save Wednesday versus the Rockies.
Scott did allow a hit, so it’s up to others to determine whether he struck out the side. Whether he did or not, it’s as good as Scott has looked as a Dodger, and he threw 11-of-11 pitches for strikes; impressive regardless, but especially for a pitcher who sometimes has issues with control. Scott should continue to see plenty of save chances for this loaded Dodgers’ club.
Freddie Freeman doubled and homered in the Dodgers’ win over the Rockies on Monday.
Michael Toglia hit a grand slam, but the Rockies lost Monday to the Dodgers.
Shohei Ohtani went 2-for-5 with a homer and two RBI in an 8-7 win Saturday over the Rockies.
Bobby Miller allowed six earned runs over three innings in a no-decision vs. the Rockies on Wednesday.
Miller was making his first start of the 2025 season, and it’s hard to fathom it went how he wanted it to. Fortunately for him and the fantasy managers who streamed him against the lowly Rockies, he received seven runs of support while he was in, so he wasn’t charged with a loss. He did strike out seven, but he allowed eight hits as well; two of those hits leaving the ballpark. The biggest blow was a grand slam by Michael Toglia, buth e pitched shakily — to put it nicely — for most of the contest. There’s no start scheduled, but if Miller does get another outing, it’ll likely come against the Cubs on Wednesday.
Germán Márquez recorded just two outs while being charged for seven runs in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday.
Márquez was handed a 1-0 lead going into his first and final inning, and it lasted just four pitches before Shohei Ohtani smashed a solo homer. He gave up another homer two batters later to Freddie Freeman, and the 30-year-old allowed four more hits and the same amount of runs before exiting. It’s hard to imagine that anyone used Márquez that didn’t have to Wednesday, but for those who did: whoops. He’ll be on the mound next week against the Royals and look to lower and unsightly 8.27 ERA.